ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Insane warming, as of the moment. Niño 1+2 cooled a tiny bit, Niño 4 warmed a tiny bit while Niño 3.4 & 3 warm significantly.

Niño 4: +0.73
Niño 3.4: +0.75
Niño 3: +1.01
Niño 1+2: +1.68

[Ntxw]

Insane warming, as of the moment. Niño 1+2 cooled a tiny bit, Niño 4 warmed a tiny bit while Niño 3.4 & 3 warm significantly.

Niño 4: +0.73
Niño 3.4: +0.75
Niño 3: +1.02
Niño 1+2: +1.67

I will be interested to see Monday's update. The buoys are going one way, satellite is going the opposite way (though I am more certain buoys is likely an error due to it's history of doing this). One is right and the other is wrong! Should we take the middle ground?

[Ntxw]

Second week of June was dominated by stronger anomalous easterlies (blues) resulting in the recent cooling. Does look like that period has ended and we are heading back towards westerlies (yellow and orange) for the dateline moving eastward, central Pacific.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't get why CFSv2 is expecting the warm subsurface pool to shrink A LOT by July, in fact, their bullish forecasts previously have shown cooler than what is happening, and that the 5C anomalies have remained in place. They also predict a big cooling, as they averaged members, one outlier goes through a moderate La Niña, and making the El Niño forecast weaker.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest graphic shows this

Niño 1+2: +1.59°
Niño 3: +1.17°
Niño 3.4: +0.87°
Niño 4: +0.76°

[asd123]

Latest graphic shows this

Niño 1+2: +1.59°
Niño 3: +1.17°
Niño 3.4: +0.87°
Niño 4: +0.76°

Super El Nino Cancel Cancel

Now to be serious we must all wait a couple of days to assess what exactly is going on with an apparent massive warming. Is it the satellites or is it something short lived? Let's just wait a few days to establish a pattern. Pro Mets: What do you think is going on with the apparent massive warming?

[asd123]

Looks like NOAA has been doing some updating to the RTG SST maps. Remember to look at the scale, the colors may be a little more dramatic than before (darker) but it's much better than the previous product which you had to do more guessing with some blended colors.





Aside we should get a PDO reading here in within the next 2 weeks for May, should come out as another positive value for the fifth consecutive month. June looks to be locked in for the 6th but that's for next month.

Yeah I definitely like the new maps, much easier to track ssta. One problem though, I think NOAA should add more intervals between the 4 and 8. The scale goes by .25's and then .5's and then jumps from 4 to 8. It would be useful to have more intervals between 4 and 8, perhaps after 4 going by intervals of 1.

[LarryWx]

Folks,
This sudden warming showing up on OISST based maps and not on the TAO buoys is reminding me of the false warming that was on OISST based maps back in Nov. of 2012 and not on TAO! Back then, Ntxw and myself were intensely discussing this. OISST fooled me as I said this: "El Nino is NOT even close to being dead now!" in here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2726

Based on OISST, I had guessed that 3.4 would warm from +0.4 to the +0.8 to +1.0 range in that NOAA weekly update. However, it turned out that NOAA warmed it only to +0.5. Even Ntxw had said this about the only weak warming on 11/19/12 here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2730

"If that is the case, there is something very wrong. There is no charts or satellite maps that depict anything less than 0.7, heck even less than 0.9 seems weird. We should look back at the other weeks that showed warming yet didn't happen with the CPC, very fishy."

A person at NOAA told me this on the phone per this post:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2734

"She said that there was "a bug in the data". The data has been rerun. So, they clearly think that OISST was erroneous."

In other words, NOAA considered the OISST based warming to be false and, instead, went with the cooler buoys.


Subsequent to this, the OISST maps cooled all the way back down as fast as they had warmed and suggested that they were tainted with false data somehow. As we know, no Nino ever materialized that fall/winter and in contrast, it continued cooling all the way to neutral negative by December.

The point of this post is to suggest the supposed intense warming be taken with a grain at least until NOAA releases its next couple of weeklies. I'm not going to get fooled a second time.

[Kingarabian]

Folks,
This sudden warming showing up on OISST based maps and not on the TAO buoys is reminding me of the false warming that was on OISST based maps back in Nov. of 2012 and not on TAO! Back then, Ntxw and myself were intensely discussing this. OISST fooled me as I said this: "El Nino is NOT even close to being dead now!" in here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2726

Based on OISST, I had guessed that 3.4 would warm from +0.4 to the +0.8 to +1.0 range in that NOAA weekly update. However, it turned out that NOAA warmed it only to +0.5. Even Ntxw had said this about the only weak warming on 11/19/12 here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2730

"If that is the case, there is something very wrong. There is no charts or satellite maps that depict anything less than 0.7, heck even less than 0.9 seems weird. We should look back at the other weeks that showed warming yet didn't happen with the CPC, very fishy."

A person at NOAA told me this on the phone per this post:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=2734

"She said that there was "a bug in the data". The data has been rerun. So, they clearly think that OISST was erroneous."

In other words, NOAA considered the OISST based warming to be false and, instead, went with the cooler buoys.


Subsequent to this, the OISST maps cooled all the way back down as fast as they had warmed and suggested that they were tainted with false data somehow. As we know, no Nino ever materialized that fall/winter and in contrast, it continued cooling all the way to neutral negative by December.

The point of this post is to suggest the supposed intense warming be taken with a grain at least until NOAA releases its next couple of weeklies. I'm not going to get fooled a second time.

I recall that scenario as if it were yesterday. Shame that 2 years later, this bug still exists.

[Ntxw]

The point of this post is to suggest the supposed intense warming be taken with a grain at least until NOAA releases its next couple of weeklies. I'm not going to get fooled a second time.

This is a very good reminder, partially why in a previous post I've been hesitant to fully comply since the change was so drastic. I remember that time well. Unfortunately we don't have the buoys like we did then (they have deteriorated, and even recently have falsely showed cold anomalies a few weeks ago). We'll just have to wait for the CPC updates to know what is really going on.

I would suggest using NCEP's RTG product as it incorporates a myriad of data collection and probably less prone to errors from a singular source. It's been much more steady.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_low_res/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So maybe the graphic might be at +0.6 officially? I knew it was a glitch, as it is very unlikely that the warming would be that very rapid.

[South Texas Storms]

CFSv2 is indicating westerly winds in the Nino regions during the next 2 weeks.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[CaliforniaResident]

Here's one just for fun:

What do you think are the chances in terms of percentages for each of the following for the 2014-2015 season based on the conditions as of June 20, 2014?

1) A Super record El Nino on par with 1997-1998 or stronger
2) A strong El Nino
3) A Moderate El Nino
4) A Weak El Nino
5) Neutral Conditions
6) La Nina

My personal guess
1) around 1 percent
2) around 10 percent
3) around 40 percent
4) around 30 percent
5) around 15 percent
6) around 4 percent

I invite others to make similar guesses...

[Steve820]

Here's one just for fun:

What do you think are the chances in terms of percentages for each of the following for the 2014-2015 season based on the conditions as of June 20, 2014?

1) A Super record El Nino on par with 1997-1998 or stronger
2) A strong El Nino
3) A Moderate El Nino
4) A Weak El Nino
5) Neutral Conditions
6) La Nina

My personal guess
1) around 1 percent
2) around 10 percent
3) around 40 percent
4) around 30 percent
5) around 15 percent
6) around 4 percent

I invite others to make similar guesses...

My guesses:
1) 1 percent
2) 12 percent
3) 40 percent
4) 27 percent
5) 15 percent
6) 5 percent

I'm thinking we'll most likely see a weak to moderate El Nino this year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Here's one just for fun:

What do you think are the chances in terms of percentages for each of the following for the 2014-2015 season based on the conditions as of June 20, 2014?

1) A Super record El Nino on par with 1997-1998 or stronger
2) A strong El Nino
3) A Moderate El Nino
4) A Weak El Nino
5) Neutral Conditions
6) La Nina

My personal guess
1) around 1 percent
2) around 10 percent
3) around 40 percent
4) around 30 percent
5) around 15 percent
6) around 4 percent

I invite others to make similar guesses...

1) 5%
2) 25%
3) 45%
4) 20%
5) 5%
6) Definitely zero

I said zero for the bust because the subsurface is too warm, the PDO is very positive, the atmosphere is starting to cooperate and coincide with the Pacific ENSO warming, and that the MEI is very positive.

[AJC3]

CFSv2 is indicating westerly winds in the Nino regions during the next 2 weeks.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Just to be clear for those that are likely to misinterpret that map, what are being displayed are not wind barbs. They are vector anomalies. If one assumes an climatological mean wind out of the east at roughly 15kt (8 m/s) in the equatorial EPAC, then only westerly wind anomalies with a magnitude above that value would be true westerly winds. Assuming my climo approximation is close (anyone?), this means the only area on that map within the ENSO regions that would have any westerly winds is shaded in medium red (6-10 m/s) from around 160E to 170W between the equator and 10N, and may be smaller in area than that. The remainder of that area with positive westerly anomalies would simply have weaker easterlies than normal.

[LarryWx]

According to the link below, the current calendar week's averaged 3.4 SST anom., which will be released Monday by NOAA, is +0.6:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Let's see if NOAA raises it from last week's +0.4 to +0.6. That wouldn't be surprising as that isn't that much of a rise. More importantly, let's see what happens in the subsequent week and how this graph evolves over the next week or so. After such a steep rise, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some drop back pretty quickly. Regardless, I'd take this graph with a grain, partially because dailies are volatile/what happened in 2012 suggested a false warming, and put more emphasis on what NOAA does. The number to be released a week from Monday will be more interesting.

[Alyono]

west winds in the CPAC could created favorable low level winds for TC formation, couldn't they?

[Yellow Evan]

west winds in the CPAC could created favorable low level winds for TC formation, couldn't they?

GFs has been hinting a possible TC there, yes.

[Dean_175]

This looks much weaker than it did in early April. I remember when some people were expecting a "super" el nino to develop. But now, sea height anomalies have diminished to below 2009 levels-and decreasing still, SOI remains consistently positive, and the warming is now well behind 1997-and are now only slightly ahead of 2009. Subsurface temperature anomalies have also diminished considerably. In addition, the past 30 day average wind anomalies have been easterly over the central equatorial Pacific. My opinion is that this will develop but it will between somewhere between 2006 and 2009 in strength-probably with around 1.2 degrees C as the peak nino3.4 anomaly. -but that is just my opinion.

Does anyone have any thoughts on what caused this lessening? Could it be the fact that SST anomalies have been fairly negative in the South Pacific immediately below the equator all year? Therefore making it hard for SOI to become negative and for strong westerly wind anomalies to develop?

Here are the Sea level height anomalies for April 2014 and for the last 30 days (respectively). Notice the decrease in SSH anomalies. Similarly,the depth of the 20 degree C thermocline in the east and central equatorial Pacific has responded in a similar way.








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