ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

It might be. Not that long ago it was due east of Port St Lucie. So it may have relocated to the south a bit.

Is the llcc east of palm beach/west palm beach under all that convection?

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/s/weather/ ... ive-radar/

Interesting radar loop here ... seems to be more of a twist due east of roughly Martin County/Palm Beach County line. That would be further south and could indicate a center relocation, though hard to say without recon being in there.

Just my opinion and all that jazz!

[tolakram]

Saved Radar Loop

[Frank2]

It is hard to discern, but the twist might be an eddy (there have been several since yesterday, including the one that we all thought was the actual center but was absorbed before sunset) and looking at the radar loop it appears the broad LLC is east of Melbourne and by my eye looks to be moving at 330 or 340...

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like West Palm is going to get some heavy rain soon. Its been on and off monsoon style rain here in stuart about 20 miles north of West Palm Beach.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I will tell you this much it's expanding and exploding. So how many ex word can we come up with. For Arthur getting stronger

[chris_fit]

Convection starting to pop on the NE quad.... this thing might be indeed ramping up. Just my Opinion.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Send recon to confirm the location of the center

[Bocadude85]

If the center is where the NHC is placing it then its going to get very close to Cape Canaveral in my opinion.

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree - looking at the Miami NWS radar one negatively curved feeder band is moving W to E near West Palm Beach and offshore, so the center must be north of there and per the NHC the entire system is moving NW so hopefully that southeastern lobe of convection will dissipate during the afternoon - overcast here in Broward County but no rain at all since last evening...

Frank

[cycloneye]

Send recon to confirm the location of the center

Plane is about to takeoff from Keesler base.Is taxing now.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Someone do something the center south of where the NHC placed the center. It's exploding now. It's ramping up

[eastcoastFL]

Starting to see more intense thunderstorms building around the circulation over the last 30+ mins on melbourne radar.

[eastcoastFL]

If it gets any closer to the coast its going to be a rough ride home for folks in Palm Beach, Martin and St Lucie Counties tonight.

[robbielyn]

it looks like its right on the coast!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The actual low-level circulation looks to be east of West Palm Beach, Florida, in conjunction with radar base velocity. This also makes sense considering it's embedded within the convection.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS has this stationary for 12 hours before moving north between 12 and 24 hours. It's going to be very close to the coast, IF you believe the GFS, and I wonder just how much drift there will be. I could see it grazing the coast before finally turning away.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Plane will tell us where the real center is so let's wait for the data.

[eastcoastFL]

Thank you for sharing that. i hope it starts going more north than west soon.

The actual low-level circulation looks to be east of West Palm Beach, Florida, in conjunction with radar base velocity. This also makes sense considering it's embedded within the convection.

[eastcoastFL]

that wouldn't be a best case scenario. We could see some major flooding in that case. It only takes but a few hours of heavy rain for localized flooding to occur.

[quote="tolakram"]12Z GFS has this stationary for 12 hours before moving north between 12 and 24 hours. It's going to be very close to the coast, IF you believe the GFS, and I wonder just how much drift there will be. I could see it grazing the coast before finally turning away.