ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

:uarrow: That's what I pointed out a couple of days ago of how the Euro has been trending towards a weakening MJO as it moves eastward from the Western Maritime Continent into the western Pacific.

Well then.

This El Nino busts, and we continue waiting for one for the next 2 years. We're over due for an El Nino and overdue for a super El Nino as well.

Meanwhile the atmosphere remains stagnant and we continue having subpar atlantic hurricane seasons, droughts in California and Texas.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do not see anything that points to not having an El Nino this year (is pretty much here already), but what I do not see is having a moderate to strong El Nino, that's for sure.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

ESPI has gone up in the past few weeks from the around -170 that was when it bottomed to now around -24. Something is still not clicking in the atmosphere that doesn't let ENSO go thru a more steady warming. PDO should be updated in the coming days to see how that is going.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: That's what I pointed out a couple of days ago of how the Euro has been trending towards a weakening MJO as it moves eastward from the Western Maritime Continent into the western Pacific.

Well then.

This El Nino busts, and we continue waiting for one for the next 2 years. We're over due for an El Nino and overdue for a super El Nino as well.

Meanwhile the atmosphere remains stagnant and we continue having subpar atlantic hurricane seasons, droughts in California and Texas.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do not see anything that points to not having an El Nino this year (is pretty much here already), but what I do not see is having a moderate to strong El Nino, that's for sure.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It's 2012 all over again where it's almost here but not there.

[Alyono]

ENSO CLIPER model may again prove to be the most accurate ENSO model

[Yellow Evan]

I really doubt this El Nino is gonna bust. I think we're too far along. 2012 had -PDO readings and we have more sub-surface warming. Remember, it's still early.

[euro6208]

Has it been that long already? 27 years since 1997?

I remember all the talk about this year being similiar to 97 but now it is gone...

Any el nino either modoki or eastern based will be likely this year but I think this is a huge bust.

We will likely have to wait for 2,3, or 4 more years for another 97.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It is because there is no MJO yet. Things will go closer to El Niño, no matter what strength of the MJO, still not going to bust. I would go for at least one trimonthly reading of 1.5ºC this year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This cooling was even predicted by models since before, and then sharply rising by JJA. They have it peaking by NDJ. In fact, the cooling is quite evident over the subsurface, but MUCH LESS rapidly than expected. We are still ahead of many other El Niño events (but 2002 was ahead, but a very slow developing one) and I am not surprised if it cools down.

[ninel conde]

after a very brief downturn the SOI is +30.0 today.

[NDG]

And 30 day average back up to +8.1

[NDG]

Has it been that long already? 27 years since 1997?

I remember all the talk about this year being similiar to 97 but now it is gone...

Any el nino either modoki or eastern based will be likely this year but I think this is a huge bust.

We will likely have to wait for 2,3, or 4 more years for another 97.

17 years, not 27 years.

[stormcruisin]

http://esminfo.prenhall.com/science/geo ... oNina.html

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... ,-1.72,512

It appears the SIO pressure switch and the ending of the trade winds is just not happening atm.

[euro6208]

Has it been that long already? 27 years since 1997?

I remember all the talk about this year being similiar to 97 but now it is gone...

Any el nino either modoki or eastern based will be likely this year but I think this is a huge bust.

We will likely have to wait for 2,3, or 4 more years for another 97.

17 years, not 27 years.

oops looks like i was counting each finger 2 times lol

[cycloneye]

The large subsurface pool has mantained for the most part.What is needed is a big reinsforcement to seal the El Nino deal officially.

[asd123]

What is going on with this El Nino? In my opinion, especially looking at the subsurface ssta map (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0 5th image down), this potential el nino is heading towards a bust. In the past few weeks and months the ssta subsurface warm pool looked very healthy and primed toward an el nino, but the latest trend in the past week has been steadily trending cooler, with a large chunk of negative anomalies growing westward and damaging the warm pool.

Some people on here will say that the cool pool might help the warm pool surface, but that hasn't been happening. In the upper right corner of the image right above the massive warm pool the +2 anomalies have been rapidly shrinking, as well as the whole warm pool itself shrinking while the cooler anomalies expand eastward.

Additionally, the SOI has not been cooperating. SOI 30 and 90 days have been steadily going upward, (slight dip past couple of days, yesterday 30). Bottom line: overall upward trend.

Can anyone on this board including pro mets offer what is going on and offer a prediction as to what will happen in the next couple days, weeks, months and if they think this el nino is a bust.

[Yellow Evan]

What is going on with this El Nino? In my opinion, especially looking at the subsurface ssta map (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0 5th image down), this potential el nino is heading towards a bust. In the past few weeks and months the ssta subsurface warm pool looked very healthy and primed toward an el nino, but the latest trend in the past week has been steadily trending cooler, with a large chunk of negative anomalies growing westward and damaging the warm pool.

Some people on here will say that the cool pool might help the warm pool surface, but that hasn't been happening. In the upper right corner of the image right above the massive warm pool the +2 anomalies have been rapidly shrinking, as well as the whole warm pool itself shrinking while the cooler anomalies expand eastward.

Additionally, the SOI has not been cooperating. SOI 30 and 90 days have been steadily going upward, (slight dip past couple of days, yesterday 30). Bottom line: overall upward trend.

Can anyone on this board including pro mets offer what is going on and offer a prediction as to what will happen in the next couple days, weeks, months and if they think this el nino is a bust.

How will this bust? El Nino fluctuates in intensity. SOI wasn't cooperating for a while in 2009 either. Look at the EPSI and PDO for proof. I think we'll get an El Nino, but have an unusually high SOI throughout. BTW, why is the SOI so high? Rounded off, we still have +05C anomalies and MJO will come eventually. Be patient, we're getting there. We have plenty of time before it becomes too late. We're ahead of most El Ninos.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[stormlover2013]

We will prob get a El Niño but it won't be like some people predicted.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

What is going on with this El Nino? In my opinion, especially looking at the subsurface ssta map (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0 5th image down), this potential el nino is heading towards a bust. In the past few weeks and months the ssta subsurface warm pool looked very healthy and primed toward an el nino, but the latest trend in the past week has been steadily trending cooler, with a large chunk of negative anomalies growing westward and damaging the warm pool.

Some people on here will say that the cool pool might help the warm pool surface, but that hasn't been happening. In the upper right corner of the image right above the massive warm pool the +2 anomalies have been rapidly shrinking, as well as the whole warm pool itself shrinking while the cooler anomalies expand eastward.

Additionally, the SOI has not been cooperating. SOI 30 and 90 days have been steadily going upward, (slight dip past couple of days, yesterday 30). Bottom line: overall upward trend.

Can anyone on this board including pro mets offer what is going on and offer a prediction as to what will happen in the next couple days, weeks, months and if they think this el nino is a bust.

How will this bust? El Nino fluctuates in intensity. SOI wasn't cooperating for a while in 2009 either. Look at the EPSI and PDO for proof. I think we'll get an El Nino, but have an unusually high SOI throughout. BTW, why is the SOI so high? Rounded off, we still have +05C anomalies and MJO will come eventually. Be patient, we're getting there. We have plenty of time before it becomes too late. We're ahead of most El Ninos.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

Indeed, it is still early to tell. AN El Nino is very likely this year and that IS official. PDO for April is at +1.13, and it is steadily very positive, and is the highest April pre-El Nino reading since 1986. And the SOI is high due to the lack of MJO over the SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, where Tahiti is, and pressures there are quite high now, at around 1013 mb. AND YES, we are also ahead of maybe 75% of the events. The subsurface has gained back +6C anomalies, with some +3C anomalies surfacing. The cooling we may be seeing right now is not surprising, predicted by the models at least 3 months ago. And we are even WAY ahead of 2012. The subsurface warm pool is cooling way slower than expected, and is even expected to strengthen by ASO or SON!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

What is going on with this El Nino? In my opinion, especially looking at the subsurface ssta map (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0 5th image down), this potential el nino is heading towards a bust. In the past few weeks and months the ssta subsurface warm pool looked very healthy and primed toward an el nino, but the latest trend in the past week has been steadily trending cooler, with a large chunk of negative anomalies growing westward and damaging the warm pool.

Some people on here will say that the cool pool might help the warm pool surface, but that hasn't been happening. In the upper right corner of the image right above the massive warm pool the +2 anomalies have been rapidly shrinking, as well as the whole warm pool itself shrinking while the cooler anomalies expand eastward.

Additionally, the SOI has not been cooperating. SOI 30 and 90 days have been steadily going upward, (slight dip past couple of days, yesterday 30). Bottom line: overall upward trend.

Can anyone on this board including pro mets offer what is going on and offer a prediction as to what will happen in the next couple days, weeks, months and if they think this el nino is a bust.

In many ways, we're already seeing a pattern similar to an El Nino event. Waters along the equatorial Pacific definitely meet the criteria (image below). The subtropical jet is highly amplified across the Atlantic, with shear well above-average in the Gulf, Caribbean, and tropical Atlantic. Water levels off Peru are very high. India is beginning to suffer from record-breaking heat. Once the MJO moves out into the central/eastern Pacific, the resultant westerly winds along the equator should be the final kick for the atmosphere to fully respond.

As an aside, the subsurface loop may be deceiving to those that don't understand it. Anomalies vary by location and time of year. What was incredibly anomalous in February and March in the central Pacific isn't as much so in June in the eastern Pacific.

[Hurricaneman]

What is going on with this El Nino? In my opinion, especially looking at the subsurface ssta map (viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=0 5th image down), this potential el nino is heading towards a bust. In the past few weeks and months the ssta subsurface warm pool looked very healthy and primed toward an el nino, but the latest trend in the past week has been steadily trending cooler, with a large chunk of negative anomalies growing westward and damaging the warm pool.

Some people on here will say that the cool pool might help the warm pool surface, but that hasn't been happening. In the upper right corner of the image right above the massive warm pool the +2 anomalies have been rapidly shrinking, as well as the whole warm pool itself shrinking while the cooler anomalies expand eastward.

Additionally, the SOI has not been cooperating. SOI 30 and 90 days have been steadily going upward, (slight dip past couple of days, yesterday 30). Bottom line: overall upward trend.

Can anyone on this board including pro mets offer what is going on and offer a prediction as to what will happen in the next couple days, weeks, months and if they think this el nino is a bust.

How will this bust? El Nino fluctuates in intensity. SOI wasn't cooperating for a while in 2009 either. Look at the EPSI and PDO for proof. I think we'll get an El Nino, but have an unusually high SOI throughout. BTW, why is the SOI so high? Rounded off, we still have +05C anomalies and MJO will come eventually. Be patient, we're getting there. We have plenty of time before it becomes too late. We're ahead of most El Ninos.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

Indeed, it is still early to tell. AN El Nino is very likely this year and that IS official. PDO for April is at +1.13, and it is steadily very positive, and is the highest April pre-El Nino reading since 1986. And the SOI is high due to the lack of MJO over the SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, where Tahiti is, and pressures there are quite high now, at around 1013 mb. AND YES, we are also ahead of maybe 75% of the events. The subsurface has gained back +6C anomalies, with some +3C anomalies surfacing. The cooling we may be seeing right now is not surprising, predicted by the models at least 3 months ago. And we are even WAY ahead of 2012. The subsurface warm pool is cooling way slower than expected, and is even expected to strengthen by ASO or SON!

some people were saying this could possibly be a super nino in the poll earlier in the year but those that went with anywhere between 1.2 to 1.8 anomalies are probably going to end up closer to reality but who really knows as the SOI could suddenly plummet and we do indeed get a super nino by winter

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products