2014 EPAC Season

[stormcruisin]

MeteoEarth model spins up something weak close to the coast by Saturday.

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with a weak
trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico. However, some slow development of this system
is possible later this week while it moves westward or west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[stormcruisin]

Most models going for a development GFS is the out-liner with nothing. Millibars on these runs suggest possible hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Most models going for a development GFS is the out-liner with nothing. Millibars on these runs suggest possible hurricane.

Good to see UKMET is on board with this. Does the ECNWF still have it?

[stormcruisin]

Not as aggressive but yeah.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171130
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Although development is not anticipated during the
next couple of days, some gradual development of this system is
possible later this week while it moves westward or west-
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[hurricanes1234]

3:00 PM PDT?

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave are located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.
Although development is not anticipated during the next couple of
days, gradual development of this system is possible later this
week or this weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[hurricanes1234]

Fixed.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014

Corrected for time of issuance

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave are located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.
Although development is not anticipated during the next couple of
days, gradual development of this system is possible later this
week or this weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[stormcruisin]

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172323
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is
located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Although
development is not anticipated during the next couple of days,
gradual development of this system is possible later this week or
this weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Even if the above busts, I think activity should pick up by the weekend. GFS is starting to hints some stuff as well, but not as aggressive as
I would like.

[hurricanes1234]

Considering this has not developed the slightest bit since it showed up on the TWO, and it doesn't seem to be getting any better right now, I would personally remove it from the TWO for now, if it were up to me. However, that's just my opinion. I also wouldn't rule out this busting as well.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

GFS developing a tropical cyclone in the central pacific then crosses it over to the WPAC...

[NDG]

Glad to see that they finally dropped chances of development down to 20% for the next 5 days. Vorticity remains elongated attached to the monsoonal trough with very little convergence and UL divergence.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, associated with a
tropical wave, are located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico. Although development is not anticipated during
the next couple of days, some development of this system is still
possible by later this weekend while it moves west-northwestward at
5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

I think there is nothing that will develop from this.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A few showers, associated with a tropical wave, are located several
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated during the next couple of days, but
some development of this system is still possible by later this
weekend while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[hurricanes1234]

I think there is nothing that will develop from this.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 18 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A few showers, associated with a tropical wave, are located several
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated during the next couple of days, but
some development of this system is still possible by later this
weekend while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

It's funny the way you put it. I agree too that this area seems hopeless, as it has negligible or no model support, percent chances have decreased since its appearance on the TWO, and it hasn't gotten any better since that time (in fact it has had an overall downward trend).

Not official.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest TWO dropped this.

[hurricanes1234]

Latest TWO dropped this.

I agree 100% with that decision. It is virtually unrecognizable now amidst the heavy convection to the west.

[Yellow Evan]

Meh, oh well. No need to panic though. CFS and the Euro still show MJO coming around in early July.

[stormcruisin]

Thinking here it just needs to move more pole-ward of the ITZ and it will start to organize.