2014 EPAC Season

[stormcruisin]

This could appear on the TWO soon. It looks as though it's organising.

Yeah should be the next named (TS) by thursday.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC shows the system or the one behind this developing. GFS still does not show this though.

[cycloneye]

The final ACE number after Cristina are 31.5175,an incredible fast pace for being mid June.

[hurricanes1234]

This is the only above average basin in the northern hemisphere. All others are either below average (best example is WPAC) or average (normal Atlantic to date is 0, and the current ACE there is 0).

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Cristina, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico.

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system during the next several days at it moves
westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[hurricaneCW]

The final ACE number after Cristina are 31.5175,an incredible fast pace for being mid June.

How crazy is it that those ACE numbers for the EPAC are already higher than the entire 2013 season's ACE for the Atlantic.

[hurricanes1234]

As soon as one goes, another comes. That's basically how it has been since the season started. Unbelievable season thus far.

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC shows two system (this one and the one behind it)



12z CMC shows just this system developing, with the one behind it taking its sweet time.



NOGAPS develops this quickly



ECMWF develops this but keeps it close to the coast.



CFs still shows epic MJO pulse in early July

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina, located a few hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula of
Mexico.

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual
development of this system during the next several days at it moves
westward and then west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave several
hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec have
decreased this evening. However, environmental conditions remain
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance during the
next several days as it moves westward and then west-northwestward
at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS still does not show this. When was the last time something in the EPAC formed w/o GFS support?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves westward or west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Hurricane_Luis]

The GFS is still asleep, showing nothing. Other models hinting at something but are not making it strengthen.

[NDG]

EPAC highlighted area by the NHC looks to be attached to the ITCZ with a broad circulation, it is in a low latitude and with building ridging west of Baja C. in may stay in that low latitude which might the reason that the GFS does not do much with it.

[cycloneye]

Looks like 12z ECMWF has dropped for the most part the system it was showing more stronger in past runs.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/chart ... meter=Wind 850 and mslp

[hurricanes1234]

Maybe the supposed one behind it will develop? I don't see much development from this either as yet.

[Yellow Evan]

Be patient. Conditions looks quite good. I'm not sold for sure on it, but it has its chance.

[Steve820]

It still looks disorganized, but I do think we might see a Douglas out of this by the end of the week.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A weak trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible later this week while it moves westward or west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[hurricanes1234]

Went down to near 0% in 2 days.
Seems reasonable given the fact that it hasn't begun to organise as yet, and most invests cannot go from low to high in one day. There are, however, some exceptions.