THE RIDGE RULES! NHC 11 A.M. SAYS MODELS NOT.........

#21 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:57 am

Very true Jetmax. This is a Cat2/low 3 if it goes inland north of the Gulfstream unless it is hauling. Of course...that is nothing to sneeze at. I think it will also be dealing with some shear by that time in the ball game as well.

#22 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:58 am

Not sure how you are seeing that Sircane.

#23 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:00 am

Cali-the other threads have discussed this. The models trending south and west are the ones which had it recurving into the atlantic and becoming a fish. Now those models are lineing up with the others that show an EC hit and no fish. Not more of a FL threat.

~SirCane · #24 Postby **~SirCane** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:14 am

It's going to be interesting.

I just believe something unexpected is going to happen. We may not realize it at this moment, but I believe we may....

It usually does with a Cane of this magnitude. :o

Anonymous · #25 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:09 pm

May hit Florida.......may hit Virginia......Could do a Donna 1960 track up the EC while hauling...........

Yeah the models are taking it everywhere........The one thing we all need to do is Keep a very close eye on this storm for the next week or so as its future motion is uncertain. First the thinking was it will hit Florida....now its the Mid Atlantic. So everyone from South Florida to possibly Long Island needs to pay CLOSE ATTENTION to this board, to the Tropical Prediction Center's advisories, to the models, namely the Euro (ECMWF) and the sats because this monster could do anything. It will probably hit CAT5 again. Hell, it might even slam into SC/NC as a fricken' Cat 5!!

Certainly it looks to hit anywhere from SC northward at the present time, but when that subtrop ridge, the trough and this wayward 'Cane get together and party, anything is possible!!!!!

Stay Tuned!!!! This gig is about to REALLY start jammin'!!! Gonna be one BUSY week ahead......aint no one gonna get much sleep on this board!

-Jeb

#26 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:11 pm

She's still getting great outflow patterns on the north and south, indicating to me a continued west movement:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

#27 Postby **Deenac813** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:20 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:She's still getting great outflow patterns on the north and south, indicating to me a continued west movement:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

I am not saying it will hit Florida but I dont like having storm that big that close to me.. i know it is not really "close" but it sure does look like it!

Deena

#28 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:41 pm

It all boils down to this from the 11:00AM discussion, Quote:

The key
will be how the central U.S. Trough evolves and how deep it digs
into the southern U.S. And Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast
was adjusted slightly to the left of and slower than the previous
forecast...which is consistent with the guna model consensus.
However...it is still too early to determine when or where Isabel
will make landfall. Hopefully...the NOAA Gulfstream-IV synoptic
data mission at 14/00z will provide better model convergence.

Until that time , every one from Florida up to the New England States need to pay attention and follow the future progress of this dangerous hurricane. The rule of thumb in Florida is: Any time you have a hurricane to your southeast moving west pay close attention untill it passes your latitude. Also in the discussion it does not imply that the Mid Atlantic States are at risk.Thoughts and comments welcome.

Robert

#29 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 12:53 pm

Your last sentence is pertinent TampaFla.

Derecho · #30 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:25 pm

calidoug wrote:Recall Andrew... with that storm, it was already AT 25N, and the models kept showing a turn... it didn't turn.

This is 100% wrong.

I've seen all the Andrew model runs. You obviously hadn't.

In 1992 the NHC had just recently added "Dynamical" models, which are the complex models using supercomputers simulating the atmosphere based on Data. Previously, they largely used "climatological" models based on a database of previous storms. They had several models of both types.

The dynamic models all showed Andrew turning West and hitting Florida. the climo models all showed Andrew curving out to sea. NHC ignored the climo models and had a great track forecast.

The LAST remnant of the climo models today is the A98E; all the rest are dynamic models. and the A98E is, by a huge margin, the worst model that currently exists.

Agua · #31 Postby **Agua** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:28 pm

Isn't the CLPPR (sp?) a climatological model as well?

mf_dolphin · #32 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:29 pm

So then calidoug was only 50% wrong. :-)

Thanks for the clarification and info Derecho :-)

#33 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:32 pm

Agree Derecho that the A98E is the worst model -- wonder why they still use it?

THE RIDGE RULES! NHC 11 A.M. SAYS MODELS NOT.........

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