WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 140630 1200 7.7N 157.2E WPAC 15 1010

Southeast of Guam...

90W FLOATER

[Hurricane_Luis]

Ooo. I guess this is the one that the models are bombing out on. The WPAC is alive again.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Yep. EVEN the ECMWF noticed this, as the model expects it to be at least a TS. While CMC/GEM & GFS are for a strong typhoon from this tracking NW towards Luzon, the NAVGEM model expects this to be a large but weak typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Ooo. I guess this is the one that the models are bombing out on. The WPAC is alive again.

FYI, this is the future TY Neoguri from the GFS and CMC. This is the one. They have been extremely consistent on this disturbance, so it would most likely not end up like Lingling early this year.

GFS



In the 850mb wind data, Neoguri (in the future), both by the CMC & GFS, will intensify into a category 3 typhoon!

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM:

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE MARIANAS. TWO CIRCULATIONS COULD BE FOUND ON THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING...ONE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES AND THE
SECOND NEAR POHNPEI. MODELS HAVE CHANGED A BIT IN THE LAST 24
HOURS IN THAT THEY PUT LESS EMPHASIS ON THE PHILIPPINE CIRCULATION
AND MORE ON THE POHNPEI CIRCULATION. THEY STILL KEEP THE
PHILIPPINE CIRCULATION THERE FOR A FEW DAYS BUT DO NOT REALLY MAKE
IT INTO THE BIG MONSOON LOW THEY ONCE DID. THE ALSO TAKE THE
CIRCULATION NEAR POHNPEI AND PUSH IT TOWARD THE MARIANAS. IT WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
MODELS SHOW INCREASED WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALSO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK MAY HAVE MORE SHOWERS WITH
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE... WITH THE FOURTH OF JULY
BEING ONE OF THE WET DAYS. WITH THE MODELS SO MUCH IN FLUX WILL
WAIT FOR A NEW MODEL RUN OR TWO AND BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Just noticed what looks like STS Rammasun forming west of Luzon. A bit of fujiwhara going on.

[euro6208]

LOW CHANCE!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.7N 153.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MSI LOOP INDICATES SEVERAL
VORTICES WITH A DOMINANT VORTEX JUST EAST OF CHUUK. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A DEVELOPING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS TAPPING INTO THE STREAM FEEDING
INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[stormcruisin]

looks very promising out to the west as well lots of convection areas in the MT.

You should be able to take so excellent photos of bolts and if your lucky may score a sprite now the MT is active over Micronesia.

[euro6208]

Remains LOW but slowly it is getting it's act together...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.7N
153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, UNDEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010340 NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEALS VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING AN ILL-DEFINED
LLCC. AN OLDER 062253Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF TIGHT TROUGHING
IN THE VICINITY OF CHUUK ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
THAT IS TAPPING INTO THE STREAM FEEDING INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN 96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

00Z GFS had this as a 66 knot typhoon. On the 06Z run however, has this as a strong category 3 typhoon. This is based on the 850mb and 10m wind data. Minumum pressure is below 945 mb!!!

[euro6208]

WOW!

Pressure down to 926 mb, Category 5 Super Typhoon south of Okinawa!

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS basically agreeing on development within the next 90 hours with the latter at 60 hours. From there, it is forecast to traverse the very warm waters of the Philippine Sea and rapidly intensifies!

This should get close enough to Guam for some wild weather.

[euro6208]

Pixels off the chart...

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 140701 1200 8.5N 151.5E WPAC 15 1010

Latest JTWC coordinates

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS shows a typhoon with winds close to 110 kts. The GEM/CMC however, is the most bullish model in the 12z run, with Neoguri peaking at 125 kts. The ECMWF shows a strong tropical storm, while NAVGEM shows a category 1-2 typhoon.

[stormcruisin]

Must be excellent conditions aloft check that outflow

[stormcruisin]

[euro6208]

Up to MEDIUM!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
151.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 011137Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS A WELL-
DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH UP TO 20-
KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

GUAM NWS:

THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS THE WESTERN
PACIFIC. A FEW CIRCULATIONS COULD BE FOUND ON THE TROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE ONE THAT CONCERNS THE FORECAST FOR THE MARIANAS IS
THE ONE NEAR CHUUK. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
WITH THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
THESE MODELS BRING THIS CIRCULATION TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH NEAR THE MARIANAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FURTHER
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST. THE ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM MUCH. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION. 24 HOUR SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE
CHANGES OVER GUAM AND CHUUK ARE APPROACHING 2 MBS WHICH IS A BIT
MORE THAN THE DAY TO DAY CHANGE. NOT 100 PERCENT CERTAIN ABOUT
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM BUT FELT A FEW PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS A GOOD BIT. ADDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS COULD BE CHANGED AND INCREASED IF THE SYSTEM PICKS UP
MORE STEAM.

[stormcruisin]

Modelling suggests this will be a large system.