ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

The actual low-level circulation looks to be east of West Palm Beach, Florida, in conjunction with radar base velocity. This also makes sense considering it's embedded within the convection.

It's still a developing system and not vertically stacked, so that makes sense...

[Downdraft]

Serves me right for posting comments without checking the loops first (guess I was loopy : ) but earlier today pre-Arthur wasn't very impressive looking at all, but now it does look better organized and even looks like a viable TS at this time, though glad that it does appear to be showing a more northward motion (hopefully it'll take the right side of the cone and remain offshore the Carolinas)...

Oh, well - that's what happens when I'm not entirely focused on the weather : )

Frank

Frank, you quit worrying about the weather and concentrate on your health. A lot of us on here are avid readers of your posts and respect your background. Get yourself healthy and back to 100%. Good Luck!

[NDG]

The actual low-level circulation looks to be east of West Palm Beach, Florida, in conjunction with radar base velocity. This also makes sense considering it's embedded within the convection.

It's still a developing system and not vertically stacked, so that makes sense...

For once today I agree with you, you are correct that circulation seen east of West Palm Beach very close to Grand Bahama Island is a mid level circulation, the LLC is a good 30 miles north of it, IMO.

[ronjon]

12Z GFS has this stationary for 12 hours before moving north between 12 and 24 hours. It's going to be very close to the coast, IF you believe the GFS, and I wonder just how much drift there will be. I could see it grazing the coast before finally turning away.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah not sure if it means much but the NHC track is on the east side of the GFS ensemble average with many ensemble members aligned on the coast. The 12z BAM medium and BAM Dp actually move the system into the FL peninsula. Not putting much stock in those with dynamic upper air pattern evolving as the globals are much better at that. Still, could come very close to the coast per GFS.

[NDG]

32 mph wind gust at Vero Beach.

Conditions at: KVRB observed 01 July 2014 16:32 UTC
Temperature: 26.1°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.4°C (76°F) [RH = 90%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 inches Hg (1011.9 mb)
Winds: from the NNW (340 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 knots; 9.9 m/s)
gusting to 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.6 m/s)
Visibility: 7 miles (11 km)
Ceiling: 3800 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2300 feet AGL
scattered clouds at 3100 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3800 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA (light rain)

Surf picking up:
http://www.verobeachcam.com/

[cfltrib]

Weather Buoy on the western tip of Grand Bahama has steady pressure at 29.88 for the past hour and winds from the southwest at 230 degrees. My guess is the center is 25-30 miles northwest of the buoy.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[Blown Away]

Here in Hobe Sound it went from nice breezy day to this could be a significant rain event...

[Aric Dunn]

still has 2 vorts spinning around in there.. not going to change till convection can build north of it a persist.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The actual low-level circulation looks to be east of West Palm Beach, Florida, in conjunction with radar base velocity. This also makes sense considering it's embedded within the convection.

It's still a developing system and not vertically stacked, so that makes sense...

For once today I agree with you, you are correct that circulation seen east of West Palm Beach very close to Grand Bahama Island is a mid level circulation, the LLC is a good 30 miles north of it, IMO.

A ship southeast of the circulation reported south-southwesterly winds this morning, and a ship to the north of the circulation last night reported easterly winds. This is a low-level feature.

[xironman]

still has 2 vorts spinning around in there.. not going to change till convection can build north of it a persist.

The northern vort is weakening all the time

[NDG]

It's still a developing system and not vertically stacked, so that makes sense...

For once today I agree with you, you are correct that circulation seen east of West Palm Beach very close to Grand Bahama Island is a mid level circulation, the LLC is a good 30 miles north of it, IMO.

A ship southeast of the circulation reported south-southwesterly winds this morning, and a ship to the north of the circulation last night reported easterly winds. This is a low-level feature.

On radar and visible satellite with actual surface observations, not observations from last night, it is clearly seen that the surface circulation is north of the mid level vorticity seen on radar, recon flight should confirm that. IMO.

[AdamFirst]

I'm heading back up to Port Saint Lucie tomorrow. Let's hope I'm not driving up into one big flood

[Aric Dunn]

still has 2 vorts spinning around in there.. not going to change till convection can build north of it a persist.

The northern vort is weakening all the time

yeah overnight I saw 2 more get spit out of the convection.. one dies another gets spit out..

[tolakram]

17:30Z

[cpdaman]

The actual low-level circulation looks to be east of West Palm Beach, Florida, in conjunction with radar base velocity. This also makes sense considering it's embedded within the convection.

It's still a developing system and not vertically stacked, so that makes sense...

For once today I agree with you, you are correct that circulation seen east of West Palm Beach very close to Grand Bahama Island is a mid level circulation, the LLC is a good 30 miles north of it, IMO.

agreed. the LLC is a good 50 miles north

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm heading back up to Port Saint Lucie tomorrow. Let's hope I'm not driving up into one big flood

Rain has been more in quick squalls rather than prolonged up here in Stuart. Flooding doubtful but It does seem to be drifting closer and closer to FL by the hr.

[cycloneye]

Moving NW at 5 mph.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[JonathanBelles]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

[AdamFirst]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

I don't. I see a general westward drift. Probably another 12-24 hours before there's a true northerly component

[SeGaBob]

I'm not... it appears nearly stationary or maybe a slow westward drift to me.