ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

i was driving from hollywood fl to miami it coming hard we have good rain band from 91l

[TheStormExpert]

Looking rather pathetic right now though IMO.

[NDG]

I think it's 78.5w and 28.2n. The llc has moved a little SE

That's just a little eddy, the main LLC is further south and west.

[ozonepete]

I think it's stopping now because it's getting ready to change direction. Probably also why the center is a little harder to find as it's motion is changing at the same time the LLC is trying to consolidate. I annotated these images to show how the north to south axis of the storm has changed. In the earlier image from 1645 UTC the storm was heading SSW and that's the way the low to mid level clouds were oriented. On the second, latest one from 2315 UTC note how the orientation of the low and mid-level clouds is now oriented from SSE to NNW. It's not going any further south and can't go straight west so it's getting stretched towards the NW and NNW which is probably where it will start to head overnight. It's stopped and is now going to move towards the path of least resistance - northwest That's what it looks like to me.

1645 UTC:


2315 UTC:

[capepoint]

last few frames almost look like shear is increasing. clouds being blown off the whole thing towards the SE

[robbielyn]

I think it's 78.5w and 28.2n. The llc has moved a little SE

That's just a little eddy, the main LLC is further south and west.

I disagree. I've watched the first frame where the previous position of the llc was and followed it to just north of Grand Bahama. It looks like it's doing a cyclonic loop to change direction and start heading north. It's my story and im sticking to it.

[SeGaBob]

I'm thinking that now we won't get TD One at 11pm... looks rather elongated even though the pressure has come down.

Might be lucky to get it tomorrow but I'm starting to wonder about that...


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[robbielyn]

I'm thinking that now we won't get TD One at 11pm... looks rather elongated even though the pressure has come down.

Probably not. Latest frames doesn't even show a tropical looking anything. It looks liked it collapsed. Maybe that's why they held off dry air killing it and shear

[Aric Dunn]

I think it's stopping now because it's getting ready to change direction. Probably also why the center is a little harder to find as it's motion is changing at the same time the LLC is trying to consolidate. I annotated these images to show how the north to south axis of the storm has changed. In the earlier image from 1645 UTC the storm was heading SSW and that's the way the low to mid level clouds were oriented. On the second, latest one from 2315 UTC note how the orientation of the low and mid-level clouds is now oriented from SSE to NNW. It's not going any further south and can't go straight west so it's getting stretched towards the NW and NNW which is probably where it will start to head overnight. It's stopped and is now going to move towards the path of least resistance - northwest That's what it looks like to me.

1645 UTC:


2315 UTC:

right and its elongated do to the multiple vorts that developed. though the the vort moving to the east at the moment seems have tucked under all the developing convection and if it can maintain may help organize and consolidate the a center.

[ronjon]

91L seems to be fighting for its life now. Struggling with that surge of hot dry continental air from the north. The models were on to something in that they really never developed it until it was much further north where RH and PW values are progged to be higher under the influence of the trough and Bermuda high - plus aided by a baroclinic kick. As last season told us, mid-level dry air can really hamper these developing systems.

not fighting for its life at all. It continues to intensify based upon the surface data. Pressure down to 1008mb

I'm not convinced Alyono. SAT presentation is degrading. It's being killed by low RH air and subsidence from the ridge to its NW. Can it hold its own over the next day or so. Sure. But I see little evidence at present of a deepening system. Yes pressure dropped a few mb but until I see more than one half circle of convection I don't see any better organized system.

[ozonepete]

I also think it doesn't look that hot right now. From all of the data I looked at and the satellite loops I think it's still got north-northwesterly shear that's blowing the thunderstorm tops off. The data doesn't show much dry air at all at 700mb or 500mb and by now much of the residual dry air should have been entrained and mixed out. Although there's probably some dry air issues left, I don't think that's nearly as important as the shear. Now we'll probably have to wait until tomorrow afternoon when shear starts dropping off. Ok, well maybe sooner; whenever the shear drops off.

[SeGaBob]

I think about 50/60% would be reasonable development chances right now.

[Alyono]

I think about 50/60% would be reasonable development chances right now.

those would be extremely UNREASONABLE and I would be here calling out NHC if they assigned those probs

This is a guaranteed developer

[Blown Away]

Convection popping near the 00z location...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[NDG]

Looking at radar and surface observations from Grand Bahama Island where winds in the western tip have switched to the SW, this is where I see COC getting together with convection firing up very close to it.

[BobHarlem]

Based on a long loop radar I think movement south has stopped, it may be slipping west if anything, but can't tell if the center is elongated or not from that alone. The northern semicircle is still pathetic.

[artist]

Not sure why the Bahamian disturbance is not being classified yet. Far worse things have been 8:14pm - 30 Jun 14

From Derek Ortt

[ozonepete]

I think about 50/60% would be reasonable development chances right now.

No. I think 80% is fine. I would go 90 or 100 myself. the momentary struggles it's having now can't be considered for the overall picture, which is very good.

[cycloneye]

I also think it doesn't look that hot right now. From all of the data I looked at and the satellite loops I think it's still got north-northwesterly shear that's blowing the thunderstorm tops off. The data doesn't show much dry air at all at 700mb or 500mb and by now much of the residual dry air should have been entrained and mixed out. Although there's probably some dry air issues left, I don't think that's nearly as important as the shear. Now we'll probably have to wait until tomorrow afternoon when shear starts dropping off. Ok, well maybe sooner; whenever the shear drops off.

whenever

is the best word to use as mother nature do it's thing in the atmosphere on it's own timetable.

[ozonepete]

I also think it doesn't look that hot right now. From all of the data I looked at and the satellite loops I think it's still got north-northwesterly shear that's blowing the thunderstorm tops off. The data doesn't show much dry air at all at 700mb or 500mb and by now much of the residual dry air should have been entrained and mixed out. Although there's probably some dry air issues left, I don't think that's nearly as important as the shear. Now we'll probably have to wait until tomorrow afternoon when shear starts dropping off. Ok, well maybe sooner; whenever the shear drops off.

whenever

is the best word to use as mother nature do it's thing in the atmosphere on it's own timetable.

lol! the simple truth.