ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[LarryWx]

Although it is only a very general guideline and not very reliable, I have found based on past analyses that there is often ~2-3 week lag between the SOI and region 3.4 SST anomalies. We now may be seeing the start of the temporary cooling effect from the earlier month solid positive SOI's.

[cycloneye]

May data of PDO is up to +1.80

The April data was at +1.13 so is a big increase to the warm side.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[cycloneye]

It looks like the MJO will not move eastward for now.Here is the latest.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

[cycloneye]

BoM update of 6/17/14

No changes about what to expect in the next couple of weeks.

Pacific Ocean remains primed for an El Niño in 2014

Issued on Tuesday 17 June 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months has primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, in the absence of the necessary atmospheric response, warming has levelled off in recent weeks. Positive Southern Oscillation Index values and large areas of warm water in the western Pacific and off northwestern Australia are also counter to typical El Niño development.

Despite recent observations and some easing in the model outlooks, climate models surveyed by the Bureau still indicate El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014.

For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-average daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter and spring. Positive IOD events often coincide with El Niño and are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[weatherwindow]

Good morning, Luis....the sense Im getting from your posts this morning that a Modoki event is becoming more likely...Is there any substance to that thought?
Grtz from KW, Rich

[cycloneye]

Good morning, Luis....the sense Im getting from your posts this morning that a Modoki event is becoming more likely...Is there any substance to that thought?
Grtz from KW, Rich

Hi Rich. Frankly is still early to have a conclusive opinion about if El Nino would be Traditional or Modoki because there are still mixed signals that are making things more complicated at this time to conclude one way or another.We have a warming PDO that is good for warm ENSO but then MJO has not been cooperating to warm things more rapidly,SOI has been way positive at the La Nina threshold over +8,and a very warm Western Pacific that is not what is needed to get El Nino. As you can see I only mentioned those and you can see what I mean when I say mixed signals.Let's see what occurs in the next few weeks to see if things are more clear and we can know first if El Nino comes,then how strong and what kind. (Traditional or Modoki)

[Ntxw]

To get a modoki you need 3.4 and 4 to warm up not cool down to levels higher than 3 and 1+2. You also need westerly winds near the dateline and easterly trades off SA.

[cycloneye]

CFSv2 has been changing dramaticly in the past few weeks as it no longer forecasts a moderate El Nino as it had in March thru April.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This is why I love the weather, sometimes in spite of all our advanced technology you just never known what it'll do for sure. Shall be interesting to see how things develop the next couple of months. Judging by the above graphics ENSO could even go neutral by late summer/early fall.

[Kingarabian]

That PDO is pretty amazing.

[Ntxw]

That PDO is pretty amazing.

It is the highest PDO reading(unless it marks the end long or short term) for a cold PDO period. Only 1957 even comes close and that lasted for about two years, the rest when they go that high are either transitioning to warm PDO or within it.

Latest SST anomalies map from the proclaimed fading El Nino by some

[Hammy]

given the continuing downward trend in the modeling, the seeming lack of atmospheric response as well as cold pools showing up along the equator, I'm starting to wonder if the El Nino predictions were as overblown as last hurricane season's.

[CaliforniaResident]

The PDO is still a glimmer of hope that this strong or at least moderate El Nino does materialize. Can the El Nino sustain itself without any more WWBs at this point?

[cycloneye]

Maybe they fixed the bouys? The latest TAO information shows a more complete data than before. Anyway it shows very warm anomalies at Nino 1+2 and a small part of Nino 3 but less warm on most of 3 and 3.4. If you look at the arrows of the winds,there are no westerlies pushing the very warm Western Pacific waters for now.

[Ntxw]

I dont believe they did. The same thing happened a few weeks ago, it jumped from 1C area to cold from one day to the next. Happened again this week. Any 0.5c jump from one day to the next should be questioned. That is realistically not possible and its been the same region buoy(s) that have been doing this.

[NDG]

Yeap, I agree with Ntxw, now that image looks too cool for Nino 3.4

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive warming over Niño 1+2, 3 & 3.4. Here are the daily anomalies:

1+2: +1.7°C
3: +0.8°C
3.4: +0.5°C
4: +0.7°C

Looks like the equatorial warming is spreading eastward.

[NDG]

Impressive warming over Niño 1+2, 3 & 3.4. Here are the daily anomalies:

1+2: +1.7°C
3: +0.8°C
3.4: +0.5°C
4: +0.7°C

Looks like the equatorial warming is spreading eastward.

Where do you get your daily values from?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive warming over Niño 1+2, 3 & 3.4. Here are the daily anomalies:

1+2: +1.7°C
3: +0.8°C
3.4: +0.5°C
4: +0.7°C

Looks like the equatorial warming is spreading eastward.

Where do you get your daily values from?

Rounded off estimates of those from Tropical Tidbits.

And, wait, Oh boy... Niño 3.4 warmed to +0.6ºC and Niño 3 warmed to +0.9ºC!! Impressive warming over the east central equatorial Pacific in the past 3 days.

[Ntxw]

I'm a little suspicious of the recent quick rise, as it seems to have happened fast from the satellites. But it's not just CDAS, OISST, and RTG have it too. It unfortunately we don't have proper buoys to verify.