ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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northjaxpro
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Re:

#821 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:35 pm

gatorcane wrote:I see some very deep convection blowing up just to the NW of Grand Bahama - could a new center be forming there which would be quite a bit further SE than the current center? Doesn't seem like this system is in much of a hurry to go anywhere.


This is the debate gatorcane. Arthur has had multipe eddies which is creating a lot of speculation of where the true actual center is forming. Now, Recon is in there now, so hopefully we will get better indications very shortly on what is going on. However, I do agree with you gatorcane that there are impressive convective tops just to the northwest of Grand Bahama Island, and they have been for most of today there.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#822 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:35 pm

More likely that the last past didn't catch the lowest pressure.
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Re:

#823 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:35 pm

gatorcane wrote:Yeah Arthur is ramping up - I am always amazed on how the Gulf Stream can really intensify these systems. We have seen this happen many times in history. Looks like we are seeing another example of that.


in radar range too ! :)
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#824 Postby chris_fit » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:37 pm

Almost looks like a E/SE drift near the Bahamas now, based on the Melbourne radar. I bet that's an illusion though.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#825 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:37 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What about 9981 ?


was wondering about that too cycloneye, if that is indeed a true reading...the storm has lost what 5 mb in the last hour? Can that even be right?



9981 mb :roll:

I only forecast 997 millibars for Tuesday.
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#826 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:38 pm

RL3AO wrote:More likely that the last past didn't catch the lowest pressure.


yeah they did not get close and the old one clearly is elongated out now.. the next nw to se pass should be interesting... probably find plent of hurricane force winds...
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#827 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:38 pm

So was that 998mb pressure legit?
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#828 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:38 pm

IR loop of convection. Very impressive! :eek:

Image
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#829 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:40 pm

This is very amatuerish but it appears on radar that the rain from this system is moving away from the coast. Is this from the storm consolidating and strengthening or is it moving slightly sse?
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#830 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:40 pm

So the faster it strengthens, the more likely it goes NE as it works up the east coast?
The slower the intensification, the more west it goes?

Really worried for my family and relatives in NC. They all live in the Wilmington area.
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#831 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:42 pm

At the rate the of orginization this has undergone iin the last hour associated with the new "center" and the radar presentation... would not be surprised by this evening .. on radar and clearing eye and eyewall begin to form... of course if trends continue
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Re:

#832 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:43 pm

Kingarabian wrote:So the faster it strengthens, the more likely it goes NE as it works up the east coast?
The slower the intensification, the more west it goes?

Really worried for my family and relatives in NC. They all live in the Wilmington area.


I think in this case a deeper system would get steered a bit more NW while a shallower system N or NE. That is what I see when I look at the steering flow in the different layers in the atmosphere currently.
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#833 Postby Dave C » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:43 pm

Outflow really expanding north and east now. :eek:
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Re:

#834 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:44 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:This is very amatuerish but it appears on radar that the rain from this system is moving away from the coast. Is this from the storm consolidating and strengthening or is it moving slightly sse?



part of the organization part.. the 2 vorts have been rotating around each other and the general motion of the storm is drifting.. the convection only beginning to wrap around.. later on the after it becomes more symmetric that wont be a problem..
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Re:

#835 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:Yeah Arthur is ramping up - I am always amazed on how the Gulf Stream can really intensify these systems. We have seen this happen many times in history. Looks like we are seeing another example of that.

What's kind of scarier is it will be riding up the spine of the Gulf Stream while paralleling the East Coast. :double:
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#836 Postby sicktght311 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:47 pm

On vacation here in the outer banks until Saturday. Watching mr Arthur very closely! Seems to be prepping for explosive deepening tonight.
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Re: Re:

#837 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:47 pm

Thanks for answering that for me. I have noticed the winds are starting to pick up but the rain is appearing on radar to be moving away from the coast vs towards it. Thanks again.


Aric Dunn wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:This is very amatuerish but it appears on radar that the rain from this system is moving away from the coast. Is this from the storm consolidating and strengthening or is it moving slightly sse?



part of the organization part.. the 2 vorts have been rotating around each other and the general motion of the storm is drifting.. the convection only beginning to wrap around.. later on the after it becomes more symmetric that wont be a problem..
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Re: Re:

#838 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:48 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:So the faster it strengthens, the more likely it goes NE as it works up the east coast?
The slower the intensification, the more west it goes?

Really worried for my family and relatives in NC. They all live in the Wilmington area.


I think in this case a deeper system would get steered a bit more NW while a shallower system N or NE. That is what I see when I look at the steering flow in the different layers in the atmosphere currently. Of course within the next 24-48 hours or so all steering should be from SW to NE across Florida and the SE CONUS


Shallower system:
Image

Deeper system:
Image
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#839 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:48 pm

Up to 45kts at 5 PM advisory.
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#840 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 01, 2014 3:49 pm

Looks like shear has finally decreased below 10kts.
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