ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nino 1+2 is back to warming, from a previous daily reading of +0.9, it is now back up to +1.1 to moderate threshold.

[stormcruisin]

Very good read By: Michael Ventrice , 2:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2014.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2694

[cycloneye]

Let's see if this forecast of MJO helps to create a WWB by the end of the month that reinforces the actual warm pool at sub-surface.

[LarryWx]

It doesn't get this wild very often for the SOI. From 6/9 to 6/12, the SOI rose ~59 points. The last time the SOI moved that much in just three days was a 67 point drop way back from 4/7 to 4/10 of 2002! The Euro runs of early June predicted this quite well. The accurate Euro is nothing new in general in this region as I've been following its performance on and off for a number of years now. That region of the world is highly predictable for the Euro op. and is in total contrast to other areas like the Arctic. Therefore, I'll continue to use it for future SOI predictions.

The SOI's in the low +30's of 6/12-13 are the highest since Jan. 15. However, the 0Z 6/13 Euro says that these last two days of low +30's will be the highest in the forseeable future. Nevertheless, there is still no a longlasting solid negative SOI streak being suggested through 6/24. This run is predicting the following: a drop to the +20's for 6/14 and then falling each day to somewhere within the -5 to -15 range 6/18. Next, a slow rise to the 0 to +10 range on ~6/20-1 is suggested, followed by a drop to the 0 to -10 range 6/22-4. That would leave the June month to date SOI averaging ~+3 then with only 6 days left in the month.


The 0Z 6/13 Euro ensemble mean still doesn't have any real suggestion of a sustained solid -SOI string through the end of the month.

[cycloneye]

Ummm,weak and modoki El Nino? Has flatten instead of being a mountain as is now just at +1.0C line at peak and the second graphic is what CFSv2 has in the September forecast.

[CaliforniaResident]

Looks like this thing could possibly fizzle out like 2012 and if it doesn't it will be a weak non-event.
Any hope of the late June Kelvin Wave actually coming through?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkrdXGLkQtg

[LarryWx]

Looks like this thing could possibly fizzle out like 2012 and if it doesn't it will be a weak non-event.
Any hope of the late June Kelvin Wave actually coming through?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkrdXGLkQtg

I think that the chance of this fizzling to a non-official El Nino are very slim. The subsurface is too warm.
However, the chances of this being a super strong Nino like 1982-3 and 1997-8 have clearly dropped. If this ends up being only a weak or low end moderate, the chances of a cold winter in the SE US go up quite a bit from my standpoint.

[NDG]

IMO, with the continuing positive SOI chances of a strong El Nino are almost non-existing at this point, even the warm bias Euro has been trending towards a weak to moderate El Nino.

SOI values for 15 Jun 2014


Average for last 30 days
10.2

Average for last 90 days
3.4

Daily contribution to SOI calculation
10.8

[TheStormExpert]

Either way it doesn't matter, El Niño conditions are already present IMO and are doing their job in both the E. Pacific and Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

JB's new message.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 6h

Mid June and SOI still not coupling. NCEP models much weaker now on enso event only bring it to 1.0 in enso 3.4

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like this thing could possibly fizzle out like 2012 and if it doesn't it will be a weak non-event.
Any hope of the late June Kelvin Wave actually coming through?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkrdXGLkQtg

Yes, and MJO will get here eventually.

[Ntxw]

ENSO has caught the tropical season bug, monthly cancels . Every month there's several posts of them, yet the tropical Pacific is still well above normal. Update is tomorrow, I'm not expecting many changes to it +/- 0.1C difference most likely.

SOI has been so crazy, very positive, very negative, then very positive, and falling again within the first two weeks alone. That's not something you want to see for a sign of stability.

[CaliforniaResident]

:uarrow: Either way it doesn't matter, El Niño conditions are already present IMO and are doing their job in both the E. Pacific and Atlantic.

Conditions might be present now but not enough to self sustain through the fall and winter. If we don't get another WWB, The warm pool will fizzle out rather than continue to warm. Most likely scenario: we get a weak Nino
Unlikely but possible: The warm pool disappears entirely and we end up with No Nino or even La Nina
Equally unlikely but still possible: We get a strong WWB later in summer putting us in strong Nino mode.

Right now, I'm betting on a very weak Nino which could mean continuing drought conditions for our already parched, semi-arid climate.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Either way it doesn't matter, El Niño conditions are already present IMO and are doing their job in both the E. Pacific and Atlantic.

Conditions might be present now but not enough to self sustain through the fall and winter. If we don't get another WWB, The warm pool will fizzle out rather than continue to warm. Most likely scenario: we get a weak Nino
Unlikely but possible: The warm pool disappears entirely and we end up with No Nino or even La Nina
Equally unlikely but still possible: We get a strong WWB later in summer putting us in strong Nino mode.

Right now, I'm betting on a very weak Nino which could mean continuing drought conditions for our already parched, semi-arid climate.

You realize 2004-05 was a weak El Nino and CA got some rains that winter, right?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I would still go with moderate to strong. First up, all this warming has occurred despite not having a wet MJO signal over the equatorial Pacific. Next up is that the subsurface is STILL very, very warm, and is weakening slower than expected.

[Ntxw]

This week's anomalies indices (centered last Wednesday) shows 3.4 down another 0.1 to +0.4C. 1+2 warmed back up to +1.6C, 3 held steady at +0.8C, and 4 cooled to 0.6C. Should be official at the update. The region with the most cooling the past two weeks has been to the western Nino basins.

Previous
Nino 1+2: 1.4
Nino 3: 0.8
Nino 3.4: 0.5
Nino 4: 0.8

Current
Nino 1+2: 1.6
Nino 3: 0.8
Nino 3.4: 0.4
Nino 4: 0.6

[euro6208]

So since this el nino will not become strong or super, the chances of it occuring before 2017 increases. If it had occured this year, the chances of it occuring is very slim as usually it occurs only once a decade (last one occured 17 years ago).

Right now, the WPAC is currently warmer than nino 3.4 (I didn't include 1.2 since it is forecast to weaken), and warmer than most of the pacific, where models forecast a modoki event. This area of very warm SST and anomalies in the WPAC has spread from the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and to the International Dateline and might link up to the modoki event in the central pacific...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Another MJO is coming. If a WWB comes we may have some equatorial warming.

[cycloneye]

Text of the CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C.It says low level winds are easterly in most of Pacific.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

Another MJO is coming. If a WWB comes we may have some equatorial warming.

According to the latest CFSv2 it might be around August before Nino 3.4 gets back up to above +.5 deg C.