ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

I just got here and I have a question.

If this storm keeps moving south, does it change where it might go?

Not really - the synoptic pattern is pretty well forecast. High pressure in GOM and high pressure over Bermuda. The low will only migrate so far west before it stalls and moves north along a weakness between the two highs. Its not going to move very fast over the next few days however. Notunitl it feels the pull of the trough as it gains latitude will movement start to pickup.

[jlauderdal]

HORRENDOUS decision by NHC

I'm assuming the fact that its a holiday weekend coming up and you think NHC should have upgraded and put out watches/warnings in order to give the public/tourists a heads up as to whats coming their way up in the carolinas?

nhc has criteria for their products and holidays arent part of the criteria
That's really sad when you think about it.

can you imagine if the criteria was changing based on holidays, birthdays, etc...this is science and science doesn't care about holidays

we want nhc to remain consistent so we always know that a watch means and a warning means without a bunch of fine print and asterisks

the public has a hard enough time dealing with plain vanilla watches/warnings without having to add additional criteria into the equation; heck the media at least in south florida makes mistakes when talking about watches and warnings

if there is a threat everyone that needs to know will have plenty of opportunity to be informed and respond accordingly

[SeGaBob]

Aric does this still appear to be organizing to you? It looks like just 2 blobs to me.

[jlauderdal]

that didn't take long lol. An eastern NC tv met just posted on the stations facebook page that recon found 50 kt tropical cyclone winds and we would have a TS at 5, along with watches. Pulling the ratings trigger a little soon????

The Facebook page that was linked DID NOT say that recon found 50 KT winds!
It said that people could expect POSSIBLE 50 KT winds!

I didn't want to list the station, but since you called me out, it was wcti weather center 12, meteorologist Johnathan. The Chief Met there has since refined the statement by the newer met.
And I didn't link a page. I do enough to get myself in trouble, please don't help me..

WCTI StormTrack 12
2 hours ago
BREAKING: RECON Hurricane hunters found 50kt winds (58mph) this is tropical storm winds. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR to be named shortly. ----Jonathan

why not call out the station; they are in the broadcast business thus its in the public domain; no secrets when they broadcast so give them credit for their info

[hurricanekid416]

Is the center in between the blobs

[Sanibel]

Outer band squalling us from the NE. Lots of thunder.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric does this still appear to be organizing to you? It looks like just 2 blobs to me.

yes for sure, but slowly.. although the surrounding environment is condusive.. there is still a good bit of dry air that is entrained into the system hence limiting convection. eventually over the next few hours and over night it should build a good amount of convection.

[capepoint]

Agree with Franklin at NHC. Still too iffy right now. Yes there is a circ but it's having problems wrapping convection, and until today, has not really even had much of a pulse. It's close enough to the coast that even if it went due west right now it would not be able to strengthen much more than a normal summer thunderstorm or an east coast noreaster.. No since making a panic, especially when the models seem to have a pretty good handle on it and it's not supposed to really get going until later tomorrow. Plus it could still fizzle. With that said, I'm kinda surprised that they didn't call it a TD at 5, but he said it was right on the edge. If it continues to look good will probably get the TD upgrade at 11 I think. The big show as far as possible evacuations and preparations comes later in the week when it might threaten the Carolinas.

[cycloneye]

Is there a broad center to the east or is my illusion?

[Aric Dunn]

Is there a broad center to the east or is my illusion?

I dont personally see another center but its possible for one to form or be forming within that eastern convection the quicker motion to the Sw to s would possibly suggest it may be rotation around a mean center .. radar helps

[dhweather]

I forgot to add, I don't think this is quite there just yet. Maybe in another 12-24 hours it will be.

[SeGaBob]

dhweather that update has already been posted earlier if you look at page 21.

[robbielyn]

Agree with Franklin at NHC. Still too iffy right now. Yes there is a circ but it's having problems wrapping convection, and until today, has not really even had much of a pulse. It's close enough to the coast that even if it went due west right now it would not be able to strengthen much more than a normal summer thunderstorm or an east coast noreaster.. No since making a panic, especially when the models seem to have a pretty good handle on it and it's not supposed to really get going until later tomorrow. Plus it could still fizzle. With that said, I'm kinda surprised that they didn't call it a TD at 5, but he said it was right on the edge. If it continues to look good will probably get the TD upgrade at 11 I think. The big show as far as possible evacuations and preparations comes later in the week when it might threaten the Carolinas.

WELL SAID!! Minus the "plus it could still fizzle" part.

[Nimbus]

Is there a broad center to the east or is my illusion?

I dont personally see another center but its possible for one to form or be forming within that eastern convection the quicker motion to the Sw to s would possibly suggest it may be rotation around a mean center .. radar helps

Although that would explain the rapid relocation, there seems to be a pretty strong northerly motion in the low level clouds east of the "primary" circ that the planes have been investigating.


Possibly the shear let up, and the mid level circulation powered by the convection worked its way closer to the surface.

The LLC would just couple up with the mid level circ and stack under the convection.

At least thats the best explanation I have until we see a naked swirl spit out south of the of the convection..

[Aric Dunn]

Is there a broad center to the east or is my illusion?

I dont personally see another center but its possible for one to form or be forming within that eastern convection the quicker motion to the Sw to s would possibly suggest it may be rotation around a mean center .. radar helps

ok so last couple reveals exactly that .. good catch cycloneye... another vort just popped out of the convection to the east... so it appears it is rotating around a mean center.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/m ... h-rgb.html

[Blown Away]

It appears the yellow circle is the LLC and has ducked under the convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[jeff]

This clearly meets the TD criteria. Well defined circ, organized convection, winds of 25-30 KT

Not sure I would call the convection organized.

[SeGaBob]

Is there a broad center to the east or is my illusion?

I dont personally see another center but its possible for one to form or be forming within that eastern convection the quicker motion to the Sw to s would possibly suggest it may be rotation around a mean center .. radar helps

ok so last couple reveals exactly that .. good catch cycloneye... another vort just popped out of the convection to the east... so it appears it is rotating around a mean center.




Uploaded with ImageShack.us



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/m ... h-rgb.html

Is that good or bad for development?

[Aric Dunn]

Is that good or is it bad for development?

means its less organized.. better yet it re-organizing. It does mean its weakening or not going to develop...

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow:
It appears the yellow circle is the LLC and has ducked under the convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

What's the red circle?