ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Correction: Our winds were slightly N of NW with typical tropical formation low clouds visibly moving in a circulation around the Low.

[SeGaBob]

Convection appears to be increasing ever so slightly in general but not around the center. It has started to look a bit better to me in the last few frames of the visible satellite though.

Its definately wrapping and slowly getting a northerly component to it. convection is wrapping around the center.

At the time I posted there wasn't any storms around the center but now that has changed.

Edit: There's a lot of active users this afternoon because of 91L.

[gatorcane]

HPC discussion on 91L:

...POTENTIAL SFC LOW OFF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COAST...

THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE UNDERGONE SOME SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS...
SOMETIMES IN UNISON... OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH RESPECT TO
HOW TO HANDLE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA. THE
NHC SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS. THE MOST RECENT /06Z OR 00Z/ GFS/ECMWF RUNS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW GOOD CLUSTERING THROUGH ABOUT LATE FRI/D4...
JULY 4TH... TAKING THE LOW AND POSSIBLY DEEPENING IT /AND IN SOME
CASES QUITE ROBUSTLY/ AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
THROUGH SC/NC AS THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH AND SFC FRONT START TO PICK
IT UP FOR THE RIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SUBTLE TIMING/AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND
LARGER SCALE EASTERN TROUGH RESULT IN NON-LINEAR MAGNITUDE CHANGES
TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE 00Z/06Z EC/GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE SPED UP BUT
NUDGED WESTWARD THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC
FRONT TO THE NORTH MAY SERVE AS A SECONDARY PRECIP FOCUS
/PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT/ THAT MAY SET UP AROUND JULY 4TH IN THE
I-95 CORRIDOR FROM VA TO NY. FOR NOW... USED THE ENSEMBLES AS A
BEST GUIDE FOR TEMPS/POPS GIVEN THE BREADTH OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS
FROM NOTHING TO A RAIN/WIND EVENT AND WILL AWAIT FUTURE AND
HOPEFULLY MORE CONSISTENT GUIDANCE BEFORE GETTING SPECIFIC. 17Z
COORDINATION WITH NHC WILL MODIFY THE SFC LOW PLACEMENT FOR THE
FINAL SFC PROGS THIS AFTERNOON.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

[adam0983]

Does any of the models call for the storm to make a landfall in Florida before turning out to sea? Just an opinion not a forecast.

[HurriGuy]

Wind sheer on the west side is going to not make this storm so bad once it gets to the Carolinas.

[SeGaBob]

I'm thinking at 2pm NHC will raise development chances with the mention of a TD forming later today. I might be wrong though...

[hurricanekid416]

How close could this get to a landfall

[fci]

91L seems unlikely to "hit" Florida and even if the system came ashore there should be little to it beyond done rather typical summer tropical squally weather.
I'd be a more concerned "upstream" in The Carolina's as the forecasts show any true strengthening would occur by the time the system turned around and headed that way.
For Florida it seems like 91L would simply enhance daily convective activity.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a low pressure area located about 125 miles east of Melbourne,
Florida. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for
development, and only a slight increase in organization would result
in the formation of a tropical depression. This system is moving
southwestward at around and 5 mph but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday near the east Florida coast. A
turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected by Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance. If this system becomes
a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for
portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain/Franklin

[SeGaBob]

I was close on my guess

[capepoint]

This thing has the potential for disaster. What could be a real concern for the Outer Banks. In a couple days as this heads north it will be heading to near ideal conditions. Warm water, great ventilation, low shear. Euro has been consistent for a week. They now have a storm approaching cat 2 strength with a direct hit. Any other model I would shrug it off. But the Euro has been the most consistent and accurate for some time. One other concern is the consensus of most of the models is right over us. The worse case scenario for the Outer Banks has always been a hurricane during a summer holiday. Fortunately, most of the hurricanes have hit after Labor Day which is the peak of the hurricane season when the tourist population is greatly reduced. A land falling hurricane this week is a worse case scenario. Most don't come for just the holiday, but for the week. 90% of rentals are for the week, not daily. So the tourist are here already for the 4th. To be Arthur probably wont even get a name until Wednesday, much too late for an evacuation (Hatteras and Ocracoke islands require 72 hrs minimum). Any loss of power, damage, flooding, etc will spell disaster to a beach full of people. I don't even want to think of damage or flooding that would prevent people from leaving. I will now pray that the Euro is wrong and this post is just a release for my anxiety.

My thinking as well. I live in the Southport / Oak Island area. Certainly easier to evacuate than the Outter Banks but this is always the peak of our tourist season due to Southports annual 4th celebration. This year has been the heaviest visitor level I've seen since I moved here in 03. Almost impossible to get around right now, can not imagine how difficult it would become if evacuation is ordered.

We have a lot of tourists on the Crystal Coast beaches as well. In addition, Cape Lookout Seashore has a lot of campers. The beaches with road access could be evacuated in a day, but the Cape requires at least 2 days as it's only by boat. Also, remember that the Ocracoke/Hatteras ferry is still running on the long route because of shoaling, so it will take longer to evacuate Ocracoke if it is required, and NC12 still has some very flood-prone areas. With that being said, I really don't think we will have that strong of a storm that would require evacuation, unless the euro is right, but power outages with this many tourists would be more than just a nuisance.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Long-range radar off of Melbourne:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes

Looks like a squall line has developed about 75-100 miles offshore Vero Beach-Ft. Pierce area. As 91L continues to organize and gets closer to Florida, we will have to watch for any feeder bands that swing through though typically the west side of a tropical system is the weaker side.

As far as what to expect with the feeder bands, some rain and maybe some wind gusts but no more than what we are used to with the daily convection we typically get here in the summer.

Also one thing I am watching is possible deep convection developing over the Southern peninsula later this afternoon with daytime heating similar to yesterday and that might help feed into 91L.

[AJC3]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Long-range radar off of Melbourne:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes

Looks like a squall line has developed about 75-100 miles offshore Vero Beach-Ft. Pierce area. As 91L continues to organize and gets closer to Florida, we will have to watch for any feeder bands that swing through though typically the west side of a tropical system is the weaker side.

As far as what to expect with the feeder bands, some rain and maybe some wind gusts but no more than what we are used to with the daily convection we typically get here in the summer.

Also one thing I am watching is possible deep convection developing over the Southern peninsula later this afternoon with daytime heating similar to yesterday and that might help feed into 91L.

000
FZUS72 KMLB 301750
MWSMLB

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
140 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

AMZ555-572-575-301945-
140 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

...SQUALL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE LOW STARTING TO FORM WELL
OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

AT 138 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...FROM 35 MILES
EAST OF PORT CANAVERAL TO 50 MILES EAST OF JUPITER INLET...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 KNOTS.

MARINERS WHO VENTURE WELL OFFSHORE CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30
KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD
SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 2698 7956 2712 7979 2773 8012 2848 8002
2788 7969 2771 7940 2765 7927 2732 7913
2698 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 007DEG 15KT 2832 7997 2779 7970
2761 7942 2753 7921 2715 7892

[Aric Dunn]

Like many have mentioned yesterday today we would see things improve.. dry air is less in all levels and shear is down a bit.. watch the convection to slowly build around near the center as it works out the remaining dry air. could have a td by late tonight or in the morning.

[HurriGuy]

Long way to go with the northwest quadrant.

[Hammy]

I just can't help but point out with all the El Nino talk and comparisons to 1997, that we have a system seemingly forming in a similar area, almost on the same date, and in largely the same manner, as Ana in 1997.

[tropicwatch]

Hurricane Hunters are finding some tropical storm force winds at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricane Hunters are finding some tropical storm force winds at the surface.

not surprised I bet if convection can become a little more concentrated near the center it will get the upgrade at 5... just needs that convection

[Syx6sic]

Starting to look decent in my opinion guess I might want to clean my yard up some here in norfolk va and put kids toys away just to be safe

[Alyono]

NO TS winds yet. The SFMR is obviously having a minor issue, as is typical in these low wind regimes