Interesting Feature Off the East Coast of Florida

[gatorcane]

Interesting feature over the Gulf stream off of the East Coast of Florida looking at the SAT imagery loops this morning...any idea what this is?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-vis-loop.html

[NDG]

I was just looking at this a few minutes ago, it appears to be a vorticity just in the mid levels.

Edit: Nothing reflected at the surface, nothing but easterly winds across the FL P with very high surface pressures.

[tropicwatch]

[Nimbus]

I saw that area this morning before the tops got blown off.
Probably too much shear for it to persist but there is vorticity.

[tropicwatch]

I saw that area this morning before the tops got blown off.
Probably too much shear for it to persist but there is vorticity.

Actually the shear isn't too bad.

[Nimbus]

Its kind of rolling south with convection lifting around the periphery. Wouldn't take much to blow it apart though. If we get a deeper burst of convection maybe they will make it an invest?

[AJC3]

Remnant mesoscale convective vortex from the big blowup of storms over the Gulf Stream early this morning. Not a surface feature.

This blowup was mentioned in a couple Facebook posts from this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWea ... 7254179964

https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWea ... 5250836831

Interestingly, there is some sort of reflection in the streamline/vort fields down through 925MB. However the winds at both the east end C-MAN (SPGF1) on GBI and the neighboring METAR site at Freeport (MYGF) have remained ENE as the southern part of the vortex seen in visible imagery continues to sag south over GBI.

[gatorcane]

Thanks all for the detailed comments and feedback.

Looks like it is rapidly dissipating.

[Nimbus]

Just a tiny bit of rotation coming off the west coast of Florida after crossing the everglades.

[JonathanBelles]

The only thing it is doing for us in Florida is dragging in some dry air aloft from the NE, limiting rain chances by 10-20% across the peninsula compared to normal.

[crownweather]

HRRR model simulated radar imagery is showing some interesting things as it shows convection trying to "wrap around" the mid and upper level low. Wondering if the very short range models may be trying to show something. Shear isn't all that bad (15-20 knots) either.



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[AJC3]

HRRR model simulated radar imagery is showing some interesting things as it shows convection trying to "wrap around" the mid and upper level low. Wondering if the very short range models may be trying to show something. Shear isn't all that bad (15-20 knots) either.

All the models I've looked at this morning have either a very weak closed surface/H85 low (09Z/12Z WRF/HRRR/NAM and *almost* the 06Z GFS) or an inverted surface trough (00Z ECM/UKM) drifting NW into the Florida peninsula over the next few days. It's pretty much colocated with a weakness in the mid to upper levels as well. This should help boost our rain chances through the end of the week.

[NDG]

Yeap, vorticity remains mostly in the mid levels, very weak at H85 near Andros Island. High pressure pressures remains in control but as mentioned this will bring an increased thunderstorm activity for the Peninsula over the next few days.
BTW, I wonder if some of that Saharan Dust clearly seen on vis satellite over the Caribbean is going to make it into south FL.

[northjaxpro]

Echoing what AJC3 was referring to on this page earlier, there is indeed an inverted surface trough GFS is currently progging to affect South Florida as it moves northwest the next couple of days. The 12Z GFS 850 vorticity out 54 hours shows decent energy effecting the Space Coast region on Friday.

High surface pressures are prevalent across this area and I don't think this will develop into anything, although at the current time shear levels are only in the 10-20 kt range in the area around the Bahamas. It is worth keeping an eye on the next couple of days as this is an area that can spring a tropical system as climatology suggests during the month of June. It will definitely enhance rain chances in the southern peninsula the next couple of days as this feauture drifts slowly northwest.

[gatorcane]

latest save visible loop of the area, some turning evident:

[Sanibel]

Thundering around here all afternoon but probably just shear related.

[TheStormExpert]

If anything does occur this season it's best shot at trying to become something interesting will be off the SE coast since this is the only region where shear isn't too bad, of course on the other hand vertical instability is below average.
East Coast Vertical Shear:

East Coast Vertical instability:

[Nimbus]

Convection off the Cape this morning, there have been several interesting eddys that blew up convection then threw outflow boundaries and dissipated.

[gatorcane]

Saved IR loop showing convection on the increase and some spin:

[northjaxpro]

Another thing of note is that the inverted trough/mid-upper Low has been moving N-NW/ N over the past 12 hours or so, parallel to the FL East Coast. It seems that the main moisture and convection will remain off shore for the time being.