TheStormExpert wrote:Where did you find these graphics?
NCEP's reanalysis page. Lots of data, just plug in what you want.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/hour/
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TheStormExpert wrote:Where did you find these graphics?
Ntxw wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Where did you find these graphics?
NCEP's reanalysis page. Lots of data, just plug in what you want.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/hour/
NDG wrote:You guys are looking at the deep tropics too much where clearly conditions are horrible and look to stay that way most of the season, but if you look at the subtropics (north of the 20th latitude) conditions are better and better than last year, so I expect any tropical waves and or subtropical disturbances will have good conditions for development and strengthening, so I am not expecting a season as dead as last year.
NDG wrote:You guys are looking at the deep tropics too much where clearly conditions are horrible and look to stay that way most of the season, but if you look at the subtropics (north of the 20th latitude) conditions are better and better than last year, so I expect any tropical waves and or subtropical disturbances will have good conditions for development and strengthening, so I am not expecting a season as dead as last year.
CFLHurricane wrote:Yep last year was probably a once in a generation event. I just can't wait for this season to finally kick off!
Cyclenall wrote:NDG wrote:You guys are looking at the deep tropics too much where clearly conditions are horrible and look to stay that way most of the season, but if you look at the subtropics (north of the 20th latitude) conditions are better and better than last year, so I expect any tropical waves and or subtropical disturbances will have good conditions for development and strengthening, so I am not expecting a season as dead as last year.
We focus on the deep tropics because the subtropics are not interesting to most of us, I really actually get bored when those pop up. I don't agree that the conditions in the subtropics will be better than last year, and part of that is I think the dry air will crush development from a non-tropical source, and TW's will not be able to survive if they want to form in the sub-tropics. I also wouldn't use the phrase "good conditions" for the 2014 season anywhere .CFLHurricane wrote:Yep last year was probably a once in a generation event. I just can't wait for this season to finally kick off!
It was an OIAG event up til last year, but this Atlantic season will make it two. 95% of us think your going to be in for a huge disappointment if you "can't wait". You picked a really bad year to be eager! I post this a lot, but I can't stress enough how sucky this is going to turn out due to the current conditions, and forecast modeling. I have a hunch that when/if it does kick off, there won't be much to see like last year (and last year had some things going for it, this time none). Think of 1983 without the Alicia.
SFLcane wrote:Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/
Yellow Evan wrote:SFLcane wrote:Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/
Right now, if Levi's site is correct, we have ~1C anomalies. MJO is here now and according to the ENSO thread, Kelvin waves are coming.
Even if no El Nino forms, conditions are otherwise hostile for development in the MDR according to this thread.
SFLcane wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:SFLcane wrote:Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/
Right now, if Levi's site is correct, we have ~1C anomalies. MJO is here now and according to the ENSO thread, Kelvin waves are coming.
Even if no El Nino forms, conditions are otherwise hostile for development in the MDR according to this thread.
All basin is hostile in june. Nothing to look at out there in MDR till mid aug regardless. As NDG has suggested keep an eye for development close to home tw's that struggle to develope.
SFLcane wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:SFLcane wrote:Just cant see how some of these seasonal forecasts pan out based on El Niño's current status. As mark hurricanetrack.com mentions in his blog today not to long ago we were looking for a super El Niño. Nope.
Great read -> http://hurricanetrack.com/
Right now, if Levi's site is correct, we have ~1C anomalies. MJO is here now and according to the ENSO thread, Kelvin waves are coming.
Even if no El Nino forms, conditions are otherwise hostile for development in the MDR according to this thread.
All basin is hostile in june. Nothing to look at out there in MDR till mid aug regardless. As NDG has suggested keep an eye for development close to home tw's that struggle to develope.
Ntxw wrote:It is not just about ENSO. Last year, not brought up by many, I have little doubt many thought the season would be very active because the first thing that comes to mind when they heard "neutral year" early they assumed it would be without looking at all bases. I'm not saying it was predictable but the point is when you're pointing at El Nino or not it is one influence you consider into the whole picture not all of it.
Currently conditions are not good for MDR and Carib/Gulf. Ok it's early, so lets see if the broad scale factors like shear and lack of instability abate. Once it improves, if it does, it takes a few weeks for things to recover. The longer we delay that, the deeper into the season we get. The subtropics environment wise are pretty good, question will be can we seed it with systems to take advantage of it. Some years we do (like crazy 2004 when they come up from a fairly unfavorable region to higher latitudes and blossom), and some years they don't make it into the subtropics in large numbers.
Kingarabian wrote:I read somewhere, and I'm not eluding El-Nino or no El-Nino, but the rule of thumb is whenever the Eastern Pacific is active, the Atlantic is usually dead.
Models show the Eastern Pacific very active for the month of July, so....
Only exception was 2005... which was a weird season in general.
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gigabite wrote:
This is 2 for 4. This Season two tropical depressions have formed in the span of 4 days either side of the
New Moon, Hurricane Amanda, and Tropical Depression Four. The mechanism seems to be more than just
the effect of atmospheric tide. This outcome is repeats every season. The percentage is generally above
50, and can get as high as 80.
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