ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

latest sat and radar showing a turn more southerly even recon looks to be south of last pass. though again it very likely a cyclonic loop as the center is following the developing convection the east and se.

Aric, I really hate to disagree with you but I think it is still on the same heading it has been on. Take a look at the visible and you can see the naked swirl pop out from under the convection and as it does it looks to be continuing on SW. Just my thoughts.

[SeGaBob]

The LLC looks like it's becoming partially exposed again but it might just be me.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure yet,1009.7 mbs.

[USTropics]

Headed out Thursday afternoon to Orlando area...and coming back Friday...gotta pick up the hubby down there, looks like we are in for a rainy trip. Wish it would push on out to the north before mid to late week. There isn't any chance this continues its SW movement and ends up in the GOM is there?

Systems like to follow the path of least resistance and lower pressures. There's a stationary high pressure area in the GOM that would act as a blocking mechanism and an approaching trough to the north that will turn it in that direction.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

that didn't take long lol. An eastern NC tv met just posted on the stations facebook page that recon found 50 kt tropical cyclone winds and we would have a TS at 5, along with watches. Pulling the ratings trigger a little soon????

It may be it being the July 4th week and all, lots of people on the beaches this week up down the E.C. Hope the met is thinking forward for safety sake and not "ratings".

edit: Read down the thread that the 50kt is not official....

I would go with thinking forward for safety sake. I know where I am in NC (I now live in Southport at the mouth of the Cape Fear River), Southport hosts the state 4th of July Festival and the population for this week goes from about 20,000 in the area to about 70,000. The earlier they start talking about it on the news, the more chance they have of getting the tourists aware of it.

[TheAustinMan]

Circulation about to hide itself under the gravitating convection to its southwest.

Source: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[ronjon]

Headed out Thursday afternoon to Orlando area...and coming back Friday...gotta pick up the hubby down there, looks like we are in for a rainy trip. Wish it would push on out to the north before mid to late week. There isn't any chance this continues its SW movement and ends up in the GOM is there?

Systems like to follow the path of least resistance and lower pressures. There's a stationary high pressure area in the GOM that would act as a blocking mechanism and an approaching trough to the north that will turn it in that direction.

Yeah gonna be a battle between the Bermuda High and trough in the midwest. Models tend to be splitting the difference with a slow northward motion after tomorrow morning.

[Aric Dunn]

now that its being pulled to the convection we should see much more convection fire near the center as it enters a much more unstable area and better dynamics. watch radar for the firsts signs of it.. could be seeing as we speak.

[Hurricane Alexis]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure east of Florida.

Updated: An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east
of Melbourne, Florida. While the low is well defined, the
associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational
threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories.
Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development,
and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of
the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained
winds with the low are about 30-35 mph. The low is moving
southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east
coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a
tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central
or northern Atlantic coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast
near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[SeGaBob]

It's not even near diurnal maximum yet.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Would like to know what's keeping the NHC from initiating advisories.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Interesting situation with 91L.. I think we will get a TD tonight if convection continues.

Analysis of 91L and other areas in Pacific: http://goo.gl/pg2520

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Would like to know what's keeping the NHC from initiating advisories.

As stated in their special TWO, the NHC is looking for better organization (and persistence) of convection near the center.

[fci]

that didn't take long lol. An eastern NC tv met just posted on the stations facebook page that recon found 50 kt tropical cyclone winds and we would have a TS at 5, along with watches. Pulling the ratings trigger a little soon????

The Facebook page that was linked DID NOT say that recon found 50 KT winds!
It said that people could expect POSSIBLE 50 KT winds!

[cycloneye]

First Vortex message of the year:

URNT12 KNHC 302022
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL912014
A. 30/19:57:50Z
B. 27 deg 46 min N
078 deg 52 min W
C. NA
D. 20 kt
E. 040 deg 36 nm
F. 119 deg 21 kt
G. 045 deg 83 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 21 C / 397 m
J. 22 C / 396 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 09
MAX FL WIND 21 KT 045 / 83 NM 19:30:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 064 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR

[robbielyn]

Would like to know what's keeping the NHC from initiating advisories.

I'm guessing they aren't too worried about landfall in fl and they said it was below threshold. They aren't wanting to jump the gun on this one.

[gatorcane]

I am seeing some convection building north of the center now looking at radar imagery out of Melbourne. First time we have seen this. Might mean we could see some convection start to finally wrap closer to the center which would mean it would be upgraded to a TD. Got to think it will be by 11pm EST if not sooner.

[Bocadude85]

Would like to know what's keeping the NHC from initiating advisories.

I'm guessing they aren't too worried about landfall in fl and they said it was below threshold. They aren't wanting to jump the gun on this one.

That would be my guess also. If they upgraded then they would have to issue watches and warning for the coast during a busy holiday week.

[TheAustinMan]

Recon just did a loop around of pretty much the center and extrapolated 1008.9 mbar pressures at the surface, lowest we've seen today.

[ronjon]

Would like to know what's keeping the NHC from initiating advisories.

I'm guessing they aren't too worried about landfall in fl and they said it was below threshold. They aren't wanting to jump the gun on this one.

And with a 1010 mb low and winds at most 30 mph, not much to be worried about, lol.