ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

me, watching the lower cloud deck here in Palm Beach county, they are still headed ssw, to my eye.

[hurricanekid416]

Doubt it's moving NW

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

pretty sure its the fact that there are multilpe vorts.. the northern one is rotating NW ..

[hurricanefloyd5]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

Not buying it here

[SeGaBob]

I don't know if it's just me but the main blob of convection seems to have looped around in last few frames of visible satellite.

[Nimbus]

Primary vort looks nearly stationary, hope recon flies a little further south to investigate..

[hurricanefloyd5]

I hope they fly south

[hurricanefloyd5]

What are the chances of the wind field expanding?

[hurricanekid416]

The northern vort is wrapping around that is why the nhc has a Northwest movement

[psyclone]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

I know looks can be deceiving but it looks like the whole system is lumbering slowly toward the treasure coast.

[MGC]

North half of Arthur is starting to moisten up with a good bit of banding convection starting to form. I would expect Arthur to start a steady intensification trend soon. Might brush up along the coast of Florida later tonight. Gonna be a close call for Cape Hatteras, hopefully it will remain offshore......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[SouthFLTropics]

It appears to me that there is a center relocation that has taken place and the center relocated near the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.

[northjaxpro]

It appears to me that there is a center relocation that has taken place and the center relocated near the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.

That's where the coldest cloud tops are being observed on IR imagery. The COC is within that area in my opinion as well or just west of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island. We will find out when Recon gets in there.

[Nimbus]

Maybe the mid level circulation which was displaced further south finally made it to the surface. We were watching that happen last night on radar echoes from above 10,000 feet.

WXman57 spotted the northern vort exiting the CDO this morning, it may dive back under or dissipate.

First recon is surface to 10,000 so we should know more then.

[artist]

Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?

me, watching the lower cloud deck here in Palm Beach county, they are still headed ssw, to my eye.

I meant sse.

[Aric Dunn]

It appears to me that there is a center relocation that has taken place and the center relocated near the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.

That's where the coldest cloud tops are being observed on IR imagery. The COC is within that area in my opinion as well or just west of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island. We will find out when Recon gets in there.

not a center relocation. rather thats where all the new vorts are starting from. the mid level circ is down there and with all the convection there is general lowering of pressure within the convection .. it produces a vort that then begins rotating around the other.. been going on for about 24 hour now. the northern vort is beginning to drop wsw to sw as the other vort starting to come out of the convection again... the mean center is about east of Fort pierce.

[artist]

Maybe the mid level circulation which was displaced further south finally made it to the surface. We were watching that happen last night on radar echoes from above 10,000 feet.

WXman57 spotted the northern vort exiting the CDO this morning, it may dive back under or dissipate.

First recon is surface to 10,000 so we should know more then.

unfortunately they are having communications issues right now.

[xironman]

still has 2 vorts spinning around in there.. not going to change till convection can build north of it a persist.

The northern vort is weakening all the time

yeah overnight I saw 2 more get spit out of the convection.. one dies another gets spit out..

Sure, but then it was being sheared so it would be really difficult to organize. Look at the cirrus now, there is obviously much better outflow as opposed to shear tearing it apart, so I would figure it is this vort's time.

[northjaxpro]

It appears to me that there is a center relocation that has taken place and the center relocated near the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.

That's where the coldest cloud tops are being observed on IR imagery. The COC is within that area in my opinion as well or just west of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island. We will find out when Recon gets in there.

not a center relocation. rather thats where all the new vorts are starting from. the mid level circ is down there and with all the convection there is general lowering of pressure within the convection .. it produces a vort that then begins rotating around the other.. been going on for about 24 hour now. the northern vort is beginning to drop wsw to sw as the other vort starting to come out of the convection again... the mean center is about east of Fort pierce.

Yeah, Aric, I see what you are saying. However, it seems that the circulation west/northwest of the western tip of Cuba sure looks very vigourous with impressive convective cloud tops rotating around it. Like everyone, we are anxiously awaiting Recon to get in there to see what is going on, but the vort down west of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island certainly looks better than the circulation east of Fort Pierce. Just an observation.

[NDG]

That's where the coldest cloud tops are being observed on IR imagery. The COC is within that area in my opinion as well or just west of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island. We will find out when Recon gets in there.

not a center relocation. rather thats where all the new vorts are starting from. the mid level circ is down there and with all the convection there is general lowering of pressure within the convection .. it produces a vort that then begins rotating around the other.. been going on for about 24 hour now. the northern vort is beginning to drop wsw to sw as the other vort starting to come out of the convection again... the mean center is about east of Fort pierce.

Yeah, Aric, I see what you are saying. However, it seems that the circulation west/northwest of the western tip of Cuba sure looks very vigourous with impressive convective cloud tops rotating around it. Like everyone, we are anxiously awaiting Recon to get in there to see what is going on, but the vort down west of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island certainly looks better than the circulation east of Fort Pierce. Just an observation.

Cuba???