Off SE U.S coast (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Will we get in some form Arthur from this? Surely things are more favorable there than in the MDR/Caribbean/GOM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area could form off of the southeastern coast of
the United States by early next week. Some development of this
system is possible if it remains over water while it drifts
southward or southwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Hurricaneman]

The area that needs to monitor this one is the SE coast and Florida if model projections are close to correct

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[Nimbus]

There is even some rotation in the clouds.
That area has had high vorticity recently.

[cycloneye]

GFS ha a weak low at 18z.Let's see if the models pick it up in next runs.

[NDG]

The Euro is the one that has been persistent the most for a vorticity/low pressure forming off of the SE US coast from an MCS to come off the Carolinas later this week, very similar to today's 18z GFS run.
Here's today's 12z run. It shows a weak low forming then retrodrading westward towards FL but not doing much with it.

[northjaxpro]

This is a very similar set-up, not with the initial genesis, but in terms of motion if this develops according to EURO. Tropical Storm Beryl formed in this general area 2 years ago. It moved southwest and made landfall right over my area, but Beryl evolved from initially a subtropical Low which formed north of the Bahamas and moved north. It then stalled of the coast Wilmington NC, before moving back towardv the southwest and acquiring tropical characteristics

[gatorcane]

There is even some rotation in the clouds.
That area has had high vorticity recently.

I assume you are talking about some slight rotation over South / North Carolina area?

Interesting thing here is that the low hasn't even formed yet, and looking at SAT imagery this evening, I don't know what the models are seeing that will cause this low to form.

But the globals have been insistent on heights dropping off the SE U.S. coast for many days now.

Assuming this low forms, good example of how models can "see" things well in advance before an actual system even exists.

Saved image:

[beoumont]

Will we get in some form Arthur from this? Surely things are more favorable there than in the MDR/Caribbean/GOM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area could form off of the southeastern coast of
the United States by early next week. Some development of this
system is possible if it remains over water while it drifts
southward or southwestward.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Got to say this is the first time (In 50+ years) that I have seen a TWO that says what this one does. I guess, with the new 5 day format, a few more unique TWOs will be born as well. Neato!

[Steve820]

I hope we'll see an Arthur out of this, otherwise it'd be the first June since 2004 without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

I hope we'll see an Arthur out of this, otherwise it'd be the first June since 2004 without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

Not true, June 2009 was the last occurrence.

[TheStormExpert]

Will we get in some form Arthur from this? Surely things are more favorable there than in the MDR/Caribbean/GOM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area could form off of the southeastern coast of
the United States by early next week. Some development of this
system is possible if it remains over water while it drifts
southward or southwestward.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Got to say this is the first time (In 50+ years) that I have seen a TWO that says what this one does. I guess, with the new 5 day format, a few more unique TWOs will be born as well. Neato!

Weren't the NHC supposed to start issuing 5-day TWO graphics at the beginning of the season, or is it scheduled to start later in the season?

[JonathanBelles]

Weren't the NHC supposed to start issuing 5-day TWO graphics at the beginning season, or is it scheduled to start later in the season?

I believe this starts at the top of next month (July 1st).

[Steve820]

I hope we'll see an Arthur out of this, otherwise it'd be the first June since 2004 without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

Not true, June 2009 was the last occurrence.

Well, 2009 had a depression, but if this June doesn't have a named storm it will be the first time since 2004 that happened.

[cycloneye]

2 AM TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form off of the southeastern coast of
the United States by late this weekend or early next week. Some
development of this system is possible if it remains over water
while it drifts southward or southwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[NDG]

I hope we'll see an Arthur out of this, otherwise it'd be the first June since 2004 without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

Not true, June 2009 was the last occurrence.

Well, 2009 had a depression, but if this June doesn't have a named storm it will be the first time since 2004 that happened.

The first Depression in 2009 occurred during late May, June and July were very quiet that year.

[NDG]

This is the most aggressive I see the ECMWF with this potential system.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure could form off of the southeastern coast of
the United States by late this weekend or early next week. Some
development of this system is possible if it remains over water
while it drifts southward or southwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[northjaxpro]

As NDG pointed out above, the EURO remains quite aggresive with development of this potential tropical entity. At least for now, with shear being very persistent across the MDR and the Caribbean, the area off the SE U.S. coast is about the only area in the basin conducive for tropical cyclone development.

This just may be the year of the homegrown storms in 2014.

[Alyono]

I hope we'll see an Arthur out of this, otherwise it'd be the first June since 2004 without a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.

Not true, June 2009 was the last occurrence.

Well, 2009 had a depression, but if this June doesn't have a named storm it will be the first time since 2004 that happened.

the 2009 TD was in May

[WPBWeather]

As NDG pointed out above, the EURO remains quite aggresive with development of this potential tropical entity. At least for now, with shear being very persistent across the MDR and the Caribbean, the area off the SE U.S. coast is about the only area in the basin conducive for tropical cyclone development.

This just may be the year of the homegrown storms in 2014.

But isn't that just a picture of the sheer, and not a movie? Sheer can change from day to day--so persistence is not forever.