ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#761 Postby xironman » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:04 pm

NDG wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow,look at the flight level winds. :uarrow:



Yeap, but I am sure is rain contaminated from the deep convection SE of the LLC. Interesting that they mentioned about a possible eyewall forming.


Flight level winds rain contaminated?
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#762 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:07 pm

xironman wrote:
NDG wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Wow,look at the flight level winds. :uarrow:



Yeap, but I am sure is rain contaminated from the deep convection SE of the LLC. Interesting that they mentioned about a possible eyewall forming.


Flight level winds rain contaminated?




besides the obvious.. finally there are minobs coming in from recon.. there are plenty of winds in the upper 40s to 50s knot range. still being sheared in the mid levels though and dry air .. but slowly working it out.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1731
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#763 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:07 pm

I just realized how good Arthur looks. Considering it's only July 1. Conditions in area more like August than July.
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#764 Postby tailgater » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:07 pm

To my eyes we have a MLC over the northern edge of GBI and a LLC east Fort Pierce, and the LLC is is in sadshape on the eastern end. It Could open up. just saying it could
Last edited by tailgater on Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10146
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#765 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:08 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:If the center is east of Ft. Pierce then Arthur will be making landfall in Florida sometime tonight... you can see the center E of Ft Pierce heading westward. Just my opinion.


I'm at the Ft Pierce inlet... Squally with light winds from the N @10-15 mph... Seas choppy, but not angry like you would expect... Uneventful considering Arthur is just east of me...
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#766 Postby artist » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:09 pm

recon is updating again
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145344
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#767 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:10 pm

Here is where plane found the 1003 mb center.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

#768 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:11 pm

More red and dark oranges are starting to pop on the radar west of the center.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#769 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:11 pm

Beginning to see to first few far outer rain bands from Arthur about to come ashore from St. Augustine southwest to the Palm Coast area. This confirms tht Arthur is finally beginning to moisten the atmosphere to its north.

Image
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#770 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:12 pm

the center they fixed that on... has little to no rain around it... lol cant be a eyewall that has to be a typo.


Might be a green airman, but you never know - could be fragments of one but the wind is still in the low TS range (not counting the Flight Level wind observation at 2,000 feet) so it'd be hard to imagine...

"Rookies!" - Radar O'Reilly, MASH
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#771 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:13 pm

the red dot is recon center fix.. far removed from the convection.. the mid level circ down there very likely helping to bring yet another vort to track..

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1047
Age: 25
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: United States
Contact:

#772 Postby TheAustinMan » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:14 pm

Even longer NEXRAD animation, courtesy Wunderground NEXRAD radar applet and GIMP for compiling all the individual frames, showing what appears to be multiple incipient vorticies within Arthur.

Image
0 likes   
ImageImageImage
Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#773 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:16 pm

Based on the latest Recon fix, and where the COC was at earlier, it seems that Arthur is on a slow drift NW if I am not mistaken.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re:

#774 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:16 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:Even longer NEXRAD animation, courtesy Wunderground NEXRAD radar applet and GIMP for compiling all the individual frames, showing what appears to be multiple incipient vorticies within Arthur.

Image


thats a good loop thank you for posting.. shows the present vort recon flew through coming in from the ese now rotating west to sw.. once the mid shear and dry air lessen then it should deepen pretty quick.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#775 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:17 pm

When you look at the above radar loop you can see the very broad LLC east of Brevard County (discounting the numerous eddies to the south) - per the NHC it's on a 325 heading (earlier I said 330 or 340 - not bad for old eyes : )
0 likes   

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#776 Postby ronjon » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:31 pm

While the pressure is dropping, the MLC is decoupled from LLC. And the LLC is broad lacking convection. Seems to be still struggling to organize. Very poorly organized storm at present.
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#777 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:36 pm

Is the distinct swirl on radar north of Grand Bahama the MLC?
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#778 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:37 pm

I bet recon finds that vort more to the west or even sw from the last pass.. and likely to find a new once they fly through the se quad again.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
hurricanefloyd5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1659
Age: 44
Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
Location: Spartanburg
Contact:

Re:

#779 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:39 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I bet recon finds that vort more to the west or even sw from the last pass.. and likely to find a new once they fly through the se quad again.


What would that mean Aric
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5467
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re:

#780 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 2:39 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:Anyone else not buying the NW motion NHC is selling?


:wink: Yeah Jonathan, I cant help but feel the same way.

I'm convinced that Arthur is still a bit "structurally challanged" and is seemingly tilted SSE to NNW, with the core structure of Arthur still anchored near the western tip of Grand Bahama Island. This doesnt change the fact that upper air conditions are improving and Arthur's over-all structure is looking more impressive with time. Since I dont see any evidence of the mid level core moving closer to the coast (expanding perhaps, but not "moving"), it is only a matter of time for its mid level to begin reacting to the increase southerly steering flow, and then some distinct northward motion of the entire envelope should occur (by sometime tomm.)... and here I am guessing we will see more significant deepening by a more vertically stacked system. I am guessing the motion at some point late tonight or early tomm. will be resolved by NHC indicating a temporary stall, and where in which the mid level circulation begins to catch up with the lower pressure COC.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)


Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests