Models pointing toward FL...

[Deenac813]

Eeryone needs to take a Chill Pill here. This is not GoPBI and We won't let it degrade into it.
Bottom line is, we're all here to watch and learn. It's hard to learn when we're yelling at each other.

WHOO HOO!! I totally agree with you & thanks!!

Deena

[mf_dolphin]

I can guarantee that if this starts to become like GoPBI then some people will get a chance to cool off. That's not a threat but a promise to the rest of the board! Anxiety will only get higher as Isabel approaches the East Coast so please keep that in mind when you're making your posts. Try to put yourself in the shoes of someone who percieves they may be in the path of Isabel and show each other some understanding

[Air Force Met]

MF - I'm started off trying to give some meteorological help because John said he did not see anything that could "yank" it...or turn it. I did not realize that meant he did not want to see it. I thought that meant he had not seen any data. So I tried to provide it. What happened after that was all the data...and you've been around and you've seen it...shows overwhelmingly that it will turn...has been thrown out.

SO...I mistook the "don't see anything" to mean that he didn't see it...not that he didn't want to see it. As a pro-met...I have the interests of all on this board at heart...not just John. I'm trying to offer a rational explaination for what is going to happen and why...not just what is not. This thread....models pointing towards Florida....well...not really. They all turn and all the models that are linked are really not the ones you would want to use for a Cat 4...right? I mean...do you really want to use the LBAR to forecast a 4? Or the BAMM or the BAMS

[Betrock]

I'm new to this forum, so forgive the intrusion.

I'm here to learn, to benefit from all informed opinions. I even enjoy the uninformed guesses! Many posters appear to be professional or semi-pro Mets. That's great. Some are dedicated amateurs. That's great too.

I've lived in Florida for 50 yrs. Hurricanes are a way of life. As a kid, living on a barrier island, sometimes the only indicator we had was that 'feeling' in your bones (probably something to do with the increase in the rythym of the surf) that something bad was coming. Now, we have amazing resources available to us. Many of you have great skill, experience and education. Certainly, you can do better than to argue viciously among yourselves. I don't think anyone seriously believes that we will pack up and evacuate based on an opinion given here. One would also assume that if one is reading this board, one is unlikely to ignore all caution.

Please don't turn this board into a toss up between a crap-shoot and a cat fight. I value the information provided, as do many others who lack the education or knowledge.

[fla_girl]

i concur mf_dolphin. anxieties are high right now. especially for those of us that have not been through a cat 4-5 storm. my highest so far was a 3 and quite frankly scared the s*it outta me. i think the calibar of the storm is causing anxieties and justly so.

i do however agree with with Josephine96. you can keep your models (espcially since they don't agree), because when you come to mother nature, she is going to do what she wants. right now that thing is headed west still. my 2 cents is it will cross cuba and go into the gulf of mexico since that wonderful "saving front" is moving farther and farther north and the bermuda high is coming down farther and farther.

i appreciate the fine job that all the meterologist do, but sometimes they are just wrong. especially here in florida. i know it's gonna rain when they tell me 20%, i know it will be a sunny day when they say 60%.

just my 2 cents and this is not gobi.com! you guys have an excellent board here. let's just respect everyone and learn

[Air Force Met]

Question Fla_Girl:

If we can keep our models...how are you going to know where this is going and when you need to leave?

[Derecho]

What is the reason for the difficuty with Isabel considering that they were spot-on for Fabian during his entire life cycle?

There isn't really any particular difficulty for Isabel.

So far the NHC track has basically been pretty accurate; Isabel hasn't done anything wildly unexpected trackwise.

And right now the models for Isabel aren't really all that more spread than the models for Fabian were prior to where Fabian turned; and there's certainly LESS spread than for MOST Cape Verde hurricanes in a similar position; Floyd, Bonnie, etc. had a LOT more spread.

[mf_dolphin]

With all due respect AirForceMet, the models are just a tool. Until the models come into and stay in better agreement then I'm not banking a whole lot on their long term solutions. Throwing them out is a little over the top but I've learned to believe my eyes as well.

For the record once again...I don't think that S Florida is at a great risk right now but I also don't think that Central or North Florida is out of the woods yet either...JMHO

[fla_girl]

the models are good for a general consus of what will happen with the storm. i'm not bashing the models, but just like everything else they can be wrong. i have faith in what the nhc is putting out. so far this year they have not been wrong. however when i look at the sat pics i get a different story.

and you'll have to forgive me air force met, i'm one of those ppl that believe that moss on the north side of trees is there for a reason and i also watch nature.

if you ever are down here at eglin, i would be happy to discuss this further.

[wxman57]

Listen up OK.. They do on that chart show that they are coming towards Florida but are SCHEDULED TO TURN......

Using that reasoning, every disturbance coming off Africa and heading across the Atlantic is heading for Florida ... even though they may be forecast to rurn before hitting Florida. But it doesn't mean Florida is going to be hit just because at some point in each storm's life one can extrapolate the track lin a straight line to Florida.

Look at the deep upper-level trof lying just east of Florida. There is no steering mechanism now to take the storm west to Florida.

[Lindaloo]

THANK YOU!! wxman57.

[wxman57]

There are simply just way too many "know it alls" on this board. If you make an observation they don't agree with well then it's the old "you don't know what you talking thing". Come on let's face the facts here. Yeah sure some you may know a little more about weather than others. But if you were really that good you be getting paid big bucks for your talent but your NOT. Let people speak their opinions and quit knocking them. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing, it's when you guys make it personal that's not right.

I have no problem at all with anyone on this board speaking an opinion based on facts and solid meteorological reasoning. So if you think the storm is going to hit Florida, explain why the models are not handling the upper-level trof off the coast of Florida well, and why they're digging the next trof right into it (negatively-tilted). What do you see to contradict this? We can debate the facts and the weaknesses of each of the computer models vs. the current flow patterns along the east coats.

But simply saying it's coming to Florida because you can draw a straight line at 280 degrees from its current position is not a forecast based upon any facts. That's why I left the WWL board, almost ever post there had every single storm coming right at them. The heck wth the facts.

[mf_dolphin]

The steering mechanism that's been guiding Isabel is the ridge to it's north if I'm not mistaken. As long as that ridge is above Isabel and until I see it going around the ridge I'll keep an eye on it Just call me stubborn LOL

[Lindaloo]

Yeah MF we can't forget that expected turn from a cane earlier this season that hit Texas. The NHC kept saying the turn should come on this day and that day, but she kept moving North then turned when it was ready. lol. Talk about a headache.

[wxman57]

And right now the models for Isabel aren't really all that more spread than the models for Fabian were prior to where Fabian turned; and there's certainly LESS spread than for MOST Cape Verde hurricanes in a similar position; Floyd, Bonnie, etc. had a LOT more spread.

I agree, in fact, I was amazed this morning at how almost every single model is now unanimous in driving Isabel into the coast near Hatteras or north to New Jersey. I've rarely seen such agreement in the models, except maybe with Lili last year when we (and the NHC) predicted landfall within 20 miles from 5 days out.

[Guest]

Ok.............Here is the best way to figure this out for those who dont understand the models:)

Try looking at a water vapor loop! That there will give you all your answers....................Which btw if you do look at it and live in FL you may be in shock to find out the models just may be right!..............................As im looking at it right now i see the area where Isable is supposed to go as says the models opening up...................The featurs farther north and west which should help guide her as well is starting to show up as well.................The main thing to notice i that long black area just to isabels north that is commming down towards her which like last week had the same happen with fabian which in the end help guide her and we all know what direction she turned towards.................BTW im not saying Isabel wil do the same as Fabian and slam Bermuda and stay a fish........................And you will also notice a feature just off the ec which as well imo help keep Isabel AWAY from FL and GA for that matter......................Yea things may seem late but they are happening just as the models and the NHC are saying!...............BTW i do expect her turn to begin gradually as we head later into this afternoon and into tonight....................BTW im not a pro either and nor do i live along the coast so i have no bias in this.................Anyways lets all just cool off and follow this awsome yet potentially devasting hurricane!

[janswizard]

Let's all just agree to disagree and end this thread. The storm is still too many days away from landfall (wherever that may be) to lose sleep over. I suspect in a few days, if it is still heading straight at you, then it will be time to really worry.

And with that.....I'm off to work for another 4 hour shift!

[Suzi Q]

Ok, ya'll don't slap me across the board for this but:

I am now venturing into the other side of the met field, after having been such an amateur for all these years and now deciding to risk brain melt by actually doing professional study via college. This is not to imply that those who DO NOT have degrees in meteorology DON'T know what they are talking about, but it is completely true that once you are "thrown in the fire" so to speak, you DO start looking at things a little differently. I USE to be a HUGE NHC basher, constantly questioning model projections, the NHC thinking, the professional's complete confidence in his/her statements. No more. I still look at each storm with complete awe, but have been forced to start using what I'm getting taught each day when it comes to practical applications. So everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I now tend to listen the profs on here while taking into consideration other opinions. Some of us tend to get very uptight and scared when we see a major storm moving anywhere, be it towards us or not. That can be a natural reaction, but instead of becoming freaked out, we would all be better served and serve eachother better if we would TRY and stay calm and be extremely tolerant of others on this board. I too left gopbi last year after spending too much time reading the constant bashing and criticizing, and not enough time getting VALID information. Come on folks, we're all here for basically the same reason, let's not lose sight of that.

[Air Force Met]

Wxman wrote: "But simply saying it's coming to Florida because you can draw a straight line at 280 degrees from its current position is not a forecast based upon any facts. That's why I left the WWL board, almost ever post there had every single storm coming right at them. The heck wth the facts."

And that is all I am saying. If you want to argue with what I am saying...tell me where I am wrong!!! Tell me why the trough won't be there. Tell me why ALL the models are diggin it too far south. Tell me why the energy is going to go north and not south. Tell me it is going to split and retrograde. Tell me something.

Do not...however...tell me nothing...however...and then tell me that your opinion is as equal as mine because you drew a straight line and the trough hasn't picked it up yet...when the trough that hasn't picked it up yet is not the trough that is picking it up because the trough that it is picking it up is no where near it. That is all the pro-mets here are saying.

As I said to someone in an IM...all opinions are no equal as hard as that might be for some to take. My opinion on someone's heart problem is not equal to that of a cardiologists. My opinion on legal matters is not equal to that of a lawyer. Weather is not an exact science.

What...i think...we as pro-mets ask is that if you want to throw out what we are saying....then back it up with facts...don't just say "that's bull". Otherwise...probably best not to comment. PRo-mets are very protective about there forecasts You have no idea what it is like. It is a personal competition every day you work. You compete with yourself. When you bust a forecast...you blow it for your client....but they understand because "the weather guy never gets it right. BUT...as every pro-met here can attest...the guy you can't forgive is yourself. You go home kicking yourself in the rear sreaming "how did I NOT see that coming!!!"

[wxman57]

It appears that Isabel is already beginning to turn. For a clue, take a look at the latest IR imagery. See that plume of outflow forming almost an arrow pointing toward the NNW. Here, I'll make a picture. Note how the mid and upper-level winds are blowing around the upper low AWAY from Florida? Note the plume of cirrus pointing up toward the Delmarva Peninsula? This is a sign of a storm that is about to change directions. The plume is giving you a big hint about its possible path. Remember the same thing with Lili last year? So, I would ask you, how is the storm going to propel itself upstream and hit Florida? Obviously, it cannot. But a good question might be is the CURRENT flow pattern off Florida going to hold for another 2-3 days?

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/isabelir.gif">