2014 EPAC Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable
for some development of this system by the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg
NNNN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable
for some development of this system by the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg
NNNN
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Liking chances here. Very favorable environment not long from now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the multiple storms modeled verify. Good chance at least one hurricane will come of it. The shear I've been seeing for the western Gulf/Carib is going to be enhanced by whatever forms here in the EPAC, the gradient lower pressures in this region and higher pressures over there relative is causing it.
If I remember correctly Yellow Evan mentioned July being the first peak in the this basin, good start for that period.
If I remember correctly Yellow Evan mentioned July being the first peak in the this basin, good start for that period.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:Liking chances here. Very favorable environment not long from now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the multiple storms modeled verify. Good chance at least one hurricane will come of it. The shear I've been seeing for the western Gulf/Carib is going to be enhanced by whatever forms here in the EPAC, the gradient lower pressures in this region and higher pressures over there relative is causing it.
If I remember correctly Yellow Evan mentioned July being the first peak in the this basin, good start for that period.
It's around mid-July. I noted before several times that activity would likely pick up in late June/early July based on MJO, so so far I'm right it appears. Granted, I did not expect 2 Cat 4's to have formed prior to that time.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Formation
Peak. GFS keeps it offshore this run.
Landfall as a minimal hurricane. Would only be the 4th July landfallng hurricane and 2nd on Baja. They usually occur in early starting El Nino years though.
Elida forming
Elida and Fausto
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable
for this system to become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 25 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure is expected to form to the south of the
coast of Mexico in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable
for this system to become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while
it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Wow, that's unusual to have such a sharp difference between 2 day and 5 day forecasts (0%/60%).
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I've noticed that there is a lot of shear near the possible area of interest. Do you think this will affect its development?
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I've noticed that there is a lot of shear near the possible area of interest. Do you think this will affect its development?
Ill post later, but models are quite bullish with development, so I doubt it.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
12z CMC peaks Douglas as a strong TS/weak hurricane
Douglas and Elida
Now get ready for this: this is a 12z GFS doomsday scenario, our second since 2012 (last year one GFS run showed back to back Hawaii hurricanes)
Formation
Brings it almost onshore as a major into San Blas and Peutro Vallarta.
Massive. Could topple Puetro Vallarta's bay, which protects it from hurricanes.
Into GOC
Landfall
Elida
NOGAPS keeps it boring
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
The main thing to take from the global models is that they agree on TC formations (1-2) regardless of intensity in the next one thru two weeks in the basin so it will turn very busy.
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:I've noticed that there is a lot of shear near the possible area of interest. Do you think this will affect its development?
It'll probably develop an anti-cyclone.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Both GFS ensmeble and CFS show this, but much much further west
Looking ahead, CFS shows MJO returning in late July.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extends for
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and
Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within
this region of disturbed weather to the south of the coast of Mexico
in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable for this system
to become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extends for
several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico and
Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to form within
this region of disturbed weather to the south of the coast of Mexico
in a couple of days, and conditions appear favorable for this system
to become a tropical cyclone over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Well, here it is. We could very well see Douglas out of this (in my opinion it has a higher chance than 95E).
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Well, here it is. We could very well see Douglas out of this (in my opinion it has a higher chance than 95E).
95E is lone gone. This IMO has a very very good chance at becoming Douglas. I see no reason why it won't.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Wed Jun 25, 2014 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: 2014 EPAC Season
Peak for Douglas as a mid-level TS
Landfall
Enters GOC. Almost exactly like Manuel.
Enters Pacific
Hi Elida
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- Yellow Evan
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- Steve820
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This AOI's got some potential. Douglas should come from this later this week, around Friday-Saturday most likely. We might see something big come out of it, but since it will affect Mexico, we shouldn't root for it to become powerful. My predicted peak strength for future-Douglas is around 90-110 mph before landfall in Mexico.
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extends for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to
form in a couple of days within this region of disturbed weather
south of the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear favorable for
this system to become a tropical cyclone this weekend or early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
ABPZ20 KNHC 260500
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extends for several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico and Central America. An area of low pressure is expected to
form in a couple of days within this region of disturbed weather
south of the coast of Mexico, and conditions appear favorable for
this system to become a tropical cyclone this weekend or early next
week while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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