Texas Summer - 2014

[weatherdude1108]

Heavy rain with lightning, thunder, and downburst winds at the Weather dude Center. Freaking my dog out! Waiting for it to pass over so I can take her out to do her "business." 0.85 inches so far and counting! Hoping the "severe" part doesn't last much longer! Rain is nice though!

"
000
FXUS64 KEWX 130247
AFDEWX

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
947 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH AND HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND HAS MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE CWA AFTER 8Z. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SEVERE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING INHIBITION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OUT OF
THE HEAVIER STORMS...BUT STORM MOTIONS ARE BECOMING A FASTER AS
COMPLEX BECOMES DOMINATED BY COLD POOLS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK
UP OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATE
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS OVERTAKEN THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
AS WELL...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY.

HAMPSHIRE"

[Shoshana]

NE Austin is rockin' too. Our dog and the feral cat are not happy. Feral cat just got spayed and we were supposed to let her loose this afternoon but I decided to keep her an extra night because of the possibility of this storm system.

Portastorm - I think y'all are in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

[weatherdude1108]

1.37 inches last night. 0.88 on Monday. Total of 2.25 inches this week here at the casa. Loving this!

[weatherdude1108]

Lots of downed tree limbs and branches at and around my workplace. Looks like it was a little breezy last night.

[Portastorm]

NE Austin is rockin' too. Our dog and the feral cat are not happy. Feral cat just got spayed and we were supposed to let her loose this afternoon but I decided to keep her an extra night because of the possibility of this storm system.

Portastorm - I think y'all are in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

At one point I think we were in a box for a Tornado Warning and a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. The worst of the straight-line winds occurred to my west and impacted the western quarter of Travis County. Actually I was expecting a much worse storm than what we got. Based on TV media, you would have thought that there were multiple tornadoes on the ground at one point near Lake Travis. The storm was clearly collapsing by that point and any winds would have been a result of straight line winds ... just like what happened. But no need for me to rant about the hype factor caused by AUS on-air mets.

The good news is we received close to 1.7" of rain. Wonderful! Let's do it again soon.

[TexasF6]

Glad everyone is OK! There was HUGE CAPE and lots of spin in the atmosphere yesterday!!! We got off lucky this time. People's complacency in Austin bugs me to no end, as the 1922 Twin Sisters Event CAN happen again! I forgive the hype in lieu of the stupidity of people at being Weather Aware. Just my two cents.

[weatherdude1108]

Glad everyone is OK! There was HUGE CAPE and lots of spin in the atmosphere yesterday!!! We got off lucky this time. People's complacency in Austin bugs me to no end, as the 1922 Twin Sisters Event CAN happen again! I forgive the hype in lieu of the stupidity of people at being Weather Aware. Just my two cents.

I was on edge there for a while, glued to the radar on my phone! There was a tornado warning to my north, moving south, then skirted me to the west. I was very grateful! I think I was scarred for life 5 years ago when we had between ping pong and golf ball hail, stripping everything in site, followed three months later by a tornado warning, with the siren going off in the distance. I was alone during the tornado warning with the dog. We huddled in the downstairs bathroom, me covering her and her shaking. I could hear wind pounding against the door and windows. Luckily, it was just a downburst, with a few pellets of hail, and rain and lightning. No damage. But I remember I could feel my heart pounding against my chest at the time.

Those experiences humbled me. Before that, I would get excited to see severe weather. I don't look forward to anything past heavy rain, wind, and some lightning now. So anytime I see a severe weather forecast, I almost get an anxiety or panic attack, based on my previous experience. I know it is a borderline irrational fear, because every storm is different. I guess I developed a conditioned response to the threat of severe weather. Anyway. I prefer seeing that kind of stuff through the eyes of a professional storm chaser.

[South Texas Storms]

Beneficial heavy rain has fallen across much of Texas throughout the past 30 days. Some places have received over 10 inches since the middle of May! I'm very thankful for all of the rain we've gotten and hope the wet weather pattern continues.



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[weatherdude1108]

Beneficial heavy rain has fallen across much of Texas throughout the past 30 days. Some places have received over 10 inches since the middle of May! I'm very thankful for all of the rain we've gotten and hope the wet weather pattern continues.

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/3802/z93h.jpg

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Me too! Now if we can get El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley area in on the heavier rain, we'll be covered!

[JDawg512]

Was a pretty good amount of trees down due to straight line winds especially in West Austin down to the southwest to Dripping Springs although there were scattered down trees around the city. An ucle of mine that lives a little to the east of me had a good sized tree fall over in his yard. Lucky no damage in my immediate area with just a few small tree branches on the ground here and there. Got 1.52 inches of rain. There was a tornado that touched down in Burnet County and I saw some pictures of that. I'm glad that family who's 2 story home was ripped off it's foundation and dragged a football feild in length while they were inside made it out safely.

[Ntxw]

Summer Solstice is one week away. Still no signs of the annual first heat wave that often pushes the I-35 corridor cities above 100 for the first time annually around the solstice. Instead Austin, San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston will hover around 90 for the most of this week and next weekend. Then we are looking at the last week of June.

Statistically (given how lower we are) compared to 2011 is a far cry. With June being 1/3 of JJA it's unlikely we'll catch 2011 for the summer hell broke loose, so you can feel safe there even if we heat up the rest of the way. Long range guidance do not suggest this summer will be scorching. Those forecasts for hotter and drier are standing on a little less firm ground! Vegetation and soil is fairing decent compared to most recent summers, we'll need more rain activity every now and then to continue keeping ridges at bay when late July and August comes around.

Hot summers are built often the same way. You go from warm to hot late spring, the momentum is then carried over to earlier summer which peaks late summer. Not been the case so far. Anyway here are the SST anoms. Our old friend NE PAC is better than ever with El Nino close by.

[Portastorm]

That's just amazing how long the NE Pacific SSTs have remained so warm ... wow!

[Kludge]

It's also noteworthy that for the first time this year the GOM shows some warmer-than-normal SSTs. Home-grown tropical action might be a possibility.

[Ntxw]

It's also noteworthy that for the first time this year the GOM shows some warmer-than-normal SSTs. Home-grown tropical action might be a possibility.

It is on the daily's. The only problem is there has been screaming wind shear blasting from the NW in the gulf, Carib is being bombarded by 50-70kts wind shear as expected in your typical Nino conditions.

[ravyrn]

That's just amazing how long the NE Pacific SSTs have remained so warm ... wow!

The majority of the world's ocean seem abnormally warm in that pic.

[JDawg512]

Yea I'm not even paying attention to the hotter/drier outlooks at all. This summer should be pretty good in terms of temps. With what looks like at this time a strong El Niño and given the influence of Pacific moisture being pulled up, it's looking fairly good to at least see average summer rain, although still alittle behind for the June Average, it's not much.

[dhweather]

June 14 00Z Euro looks bad for rain chances. 10 day run total precip.

[Ntxw]

Could this be the next EPAC storm that feeds into westerlies (Douglas)? This basin is 600% above normal! Never happened this early before!

[Portastorm]

The forecasts for a hot/dry June that some have put out there are definitely NOT verifying. The first two weeks of June have shown a mean temp anomaly of normal to slightly below normal over two-thirds of Texas (the Panhandle has been slightly above normal). Precip has also been average to above average for the first two weeks for much of the state.

The West Texas office of the PWC reports that Lubbock has seen much above normal rainfall with even street flooding in parts of the city on Friday evening as a result of their latest encounter with a mesoscale convective system rolling east from New Mexico.

We'll see how the final half of the month shakes out.

And Happy Fathers Day to all of you dads out there!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Yea I'm not even paying attention to the hotter/drier outlooks at all. This summer should be pretty good in terms of temps. With what looks like at this time a strong El Niño and given the influence of Pacific moisture being pulled up, it's looking fairly good to at least see average summer rain, although still alittle behind for the June Average, it's not much.

Curious as to why Joe B is continuously tweeting that Nino will be minimal if it even occurs at all. Do you follow him and know what he sees differently?