ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

SOI is currently very negative, and the 30-day and monthly averages went down to negative.

SOI values for 01 Jul 2014
Average for last 30 days -2.4
Average for last 90 days 3.2
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -22.8
Monthly average SOI values
April 6.4
May 4.3
June -0.8

For the first time since mid April the 30 day SOI goes to negative.

[cycloneye]

The Australian update of 7/1/14 says some El Nino patterns emerge but no El Nino yet.

Issued on Tuesday 1 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

While the tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperature is currently at levels typically associated with a weak El Niño, waters below the surface have cooled and atmospheric patterns continue to remain neutral.

However, over the past fortnight changes have occurred in the atmosphere that may be a response to the warm surface waters–the Southern Oscillation Index has dropped by over 10 points, and weakened trade winds have re-appeared. These changes would need to persist for several weeks in order for an El Niño to be considered established, and it remains possible they are simply related to shorter term weather variability.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau continue to indicate that El Niño is likely to develop by spring 2014. The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño ALERT, indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2014.

For Australia, El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas and above-average daytime temperatures over southern parts of the continent.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Model outlooks suggest the IOD is most likely to remain neutral through winter and spring. The likelihood of a positive IOD event increases with El Niño. Positive IOD events are typically associated with large parts of southern and central Australia experiencing lower rainfall than usual.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[cycloneye]

Found an interesting site about the data of sst's and it looks like the Levi Cowan's satellite one may not be the best to look at.Ntxw,what is your take on this?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/ma ... -ersst-v3b

[LarryWx]

In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming of sorts! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[NDG]

In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming of sorts! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Yet another reason not to trust the CDAS, IMO. Better to follow the weekly updates from the CPC.

[CaliforniaResident]

In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming of sorts! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Another round of possibly "cancelling" the El Nino? 2012 all over all. 2012 was also supposed to be a very "quiet" hurricane season for the Atlantic but actually turned out to be one of the busiest, especially with Sandy at the end. Now you guy have early season Arthur making a beeline for North Carolina and possibly brushing up Northeastern U.S.

It seems too early for history to repeat itself but I'm seeing the pattern.

[LarryWx]

Cowan satellite based data: 3.4 down to only +0.299 as of 0z 7/2 after being above +1.000 on 6/26. However, it appears that a bottom may be approaching here in the high +0.2's, which is the coolest since mid-April! Once it bottoms, let's see if there is at least a deadcat bounce.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Cyclenall]

In just the five days since Thursday, 6/26, the satellite based (CDAS) Cowan in Nino 3.4 has plunged all the way from ~+1.035 down to +0.326 as of 6Z today, a drop of ~0.7 C, and is still steadily falling! It is actually now cooler than where it was just prior to the recent steep rise that brought it up to a point very likely not seen since the Nov., 2012, false warming of sorts! It is now at the lowest since very early May, 2014!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

Ouch. I hear every week that the next week's readings will be "very interesting and telling". This one was suppose to be very revealing and I have to agree.

let's see if there is at least a deadcat bounce.

That's the first time I've ever read that expression .

[abajan]

let's see if there is at least a deadcat bounce.

That's the first time I've ever read that expression .

It's a stock market expression. I think I saw the explanation in a copy of Reader's Digest many years ago.

[LarryWx]

It still looks like -SOI's will dominate through the end of the month (although it should at least approach zero 6/29-30 before quickly dropping back). We should get some -20's into the mix, possibly including the next two days and ~7/1. The negatives should dominate through 7/3. However, it still looks like there will be a decided rise to positives and it looks to make it at least to the +10's 7/5-6 with a potential peak in the +20's or so around 7/9. It still looks like 7/1-10 will average positive despite the ~-20's on 7/1. Yesterday, I had projected near +1 for the final June monthly SOI. However, I'm now going with near 0 for June as a whole. Regardless, the bottom line is that there still is no longlasting solidly negative SOI on the horizon per the Euro at least. Instead, there looks to be a pretty even mix between negatives and positive between now and 7/10.

Verification of 6/25 Euro, which I used for the predictions stated above: the pattern was hit pretty well, but 6/26-7/3 were even more negative than progged overall. June as a whole ended at ~-1 instead of 0.

Looking ahead as per the 0Z 7/3/ Euro: Rising to -5 to +5 range 7/4 followed by rise to the ~+teens 7/6-7. After that, it should fall through 7/13, when it could bottom in the -30's. I had though that 7/1-10 would average positive. However, it now looks like it will average ~-2 to -3. As of 7/13, it appears now that both the MTD and the 30 day will be in the general vicinity of -6 to -8. The Euro ensemble suggests that the SOI will mainly rise 7/14-18. However, it is hard to tell if it would rise out of the negatives during that period on any of those days. So, it looks like 7/1-18 will easily average negative..perhaps still down at ~-5.

So, bottom line from my perspective per the Euro has changed: despite the prog of positives 7/5-8, it looks like we are and we'll continue to be into a period of negatives dominating to some extent as opposed to the prior back and forth we had through 6/21. Based on the Euro, it now looks to me that July has a very good shot at being the most -SOI month since March, 2014. Will July (as well as what we just had in late June) be enough to finally resume the trek toward El Nino? We'll see. Being that OHC has risen so much recently (to near neutral), that remains to be seen.

[Kingarabian]

Damn, what a free fall. One has to wonder if this is the final obstacle that the impeding Nino will see. Is the atmosphere finally clicking?

[cycloneye]

Being in negative is very good for increasing El Nino chances to come in the coming 1-3 months officially. But it has to stay negative and especially below -8.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Amazed at this rapidly intensifying called typhoon Neoguri over the WPac. Could it enhance the WWB over the equatorial Pacific?

[Yellow Evan]

Some comeback per Levi.

[LarryWx]

Some comeback per Levi.

Now that is what I'd call a healthy deadcat bounce: from +.28 to +.541. Now it looks to be slowing back down.

[cycloneye]

Well,that large warm pool that was in the sub-surface for the past 4 months has shrinked a lot and this is how it stands on saved loop.Now the question is where does ENSO go from here? At least the SOI is in negative but for how long? Will this months update for June of the PDO show more warming above the +1.13? Will there be more WWB's to help warm things?

[LarryWx]

Some comeback per Levi.

Now that is what I'd call a healthy deadcat bounce: from +.28 to +.541. Now it looks to be slowing back down.

Cowan's graph is back down to 0.364. Compare this to the high hit in late June of ~+1.050. The lowest it got last week before the deadcat bounce was +0.280 fwiw. After being quite stable for 3+ months, it has been quite unstable for the last 2+ weeks.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[Hurricaneman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... eq_anm.gif

Looking at this there will be a weak El Nino at best so based on anomalies and graphs and satellites El Nino may not even come which would throw a monkey wrench in everybodys forecast. It went from everyone expecting a Super El Nino back in March to there may be no El Nino at all

[TheStormExpert]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

Looking at this there will be a weak El Nino at best so based on anomalies and graphs and satellites El Nino may not even come which would throw a monkey wrench in everybodys forecast. It went from everyone expecting a Super El Nino back in March to there may be no El Nino at all

El Niño or not the Atlantic should not be much (if at all) more active than forecasters are predicting.

[dexterlabio]

It's hard to throw in the towel for El Nino this year, especially if we are to compare this possible El Nino bust with 2012. If we are seeing a negative PDO right now, it might be easier to give up even on a weak El Nino event... That clearly isn't the case this time around. IMO, an El Nino can still be supported as we go into the last half of the year. There needs to be a reinforcement though before the transition from summer to autumn (strong MJO/Kelvin wave)... Lack of strong MJO pulse is killing the chance of EN..