ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Yup you are correct. I am just concerned about my wifes ride home from work now. Lots of morons on the florida roadways.

But at least that's knowing the system is to your north, not east or south, so that makes it easier to deal with : )

[gatorcane]

Buoy 41010 NE of the center:

[Aric Dunn]

recon just found a 65knt fl wind..

looks as though from the surface obs and radar the northern vort might be finally dying.. the new one has the upper hand all the energy and dynamics.

[eastcoastFL]

Oh and I know this is off Topic but....

GO TEAM USA USA USA

[adam0983]

What should we expect in Boynton Beach Florida tonight as Arthur gets stronger. Been cloudy all day with some light showers.

[chaser1]

WHOA! My local forecast just took a dramatic turn. It was chance of heavy rain with wind 15mph gusts to 20MPH

and now

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Windy, with a north northeast wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

I think your local forecast belies the further evidence that Arthur is not actually "moving" anywhere..... yet, but IS further evidence that conditions along the Central Florida coastline will continue to slowly deteriorate as a slowly organizing storm continues to become a bit more symetrical. If the MLC does not begin to start its NNW or North motion until after midnight..., than i‘m guessing that Arthurs developing banding features will start bringing increasing squalls tonight from Daytona Beach, southward to Palm Beach and perhaps Broward counties. Could get some quick intense rains with gusts to 45 mph.

[northjaxpro]

recon just found a 65knt fl wind..

looks as though from the surface obs and radar the northern vort might be finally dying.. the new one has the upper hand all the energy and dynamics.

I agree. It appears the new vort will become the dominant one.

[Frank2]

looks as though from the surface obs and radar the northern vort might be finally dying.. the new one has the upper hand all the energy and dynamics.

Where's the new one, and is the circulation center east of MLB the MLC?

[Frank2]

looks as though from the surface obs and radar the northern vort might be finally dying.. the new one has the upper hand all the energy and dynamics.

Where's the new one you mentioned, and is the circulation center east of MLB the MLC?

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding some veering winds as it approached the "new" vort/ center they turned before they got to it.. but a near due west wind se of the old vort does not fit.. lol

and I bet again they find the old vort farther to the s out to sse from the previous fix

[Frank2]

Ugh - I can't remember how to delete posts here - anyway, sounds like the system still has many eddies embedded, so I'll just stay with the broad center seen east of MLB that's on the edge of the deep convection to the south...

[gatorcane]

I see some very deep convection blowing up just to the NW of Grand Bahama - could a new center be forming there which would be quite a bit further SE than the current center? Doesn't seem like this system is in much of a hurry to go anywhere.

[ronyan]

Is the reduction .8 from FL winds? 65kt FL supports 55-60 mph surface, Arthur looks to be getting his act together.

[cycloneye]

What about 9981 ?

[Aric Dunn]

Ugh - I can't remember how to delete posts here - anyway, sounds like the system still has many eddies embedded, so I'll just stay with the broad center seen east of MLB that's on the edge of the deep convection to the south...

for the moment but the new one has everything going for it.. watch it over the next hour... recon on the final pass will likely divert and go to that after finding the old one elongating and being absorbed..


after that tonight could be a drastic change... a might have a hurricane given the winds already found... if trends continue..

--------------------------------
speaking of which.. notice the location.. the old one is finally elongating and being absorbed check out the wind barbs..

[JtSmarts]

Not be alarmist in any way but Bastardi has been harping on the potential for Arthur to be a Cat 2/3 when he nears the NC coast. If Arthur continues this rate of strengthening that won't be farfetched at all. Hopefully he remains on the euro track and the worst remains offshore.

[RL3AO]

Arthur looks to be organizing fairly quickly. Wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in forecast intensity if this continues over the next couple hours.

[gatorcane]

Yeah Arthur is ramping up - I am always amazed on how the Gulf Stream can really intensify these systems. We have seen this happen many times in history. Looks like we are seeing another example of that.

[SunnyThoughts]

What about 9981 ?

was wondering about that too cycloneye, if that is indeed a true reading...the storm has lost what 5 mb in the last hour? Can that even be right?

[Aric Dunn]

the next hour or so the new vort/center should take over.. and could see some pretty rapid deepening.. already seeing some now... pressure dropped 4 to 5 mb in the past hour.. and recon did not even make the pass yet