ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#561 Postby **AEWspotter** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:55 pm

If this convective burst is sustained for a few more hours, then I think that it will be the "slight increase in organization" that NHC is looking for.

jaxfladude · #562 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:55 pm

Just mentioned on The Weather Channel....T.D.#1 35mph.....Time to change the Thread Title... :grrr:

#563 Postby **chaser1** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:55 pm

Looking healthier. I havn't taken the time to look but I'm assuming upper level shear was forecast to drop off a bit? I am thinking that increased co-located convection over the COC, along with proximity to the Florida coast & the Bahamas, will leave NHC little choice but to upgrade to a depression soon, and possibly jump straight to a T.S.

hurricanes1234 · #564 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:56 pm

We have Tropical Depression One! Well, would you look at that?! It forms at 11:00 PM on June 30th, so it still counts as June!
:double:

hurricanefloyd5 · #565 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:57 pm

000
WTNT21 KNHC 010253
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

tropicwatch · #566 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:Very good graphic of where is the main low. Is under convection.

That puts it close to where it appeared to be during the last frames of the visible loop(where there was no CDO 8-)

) . Looks like stationary for the time being.

SunnyThoughts · #567 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 9:58 pm

Good, IM glad they went ahead and classified it...now folks watching their local weather along the east coast coming up shortly during local news casts, will know whats going on and can take the weather into consideration when planning their weekend.

jaxfladude · #568 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:00 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:We have Tropical Depression One! Well, would you look at that?! It forms at 11:00 PM on June 30th, so it still counts as June!

Looked like a T.D. around 8pm tonight. NHC pulled the trigger and we now have T.D. #1! JMHO!!!!!

Edit:
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#569 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:02 pm

Duddy · #570 Postby **Duddy** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:02 pm

And the 2014 season has officially kicked off! Who needs the World Cup eh?

Convection is looking good tonight. I expect a slightly more organized storm tomorrow.

#571 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:07 pm

Don't have it becoming a hurricane.

jaxfladude · #572 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:09 pm

Duddy wrote:And the 2014 season has officially kicked off! Who needs the World Cup eh?

Convection is looking good tonight. I expect a slightly more organized storm tomorrow.

Last Minute Goal!! June 2014 Atlantic Ocean Basin gets at least a T.D. !!!!!

Hope the worst stays off shore for everyone....looks like the track is a clipper-wise one.. thoughts/corrections?

Duddy · #573 Postby **Duddy** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:10 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
Duddy wrote:And the 2014 season has officially kicked off! Who needs the World Cup eh?

Convection is looking good tonight. I expect a slightly more organized storm tomorrow.

Last Minute Goal!! June 2014 Atlantic Ocean Basin gets at least a T.D. !!!!!

Hope the worst stays off shore for everyone....looks like the track is a clipper-wise one.. thoughts/corrections?

Won't matter either way for me. July 4th plans are ruined. Gonna be an indoor day. Maybe I'll cook up some shrimp and Mahi Mahi.

#574 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:13 pm

The track means a lot. Less land interaction = higher intensity.

#575 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:13 pm

That blow up of convection right over the center did it for the NHC. They had to go with it after that. Fine call imho, not too early, not too late. Carolinas certainly get the worst of this the way it looks right now, especially North Carolina.

Macrocane · #576 Postby **Macrocane** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:15 pm

Now that EPAC and ATL are active, what are you waiting for WPAC?

TD One will be an interesting system to watch, has a good chance of becoming a hurricane, it will depend on how close to land it moves. Unofficial opinion.

hurricanes1234 · #577 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:17 pm

The NHC expects a peak of just below hurricane strength (60 knots).

#578 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:17 pm

First Discussion of TD One posted at advisories thread

jaxfladude · #579 Postby **jaxfladude** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:17 pm

Duddy wrote:
jaxfladude wrote:
Duddy wrote:And the 2014 season has officially kicked off! Who needs the World Cup eh?

Convection is looking good tonight. I expect a slightly more organized storm tomorrow.

Last Minute Goal!! June 2014 Atlantic Ocean Basin gets at least a T.D. !!!!!

Hope the worst stays off shore for everyone....looks like the track is a clipper-wise one.. thoughts/corrections?

Won't matter either way for me. July 4th plans are ruined. Gonna be an indoor day. Maybe I'll cook up some shrimp and Mahi Mahi.

Ouch

Enjoy the shrimp and Mahi Mahi....It always sucks to have a holiday or plans ruined by weather....

Aric Dunn · #580 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jun 30, 2014 10:33 pm

still 2 vorts spinning around in there.. clearly the dry air and shear ( mid level) are keeping it check for the time being.

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