ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

jaxfladude · #321 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:13 pm

Is everything still on track as far as the models and pro-mets are/have been saying about 91L....?
Hope nothing too serious with this system for this July 4th week!

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#322 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:21 pm

Lowest pressure found at center was 1011.4 mbs.

Aric Dunn · #323 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:Lowest pressure found at center was 1011.4 mbs.

down quite a bit from yesterday..

Convection should begin to build around the center today as it works the dry air out. some convection trying to build to the ne and north..

capepoint · #324 Postby **capepoint** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:28 pm

No doubt it's closed. looks like we get a TD upgrade at 5..........?

vacanechaser · #325 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Lowest pressure found at center was 1011.4 mbs.

down quite a bit from yesterday..

Convection should begin to build around the center today as it works the dry air out.

as long as that convection continues to maintain and increase that pressure is gonna fall.. looks much better in organization today..

whats up Aric!!

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#326 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:29 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2014063018, , BEST, 0, 280N, 787W, 30, 1011, LO

hurricanefloyd5 · #327 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:31 pm

Weather channel reporting that recon saying of 30kts or 35 mile-per-hour winds around the center. 1/2: @TTerryWFTV: RT @BShieldsWFTV: *TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED SOON* New info from Hurricane Hunters, at 4 PM on Channel 9. #StormAlert9 #wftv http:/

#328 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:33 pm

The structure looks good on visible. Lots of spiral bands rotating with a tiny bulb of convection near the center (although there's clear slots around it).

If any of that associated convection to the south gets pulled up into the center then I think we're officially in business

Aric Dunn · #329 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:35 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Lowest pressure found at center was 1011.4 mbs.

down quite a bit from yesterday..

Convection should begin to build around the center today as it works the dry air out.

as long as that convection continues to maintain and increase that pressure is gonna fall.. looks much better in organization today..

whats up Aric!!

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

hey Jesse !!

Yeah, its slowly working out the dry air thats been plaguing it. all the soundings look good

Nimbus · #330 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:35 pm

Time: 17:36:30Z
Coordinates: 28.5833N 79.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.8 mb (~ 28.34 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 491 meters (~ 1,611 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1015.4 mb (~ 29.98 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 8° at 25 knots (From the N at ~ 28.7 mph)
Air Temp: 21.9°C (~ 71.4°F)
Dew Pt: -3.6°C (~ 25.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)

Still some pressure gradient if lowest surface pressure at the center is 1011.

Its so dry and that last puff of convection was weaker than you would expect considering the shear has let up.

tropicwatch · #331 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:39 pm

It is possible that the NHC might upgrade to TS Arthur at 5 if recon continues to report TS level winds.

#332 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:41 pm

They are flying more SE to a big band to see if strong winds are found.

Aric Dunn · #333 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:41 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:It is possible that the NHC might upgrade to TS Arthur at 5 if recon continues to report TS level winds.

Not likely given the lack of deep convection around the center.. and the only TS winds are likely going to be gusts rather than anything sustained till convection and develop and pressure drop more.

artist · #334 Postby **artist** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:43 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/twitter.php
Invest 91L is becoming better organized. TS watches for NE/Central Florida possible if it becomes a tropical cyclone. pic.twitter.com/BiIqaXz4cZ

panamatropicwatch wrote:It is possible that the NHC might upgrade to TS Arthur at 5 if recon continues to report TS level winds.

#335 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:43 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:It is possible that the NHC might upgrade to TS Arthur at 5 if recon continues to report TS level winds.

Anything is possible but I doubt it myself. The structure is good but not good enough. If they do find any TS winds it'll probably be placed well south of the center in the area of convection near the northwest Bahamas, or the spiral band to the west off the central Florida coast.

It's still got a ways to go - I think the best time for classification will be tomorrow when it slows, but it is steadily strengthening.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

artist · #336 Postby **artist** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:44 pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic ... 32/photo/1

Weatherboy1 · #337 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:48 pm

My personal opinion is that if there was a decent flare up of convection right over the center, they would probably upgrade this low to a TD in a heartbeat. That really is just about the only obstacle at this point. The center still hasn't tightened up a ton like some of these other early-season, off-the-coast-of-FL systems we've seen the past few years, but it seems to be on the way there

#338 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:48 pm

030 030 002 00
033 031 002 00

Good Flight level winds or not?

#339 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:50 pm

Winds are increasing at Buoy 41010 and pressures are slowly falling (usually they will rise in the afternoon)...notice the very warm SSTs as this buoy is located within the Gulf Stream.

Some observations the last few hours

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

Hammy · #340 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 1:52 pm

It still doesn't seem to have enough convection to warrant an upgrade, barring finding tropical storm winds, as I've seen systems look far better than this and never get upgraded.

ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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