EPAC: DOUGLAS - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
This has little potential from here, in my opinion. I knew it wouldn't strengthen much, when I saw that dry air yesterday and that lack of organization, whether shear was a lot or minimal. I am questioning whether it will even strengthen at all or just remain at 40 mph and then weaken from there. However, that's just my opinion.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139711
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014
Douglas has changed little in organization during the past 6 hours.
The cyclone has maintained a broad inner core with most of the
convective banding features being well removed from the center.
The current intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement
with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.
The initial motion estimate is 305/08 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Douglas is
expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the
cyclone, which will result in a gradual decrease in Douglas'
forward speed. By late in the forecast period, the ridge is
expected to strengthen, which should turn the cyclone more westward
as it comes under the influence of moderate low-level trade wind
flow. This motion will bring Douglas over cooler waters, causing the
cyclone to gradually weaken. The official forecast track is a
little to the right of the previous advisory track, but only to
account for the more northward initial position. Otherwise, the new
forecast track closely follows the multi-model consensus TCVE.
Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak at less
than 10 kt for the next 3 days or so, the broad inner-core wind
field and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 27C
argues for only slight intensification over the next couple of days.
After that, Douglas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a
drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should
result in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 17.4N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.7N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014
Douglas has changed little in organization during the past 6 hours.
The cyclone has maintained a broad inner core with most of the
convective banding features being well removed from the center.
The current intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement
with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.
The initial motion estimate is 305/08 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Douglas is
expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the
cyclone, which will result in a gradual decrease in Douglas'
forward speed. By late in the forecast period, the ridge is
expected to strengthen, which should turn the cyclone more westward
as it comes under the influence of moderate low-level trade wind
flow. This motion will bring Douglas over cooler waters, causing the
cyclone to gradually weaken. The official forecast track is a
little to the right of the previous advisory track, but only to
account for the more northward initial position. Otherwise, the new
forecast track closely follows the multi-model consensus TCVE.
Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak at less
than 10 kt for the next 3 days or so, the broad inner-core wind
field and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 27C
argues for only slight intensification over the next couple of days.
After that, Douglas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a
drier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should
result in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 17.4N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.7N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 19.1N 116.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.5N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Forecasted peak lowered to 45 mph. I doubt this will strengthen anymore.
Not official!
Not official!
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm
Nice tracking you Douglas! Bye Bye...
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm
euro6208 wrote:Nice tracking you Douglas! Bye Bye...
Actually it is expected to strengthen a little, then linger around as a weak tropical storm for about 48 hours again. If this happens, it will bump up the ACE slightly.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm
euro6208 wrote:Nice tracking you Douglas! Bye Bye...
It's not weakening.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Still 35 knots at 18:00 UTC. Quite a boring system in my view...
04E DOUGLAS 140630 1800 17.7N 114.4W EPAC 35 1003
I personally think the chances of further intensification are small, because the structure is very large and disorganized, conditions are not good, and they only get worse from here. It won't surprise me at all to see this peak at 35 knots, in fact, I would personally be surprised if this strengthens anymore at this stage. But that's just my opinion and it's not meant to be compared with any official information.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
04E DOUGLAS 140630 1800 17.7N 114.4W EPAC 35 1003
I personally think the chances of further intensification are small, because the structure is very large and disorganized, conditions are not good, and they only get worse from here. It won't surprise me at all to see this peak at 35 knots, in fact, I would personally be surprised if this strengthens anymore at this stage. But that's just my opinion and it's not meant to be compared with any official information.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Still 35 knots at 18:00 UTC. Quite a boring system in my view...
04E DOUGLAS 140630 1800 17.7N 114.4W EPAC 35 1003
I personally think the chances of further intensification are small, because the structure is very large and disorganized, conditions are not good, and they only get worse from here. It won't surprise me at all to see this peak at 35 knots, in fact, I would personally be surprised if this strengthens anymore at this stage. But that's just my opinion and it's not meant to be compared with any official information.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I kinda like it in a sense just because it's different. But otherwise I agree it is a dull system. Conditions aren't even that hostile.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 302035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014
Douglas is holding its own. The main deep convection associated
with the storm is located in a long band wrapping around the
southern semicircle of the circulation. However, cloud top
temperatures in that band have been slowly warming. A 1700 UTC
ASCAT pass winds showed around 30 kt winds, primarily in an area
about 100 n mi southeast of the center. Dvorak intensity are 2.5
from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Based on these classifications
and the assumption that there could be somewhat higher winds not
captured in the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is held at 35 for
this advisory. Time has run out for Douglas to intensify further.
Even though there is virtually no shear, the system is already
ingesting drier and more stable air mass as it moves over
increasingly cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit
lower than the previous one and shows remnant low status in 4 days,
though this potentially could occur sooner.
The initial motion is 305/09. Douglas is moving into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge to its north, which should result in a
continued northwestward motion but at considerably slower forward
speed. Once the cyclone decouples and become a shallow vortex, a
turn toward the west is expected prior to dissipation. The NHC track
forecast is adjusted only slightly to the north, closer to the
multi-model consensus as well as the ECMWF and GFS solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 17.7N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 18.3N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 19.3N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.6N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 19.6N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
WTPZ44 KNHC 302035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014
Douglas is holding its own. The main deep convection associated
with the storm is located in a long band wrapping around the
southern semicircle of the circulation. However, cloud top
temperatures in that band have been slowly warming. A 1700 UTC
ASCAT pass winds showed around 30 kt winds, primarily in an area
about 100 n mi southeast of the center. Dvorak intensity are 2.5
from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Based on these classifications
and the assumption that there could be somewhat higher winds not
captured in the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is held at 35 for
this advisory. Time has run out for Douglas to intensify further.
Even though there is virtually no shear, the system is already
ingesting drier and more stable air mass as it moves over
increasingly cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit
lower than the previous one and shows remnant low status in 4 days,
though this potentially could occur sooner.
The initial motion is 305/09. Douglas is moving into a weakness in
the subtropical ridge to its north, which should result in a
continued northwestward motion but at considerably slower forward
speed. Once the cyclone decouples and become a shallow vortex, a
turn toward the west is expected prior to dissipation. The NHC track
forecast is adjusted only slightly to the north, closer to the
multi-model consensus as well as the ECMWF and GFS solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 17.7N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 18.3N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 19.3N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.6N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 19.6N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:Wonder if the Atlantic also being active is affecting the E-Pacific?
I would not consider the ATL active by any means.
And the two events have nothing to do with each other (unless there was an ATL storm in the Caribbean/Gulf which would make the EPAC unfavorable). In this case, 91L is off the SE coast and hundreds, if no thousands of miles away form the EPAC.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Tropical Storm
Weak and disorganized minimal TS.....certainly does not live up to expectations
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
In the end I won't be surprised if this accumulates 0.5 units of ACE or less. Now that time is up for this to strengthen, now is a good time for me to start saying my goodbyes since it doesn't have much in terms of winds to bring it down to a remnant low, in my opinion. It is a unique storm, and its appearance is unusual for a storm in this region, but its large size along with a mediocre environment have prevented it from going beyond minimal tropical storm status. Oh well...
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2904
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Somehow, someway, Douglas is up to 40 knts per the ATCF.
EP, 04, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1147W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 100, 60, 0, 1008, 275, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,
Actually, it looks ever so slightly more compact now. Still disorganised but a little better than what we were seeing before. Also, ADT estimates bring it up to nearly 45 knots.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.9mb/ 43.0kt
0 likes
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Somehow, someway, Douglas is up to 40 knts per the ATCF.
EP, 04, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1147W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 100, 60, 0, 1008, 275, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,
Actually, it looks ever so slightly more compact now. Still disorganised but a little better than what we were seeing before. Also, ADT estimates bring it up to nearly 45 knots.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.9mb/ 43.0kt
True, but the outflow to the north is bad. I might have kept it at 35 knts.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: Re:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Somehow, someway, Douglas is up to 40 knts per the ATCF.
EP, 04, 2014070100, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1147W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 100, 60, 0, 1008, 275, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, M,
Actually, it looks ever so slightly more compact now. Still disorganised but a little better than what we were seeing before. Also, ADT estimates bring it up to nearly 45 knots.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.9mb/ 43.0kt
Pretty much spot on. Structure still looks too good to be a TD and appears to be consolidating.
Wonder what happens as we head into Dmax.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest