2014 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

More records are being broken in this amazing 2014 season.From 15:00z advisory discussion of Hurricane Cristina at 130kts.

With Hurricanes Amanda and Cristina reaching category 4 status, this
is the first time there have been two category 4 hurricanes in June
in the eastern North Pacific basin since the beginning of the
satellite era in 1966. Prior to Cristina, the earliest second
category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached
that threshold on July 1.

[CrazyC83]

Could this be the EPAC's version of the 2005 Atlantic season? It is only expected to get better for favorable conditions as the season progresses...

[CrazyC83]

The MJO, while strong, is holding stationary in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific right now, and most models forecast it to move very little through the end of the month (dubious?). It should eventually eject into the West Hemisphere sometime in early to mid-July. Once that happens, the Pacific hurricane season will *really* get underway. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see over 1 Category 5 hurricane by the time the season is through, especially once the atmosphere responds to the developing El Nino.

I'm expecting somewhere between 22-24 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes by the time the season is through.

way too low on majors. i expect 8-10 as everything will over perform.

Agreed...the EPAC could see more majors in 2014 than the Atlantic sees tropical storms...and I expect to see multiple Cat 5's as well.

If the warm water is deep (like a classic El Nino), upwelling won't matter too much. It didn't prevent Rita from bombing over the same track as Katrina in 2005...same situation.

[Yellow Evan]

Could this be the EPAC's version of the 2005 Atlantic season? It is only expected to get better for favorable conditions as the season progresses...

Who knows at this point. Let's compared 2014 to 1985 and 1992 instead first.

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF hints development at end of the run

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF hints development at end of the run

GFS shows nothing, but hasn't been cooperative lately.

[Yellow Evan]

As for fastest 3rd major, the EPAC has until July 5 to beat that, currently set by Darby 92.

[cycloneye]

ACE continues to soar as Cristina begins to weaken slowly. As of the 21:00z advisory is at 25.9475.

[cycloneye]

Here is a good graphic that I found in another forum about the cat 5's since 1950 in EPAC. With the conditions favorable in the basin,I would not be surprised if 1 to maybe 2 cat 5's occur.

[hurricanes1234]

Category 5 hurricanes are rare in this basin. In order for one to form, conditions will need to be perfect. However, considering we've already had two Category 4 hurricanes well before the climatological peak, I think a Category 5 is certainly possible during the peak months, if everything becomes ideal for such an event. Out of the many hundreds of hurricanes in this basin, I believe only 14 made it to Category 5 status since reliable records began, which is pretty scarce. Also, considering they usually come in clusters in a single year, two does not seem impossible but again, conditions must be perfect.

[TheStormExpert]

Here is a good graphic that I found in another forum about the cat 5's since 1950 in EPAC. With the conditions favorable in the basin,I would not be surprised if 1 to maybe 2 cat 5's occur.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/2ql4chv.jpg

2010 was a somewhat record quiet season in the E-Pac due to the La Niña. Starting to wonder if we could see at least 2 Cat.5's especially if a moderate/strong El Niño develops.

[Kingarabian]

Category 5 hurricanes are rare in this basin. In order for one to form, conditions will need to be perfect. However, considering we've already had two Category 4 hurricanes well before the climatological peak, I think a Category 5 is certainly possible during the peak months, if everything becomes ideal for such an event. Out of the many hundreds of hurricanes in this basin, I believe only 14 made it to Category 5 status since reliable records began, which is pretty scarce. Also, considering they usually come in clusters in a single year, two does not seem impossible but again, conditions must be perfect.

Actually, Amanda and Cristine both have a shot at being Cat.5 in post-season analysis/

[Yellow Evan]

Here is a good graphic that I found in another forum about the cat 5's since 1950 in EPAC. With the conditions favorable in the basin,I would not be surprised if 1 to maybe 2 cat 5's occur.

It's derived from the WP article. I said on another forum 3 Cat 5's are possible, and I'm sticking with that. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Worth pointing out that I'm somewhat suspicious Cat 5's are missing from the 80's.

[Yellow Evan]

Category 5 hurricanes are rare in this basin. In order for one to form, conditions will need to be perfect. However, considering we've already had two Category 4 hurricanes well before the climatological peak, I think a Category 5 is certainly possible during the peak months, if everything becomes ideal for such an event. Out of the many hundreds of hurricanes in this basin, I believe only 14 made it to Category 5 status since reliable records began, which is pretty scarce. Also, considering they usually come in clusters in a single year, two does not seem impossible but again, conditions must be perfect.

Conditions don't have to be 100% perfect. Look at Celia 10, the EI'd at the last minute. Still, they have to be pretty close. I don't think Cristina will be upgraded to a Cat 5; however, I do think Amanda has a slight chance at being upped.

[Yellow Evan]

ANOTHER hurricane



Landfall

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like we are seeing many records broken this season. This would be a very historic season, indeed, with many intense hurricanes coming according to several forecasts, and also a record-breaking start on May 22nd as Amanda formed then later became a strong category 4 hurricane 2 km/h shy of category 5 strength! It also was the strongest in the basin before June and was the earliest category 4 ePac hurricane to form! Now, with a very tiny but very impressive major hurricane Cristina forming and Rapidly Intensifying by June 11-12, it became historic as it was the earliest 2nd major and 2nd category 4 since reliable records came. The ACE of the basin is at 27, which is 540% above the normal ACE to date at 5.

The ePac basin already has 2 hurricanes, which both became majors, and the average formation of a hurricane is on June 26, and for a major anytime in July! This is such an intense season, and it is not yet the peak of the season. We have had these 2 hurricanes which both became majors very early, and without any wet MJO over the North Pacific Ocean! It could perform even more when the wet MJO arrives, and let's see what the ePac and wPac will deliver when it arrives.

[TheStormExpert]

When is the official peak of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season?

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: When is the official peak of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season?

It has two. One in mid-July and one in late August (the 24th to be exact). A midsummer low occurs in either late July or early August.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like we are seeing many records broken this season. This would be a very historic season, indeed, with many intense hurricanes coming according to several forecasts, and also a record-breaking start on May 22nd as Amanda formed then later became a strong category 4 hurricane 2 km/h shy of category 5 strength! It also was the strongest in the basin before June and was the earliest category 4 ePac hurricane to form! Now, with a very tiny but very impressive major hurricane Cristina forming and Rapidly Intensifying by June 11-12, it became historic as it was the earliest 2nd major and 2nd category 4 since reliable records came. The ACE of the basin is at 27, which is 540% above the normal ACE to date at 5.

The ePac basin already has 2 hurricanes, which both became majors, and the average formation of a hurricane is on June 26, and for a major anytime in July! This is such an intense season, and it is not yet the peak of the season. We have had these 2 hurricanes which both became majors very early, and without any wet MJO over the North Pacific Ocean! It could perform even more when the wet MJO arrives, and let's see what the ePac and wPac will deliver when it arrives.

The averages listed on the NHC page is off. But this remarkable indeed. Who knows what this could have in store for us?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

While officially the NOAA and the HWRF [I guess some other models too] analyzed the lowest pressure of Cristina at 935 hPa, the GFS has the lowest pressure of Cristina, while having 131-kt category 4 hurricane winds, at 997 hPa.

I can't upload an image because the Internet Connection is currently very slow, leading to the photo/image hosting sites being down.