Off SE U.S coast (Is Invest 91L)

[SeGaBob]

Cycloneye are you going to update this title with the percentages? It may help to gather more attention to this thread. You don't have to if it doesn't feel necessary though.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye are you going to update this title with the percentages? It may help to gather more attention to this thread. You don't have to if it doesn't feel necessary though.

We meaning the S2K staff decided that is better to leave the title of threads alone and not add the percentages.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles are stronger at 12z run.

[NDG]

Already a sign of a surface low forming over southern S.C.

[Frank2]

I read the critical comments and just to get slightly off-topic, my earlier comment was about worrying about things that haven't happened yet, versus the "old" way of forecasting systems that were already on the map. Now, the half-mile VIS does show a circulation (perhaps mid level) over South Carolina and if that moves offshore, sure it might work down into something, and glad this new NHC practice was discussed at a recent hurricane conference, but was just commenting that we seem to live in a time when we worry too much about things that haven't even taken place yet...

In the 1980's (someone mentioned the 1970's) they would not have considered something this tiny even worth mentioning in the TWO, but today it gets national media attention, so perhaps it's due to improved forecasting but perhaps its also because we are in a time that we are saturated with too much information and that only stresses everyone even more than society is already stressed...

P.S. My comment about the NHC and their workload was uncalled for on my part and apologize for that (I shouldn't post when I'm grumpy and feeling under the weather) - they have always been a good organization and trustworthy too, but the world has changed so much in their lifespan and my lifespan that even organizations that never changed and always remained the same for many years are now caught up with the world's many changes, and sometimes that does hurt their performance or way of thinking, because they are trying to think the way the world today thinks, and that's not always a good thing...

Take care,

Frank2

[tropicwatch]

I think there is a good chance it will get over water some time this evening a little ahead of schedule.

[Nimbus]

I think there is a good chance it will get over water some time this evening a little ahead of schedule.

That area appears to be sinking south of east which would put it off Georgia before an invest gets started.

[SeGaBob]

Some thunderstorms from the low are currently approaching my area from the NW.

[northjaxpro]

The actual Low pressure area appears to be in the South Carolina Low Country region, midway between Hampton, SC and Beaufort SC according to surface obs. Looks to be moving south of due east and I agree with panamatropicwatch that this will move off the coast late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

[hurricanekid416]

Is the euro still predicting a storm running up the east coast

[Ntxw]

IMO it's got a few days to try. It will be a slow process though as these things takes their time to get stacked and going, if it does. It will then quickly be overtaken by a strong (for the time of year) trough and cold front that will sweep across the eastern US and as wxman57 mentioned will go frontal and zip on out.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak non-tropical area of low pressure currently located over
southern South Carolina is expected to move offshore of the
southeastern United States tonight or Saturday. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it lingers off the
southeastern coast of the United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[tropicwatch]

Would not be surprised if we get an invest number tonight or early tomorrow morning. Conditions appear to be pretty good for something to form.

[TheStormExpert]

Well we could be looking at one named storm for the month of June after all if all goes well this time (unlike 90L).

[gatorcane]

Low-level wind observations across South Carolina this evening suggest a low pressure area has formed. You can see the wind vectors are lining up in a counterclockwise orientation with the Low center over Southern South Carolina.

Here is a graphic from the NWS EDD (Enhanced Data Display), a product of the Charleston, WV Weather Ready Nation Pilot Project:

[Alyono]

I read the critical comments and just to get slightly off-topic, my earlier comment was about worrying about things that haven't happened yet, versus the "old" way of forecasting systems that were already on the map. Now, the half-mile VIS does show a circulation (perhaps mid level) over South Carolina and if that moves offshore, sure it might work down into something, and glad this new NHC practice was discussed at a recent hurricane conference, but was just commenting that we seem to live in a time when we worry too much about things that haven't even taken place yet...

In the 1980's (someone mentioned the 1970's) they would not have considered something this tiny even worth mentioning in the TWO, but today it gets national media attention, so perhaps it's due to improved forecasting but perhaps its also because we are in a time that we are saturated with too much information and that only stresses everyone even more than society is already stressed...

P.S. My comment about the NHC and their workload was uncalled for on my part and apologize for that (I shouldn't post when I'm grumpy and feeling under the weather) - they have always been a good organization and trustworthy too, but the world has changed so much in their lifespan and my lifespan that even organizations that never changed and always remained the same for many years are now caught up with the world's many changes, and sometimes that does hurt their performance or way of thinking, because they are trying to think the way the world today thinks, and that's not always a good thing...

Take care,

Frank2

Need to adapt with the times. The way things were done in the 1980s were to be blunt, not very good. Now, we can better assess development chances. Thus, even if a system is over land, it must be included if there is a chance of development

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think the chances of us getting development are somewhere around 50%. Surface pressures are somewhat high, but wind shear is lowering and sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient for us to see Arthur. Global models aren't overly enthusiastic, but they've been known to struggle with systems in high pressure environments, and with storms that are small in general. Alberto 2012 is a good analog storm, I think.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting potential feature...maybe Danielle 1992 as an analog as well?

[NDG]

I think the chances of us getting development are somewhere around 50%. Surface pressures are somewhat high, but wind shear is lowering and sea surface temperatures are more than sufficient for us to see Arthur. Global models aren't overly enthusiastic, but they've been known to struggle with systems in high pressure environments, and with storms that are small in general. Alberto 2012 is a good analog storm, I think.

Good point!

[TheStormExpert]

What about TS Beryl(2012)? Seems like a perfect analog to me?