ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Dean_175]

Here's one just for fun:

What do you think are the chances in terms of percentages for each of the following for the 2014-2015 season based on the conditions as of June 20, 2014?

1) A Super record El Nino on par with 1997-1998 or stronger
2) A strong El Nino
3) A Moderate El Nino
4) A Weak El Nino
5) Neutral Conditions
6) La Nina

My personal guess
1) around 1 percent
2) around 10 percent
3) around 40 percent
4) around 30 percent
5) around 15 percent
6) around 4 percent

I invite others to make similar guesses...

My personal guess:
1)Super El nino -around 4 percent
2)Strong el nino-around 9 percent
3)A moderate el nino - around 45 percent
4)A weak el nino- around 30 percent
5)Neutral conditions-around 10 percent
6) La nina- around 2 percent

I predict that this will peak as an el nino with the highest monthly nino3.4 anomaly being around 1.1-1.4 degree C.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The TAO graphic is showing that massive subsurface equatorial warm pool is actually even getting warmer, with 6-7ºC anomalies startig to pop up and spreading. We may see some surface equatorial warming this, or next week.

[Ntxw]

Tomorrow's update from the CPC will be interesting. We'll have an idea if the satellites have gone haywire or if it's something real. If we jump 0.3C or higher than we know it's real, if not then it's likely a mistake by OISST/CDAS.

Here's the latest RTG map (encompasses and array of data sources and not just satellites but ships and buoys as well)

[LarryWx]

Tomorrow's update from the CPC will be interesting. We'll have an idea if the satellites have gone haywire or if it's something real. If we jump 0.3C or higher than we know it's real, if not then it's likely a mistake by OISST/CDAS.

Ntxw,
Per the Levi Cowan satellite based graph, which is at the link below, this past calendar week (which will reported tomorrow) still averaged only ~+0.6 because Sun-Wed of last week averaged only ~+0.45C. So, I think that the jump could be as small as 0.2C and still mean the jump MAY be real. Regardless, I think we'll know a lot more a week from Monday than tomorrow.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[wxman57]

Is El Nino dying? Good article:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/23/t ... ino-dying/

Meanwhile, The Nino 3.4 region had about a 1/2C rise in the past few days. Looks quite strange:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino3.png

[Ntxw]

CPC weekly enso indices page are a little late this morning. Probably some adjustments or verification needed just guessing given the drastic nature, we sha'll see here in the next few hours.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 bumped up to 0.5C. The drastic changes (that does match satellite) is Nino 3 which went up to 1C and 1+2 rose considerably to 2.1. As larry mentioned, next week will be telling of 3.4 given the weekly average.

Anomalies map from the CPC update is actually not that far off from OISST

[LarryWx]

Nino 3.4 bumped up to 0.5C. The drastic changes (that does match satellite) is Nino 3 which went up to 1C and 1+2 rose considerably to 2.1. As larry mentioned, next week will be telling of 3.4 given the weekly average.

Anomalies map from the CPC update is actually not that far off from OISST

As Ntxw just stated, 3.4 was raised from +0.4 to +0.5. This is actually less than what the Levi Cowan graph (linked below) suggested for the calendar week 6/15-21, which was +0.6. However, it isn't that far off

Indeed, the more interesting weekly for 3.4 will be released a week from today. Will Levi's 3.4 stay around +1.0 for the rest of this calendar week? If so, will NOAA release ~+1.0 one week from today for 3.4? Will Levi's 3.4 drop back down a good bit? Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of "As the Nino Churns"!

Levi 3.4: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Ntxw]

It also tells us the buoys are not a reliable source at this time due to their nature of malfunctioning or not registering properly.

[LarryWx]

It also tells us the buoys are not a reliable source at this time due to their nature of malfunctioning or not registering properly.

Agreed because the buoys are suggesting something close to only +0.2 based on my eyeballing.

[Yellow Evan]

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/opinion/post/-/blog/21745961/el-nino-this-year-probably-not/

Media has hit El Nino cancel.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think that El Nino cancel story was posted on Feb 28th. Anyone have a problem with CPC site. Can't get on the page.

Looking for the latest SST's by them.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't know how accurate this site is but it shows SST's above 2 degrees in some spots.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... obal_1.png

[SouthFloridian92]

Personally speaking, I don't think El Nino will be cancelled per se but rather, it'll be one that's weak or moderate.

I had a feeling that something like this was going to happen, even back in April when everyone was calling for a Super El Nino. People have a habit of getting mixed up in all the excitement that they lose sight of other possibilities.

[Kingarabian]

Honestly, I think this is do or die time for this possible El-Nino in terms of how strong it can/will be.

Anyways, since the CPC verified the massive jumps that the OISST showed for Nino's 1+2 and 3, I think the odds for a traditional Eastern Pacific based El-Nino are a lot more likely rather than a modoki type.

Also, were the OISST values for 3.4 wrong for last week? I think it was Wednesday when that huge jump occured... Not sure if this akin to what we saw in December 2012.

[Ntxw]

Also, were the OISST values for 3.4 wrong for last week? I think it was Wednesday when that huge jump occured... Not sure if this akin to what we saw in December 2012.

I don't believe it was wrong. CPC takes a weekly average not just any particular day. The average looks about right as the jump didn't occur later in the week as Larry mentioned. We will find out more about 3.4 next week when the entire week spends on average (if they continue) as they are now for this week. 3 and 1.2 warmed first and reflected it. I wouldn't think OISST is right in one area and wrong the next and given we know the situation with the buoys, I'd side with OISST for now.

There is enough warmth for an El Nino if one wasn't already occurring right now, as the oceanic kelvin waves have already pushed that threshold. The question remains in the fall as when ENSO events tends to peak, what will this event do? Some blossom into full fledged Nino's/Ninas while some just disappear.

FYI lost in translation, the +2.1C reading at ENSO 1+2 is the highest reading in that region since 1997. Neither 2002, 2004, 2006, nor 2009 registered anything higher. 2006 came closest in July at +1.6C which was the only traditional Nino of the decade. The other 3 modoki's begins to fade at 1+2 around this time heading into July.

[Yellow Evan]

FYI lost in translation, the +2.1C reading at ENSO 1+2 is the highest reading in that region since 1997. Neither 2002, 2004, 2006, nor 2009 registered anything higher. 2006 came closest in July at +1.6C which was the only traditional Nino of the decade. The other 3 modoki's begins to fade at 1+2 around this time heading into July.

That is also on target and even slightly below Levi's site.

[Kingarabian]

Also, were the OISST values for 3.4 wrong for last week? I think it was Wednesday when that huge jump occured... Not sure if this akin to what we saw in December 2012.

I don't believe it was wrong. CPC takes a weekly average not just any particular day. The average looks about right as the jump didn't occur later in the week as Larry mentioned. We will find out more about 3.4 next week when the entire week spends on average (if they continue) as they are now for this week. 3 and 1.2 warmed first and reflected it. I wouldn't think OISST is right in one area and wrong the next and given we know the situation with the buoys, I'd side with OISST for now.

There is enough warmth for an El Nino if one wasn't already occurring right now, as the oceanic kelvin waves have already pushed that threshold. The question remains in the fall as when ENSO events tends to peak, what will this event do? Some blossom into full fledged Nino's/Ninas while some just disappear.

FYI lost in translation, the +2.1C reading at ENSO 1+2 is the highest reading in that region since 1997. Neither 2002, 2004, 2006, nor 2009 registered anything higher. 2006 came closest in July at +1.6C which was the only traditional Nino of the decade. The other 3 modoki's begins to fade at 1+2 around this time heading into July.

I see

It's still hard to fathom such a sharp uptick in warming in less than a days worth. Is it possible...? To go from +0.4 to +1.0? Maybe this warming has started before last week?

So I think if the OISST depictions are true (which so far have been after today's update), maybe this warming occured over the past couple of weeks rather than a single day and maybe it took the satellites some time to detect and display the warming? Especially since the buoys we've been paying attention more are wrong.

[Ntxw]

I see

It's still hard to fathom such a sharp uptick in warming in less than a days worth. Is it possible...? To go from +0.4 to +1.0? Maybe this warming has started before last week?

So I think if the OISST depictions are true (which so far have been after today's update), maybe this warming occured over the past couple of weeks rather than a single day and maybe it took the satellites some time to detect and display the warming? Especially since the buoys we've been paying attention more are wrong.

It's always questionable when you see such sharp jumps when looking at ENSO as it is typically a slow process. My guess is probably not that quickly, but a trend upwards. We'll see in a week for 3.4. OISST still has to maintain it and not simply dive back down. It seems this warming coincided with the weakening of the trade winds. Around the same time last week anomalous strong trade winds weakened dramatically, could this have played a role? Possibly. The dark blues began to fade mid week of last week. We're now going more towards weaker trades.

[Kingarabian]

SOI has been steadily falling. Wonder if this is the start of a tank.