12Z GFS...and a Landfall Guide

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:07 am

It's only through 54 hours as I write this but the solution looks almost identical to the 6Z so far...so I'll write this as if everything is more or less the same.

Biggest key to this model guidance is that the GFS wants to leave a hole in the mean layer ridge where that squeezed ULL is sitting off the NC coast.

That feature will make the difference between a SC track and a NC or further east track.

So...for everyone wanting this storm to hit them...

If you live in FL...you've got a 99 in 100 chance of being dissapointed. The odds are about the same as flopping a royal flush in texas holdem. It could happen...but it's not likely.

If you are in GA...you need this thing to get the heck out of the way or fill right now.

SC people I disagree with have a little more time but the ULL needs to get out of the way and the ridge needs to stay stornger for longer...and the midwest trough dropping in needs to be very sharp and dig south and not southeast.

NC to NY...you want everything to evolve just as modeled in the GFS/UKMET/TPC tracks and you'll get your storm...or at least you'll get a close call.

MW

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:21 am

MW great words there to calm many people.

Aquawind · #3 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:24 am

Well Said MW!

#4 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:31 am

Well done Mike -- hope you're right for the sake of Floridians :o

ameriwx2003 · #5 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:34 am

12 Z GFS seems faster and looks like an old storm track:):)

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

12 Z GFS link:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Lindaloo · #6 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:23 pm

Has New York ever experienced a cane?

12Z GFS...and a Landfall Guide

12Z GFS...and a Landfall Guide

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