ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

I fixed the center on our radar about 70E of VRB-FPR. I don't see any sort of surface center near West End GBI. If it was near there, then SLP would be falling and the wind slackening at the SPGF1 C-MAN, and it's not (currently 220/29P32KT).

You can see multiple small eddies have been whirling about on both the north and south sides of the center since this morning,

[Aric Dunn]

That's where the coldest cloud tops are being observed on IR imagery. The COC is within that area in my opinion as well or just west of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island. We will find out when Recon gets in there.

not a center relocation. rather thats where all the new vorts are starting from. the mid level circ is down there and with all the convection there is general lowering of pressure within the convection .. it produces a vort that then begins rotating around the other.. been going on for about 24 hour now. the northern vort is beginning to drop wsw to sw as the other vort starting to come out of the convection again... the mean center is about east of Fort pierce.

Yeah, Aric, I see what you are saying. However, it seems that the circulation west/northwest of the western tip of Cuba sure looks very vigourous with impressive convective cloud tops rotating around it. Like everyone, we are anxiously awaiting Recon to get in there to see what is going on, but the vort down west of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island certainly looks better than the circulation east of Fort Pierce. Just an observation.

not saying one might die, just saying right now there are still 2 vort out there.. outflow is becoming more defined sign the shear is dropping. only a matter of time before it works out the remaining dry air and consolidates. but atm still 2 vorts

[northjaxpro]

I fixed the center on our radar about 70E of VRB-FPR. I don't see any sort of surface center near West End GBI. If it was near there, then SLP would be falling and the wind slackening at the SPGF1 C-MAN, and it's not (currently 220/29P32KT).

You can see multiple small eddies have been whirling about on both the north and south sides of the center since this morning,

Yes, there are several eddies for sure.

[supercane4867]

High resolution RGB imagery of TS Arthur around 15z

[NDG]

I fixed the center on our radar about 70E of VRB-FPR. I don't see any sort of surface center near West End GBI. If it was near there, then SLP would be falling and the wind slackening at the SPGF1 C-MAN, and it's not (currently 220/29P32KT).

You can see multiple small eddies have been whirling about on both the north and south sides of the center since this morning,

Exactly right, the C-MAN station's reported pressure is only at 1011.5mb, if the surface LLC would had been closer their pressure would had been lower than that, IMO.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the out flow is starting to set up. Not that great yet.

[Buck]

If the winds stay favorable for him, he could turn into a tight, beautiful storm.

[northjaxpro]

I fixed the center on our radar about 70E of VRB-FPR. I don't see any sort of surface center near West End GBI. If it was near there, then SLP would be falling and the wind slackening at the SPGF1 C-MAN, and it's not (currently 220/29P32KT).

You can see multiple small eddies have been whirling about on both the north and south sides of the center since this morning,

Exactly right, the C-MAN station's reported pressure is only at 1011.5mb, if the surface LLC would had been closer their pressure would had been lower than that, IMO.

This likely confirms the COC is the one due east of Fort Pierce based on the C-MAN station ob.

[cfltrib]

Seams to be centralizing circulation in the radar loop. As I stated a while ago: appears to be centered just northwest of western tip of Grand Bahama.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Aric Dunn]

I fixed the center on our radar about 70E of VRB-FPR. I don't see any sort of surface center near West End GBI. If it was near there, then SLP would be falling and the wind slackening at the SPGF1 C-MAN, and it's not (currently 220/29P32KT).

You can see multiple small eddies have been whirling about on both the north and south sides of the center since this morning,

Exactly right, the C-MAN station's reported pressure is only at 1011.5mb, if the surface LLC would had been closer their pressure would had been lower than that, IMO.

This likely confirms the COC is the one due east of Fort Pierce based on the C-MAN station ob.

then the center is moving wsw in that case. only way were getting that type of motion is if it is rotating around something..

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Pressure is falling and winds going up.

AL, 01, 2014070118, , BEST, 0, 277N, 793W, 40, 1003, TS

[Bocadude85]

If the center is east of Ft. Pierce then Arthur will be making landfall in Florida sometime tonight... you can see the center E of Ft Pierce heading westward. Just my opinion.

[jaxfladude]

High resolution RGB imagery of TS Arthur around 15z

http://i60.tinypic.com/fauflw.jpg

Wow, it looks very nice for a T.S. with the all that the system now known as "Arthur" has gone thru and continues to do so.
Better not get it's "act together"....
My best to all!

Edit to add:
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[eastcoastFL]

It appears the coastal towns further south from the center have been feeling the majority of the affects. I am in stuart its been raining on and off and windy. My wife is in west palm and its been storming all day.

If the center is east of Ft. Pierce then Arthur will be making landfall in Florida sometime tonight... you can see the center E of Ft Pierce heading westward. Just my opinion.

[NDG]

Vortex message confirms the best track position by the NHC.


URNT12 KNHC 011848
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 01/18:23:20Z
B. 27 deg 42 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. 925 mb 715 m
D. 37 kt
E. 321 deg 33 nm
F. 056 deg 34 kt
G. 321 deg 33 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C / 754 m
J. 22 C / 760 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0201A ARTHUR OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 61 KT 130 / 44 NM 18:38:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
POSSIBLE EYEWALL SE-SW

But since this morning it has not moved much.

[cycloneye]

Wow,look at the flight level winds.

[hurricanes1234]

Possible eyewall already?

[NDG]

Wow,look at the flight level winds.

Yeap, but I am sure is rain contaminated from the deep convection SE of the LLC. Interesting that they mentioned about a possible eyewall forming.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow,look at the flight level winds.

Yeap, but I am sure is rain contaminated from the deep convection SE of the LLC. Interesting that they mentioned about a possible eyewall forming.

the center they fixed that on... has little to no rain around it... lol cant be a eyewall that has to be a typo.

[NDG]

Wow,look at the flight level winds.

Yeap, but I am sure is rain contaminated from the deep convection SE of the LLC. Interesting that they mentioned about a possible eyewall forming.

the center they fixed that on... has little to no rain around it... lol cant be a eyewall that has to be a typo.

I am thinking that is probably from the mid level vorticity.