ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

Wow, very impressive strengthening and visible presentation and it came on so rapidly just in the last few hours. This looks like it's really ready to take off.

It's starting to get "the look" now...dmax tomorrow morning could be interesting if he keeps the drier air out of his core. NHC may be bumping that intensity forecast up.

[chaser1]

Aric, i‘m seeing one thing on satellite that would depict a northeast motion....or another cyclonic moving eddy about to be spit out. How are you seeing motion as depicted by radar (am using a new tablet and need to figure how to download flash or java for radar)

im looking at both radar and sat.. yeah the new center (which the convection is following not spitting out) is moving the NNE while if you look at both radar and sat you can see a small vort approaching the coast.. I was trying to say that later on since they are rotating the new one will begin to move back in the direction of the coast.

Wow, i‘m not even sure what to make of that. If this is a new center, as opposed to a vort max, or simply a new eddy that will eventually unwind, are you suggesting that Arthur may be conducting a cyclonic loop? Because, if you‘re right... that may well bring a borderline hurricane very close to Stuart ( or some point of the Florida coactline).

Meanwhile, i was assuming that the apperant NNE motion was indicative of Arthur initiating the northward motion that NHC had been anticipating. However... if satellite is not depicting the entire system lifting more to the north, than this would lead me to believe that the new radar depicted vorticity will eventually unwind and lose support as it fully detaches from its mid level center during the next few hours. Odd system....

[TheAustinMan]

These ship reports are pretty interesting, not sure what to make of them though, 1001 mbar and 1002 mbar from two ships pretty far from eachother.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, i‘m seeing one thing on satellite that would depict a northeast motion....or another cyclonic moving eddy about to be spit out. How are you seeing motion as depicted by radar (am using a new tablet and need to figure how to download flash or java for radar)

im looking at both radar and sat.. yeah the new center (which the convection is following not spitting out) is moving the NNE while if you look at both radar and sat you can see a small vort approaching the coast.. I was trying to say that later on since they are rotating the new one will begin to move back in the direction of the coast.

Wow, i‘m not even sure what to make of that. If this is a new center, as opposed to a vort max, or simply a new eddy that will eventually unwind, are you suggesting that Arthur may be conducting a cyclonic loop? Because, if you‘re right... that may well bring a borderline hurricane very close to Stuart ( or some point of the Florida coactline).

Meanwhile, i was assuming that the apperant NNE motion was indicative of Arthur initiating the northward motion that NHC had been anticipating. However... if satellite is not depicting the entire system lifting more to the north, than this would lead me to believe that the new radar depicted vorticity will eventually unwind and lose support as it fully detaches from its mid level center during the next few hours. Odd system....

the other vort is elongated already and will likely drop south and be absorbed all the while the new would swing back towards the coast.. clearly is no weakening and the convection is building with it..

[hurricanedude]

So where will the hurricane watch be posted this evening? I'm going to say from Edisto Beach SC to Cape Charles Light VA...any other thoughts?

[hurricanefloyd5]

So your saying the storm will swing back towards the Florida coast?

[xironman]

These ship reports are pretty interesting, not sure what to make of them though, 1001 mbar and 1002 mbar from two ships pretty far from eachother.

Normally I ignore barometric pressures from ships as they then to be poorly calibrated. But the wind reports are typically good.

[hurricanekid416]

Will this be like Ernesto from 2012 and weaken because of the multiple circulation centers even though it looks good

[NDG]

These ship reports are pretty interesting, not sure what to make of them though, 1001 mbar and 1002 mbar from two ships pretty far from eachother.

http://i.imgur.com/p1lEw5q.gif

I think they are erroneous because nearby bouys and or C-MAN stations are not reporting such low pressures, one good example is the C-MAN station's pressure in the extreme western tip of Grand Bahama Island is 1007.7mb but the ship just a few miles west of it is reporting 1002 mb.

[USTropics]

Last 10 saved visible images looped:

[NDG]

Will this be like Ernesto from 2012 and weaken because of the multiple circulation centers even though it looks good

What? No, not at all. Besides, Ernesto ended up becoming a Cat 2 Hurricane before striking the Yucatan Peninsula once it slowed down some in the western Caribbean.

[chaser1]

Wow, i‘m not even sure what to make of that. If this is a new center, as opposed to a vort max, or simply a new eddy that will eventually unwind, are you suggesting that Arthur may be conducting a cyclonic loop? Because, if you‘re right... that may well bring a borderline hurricane very close to Stuart ( or some point of the Florida coastline).

Meanwhile, i was assuming that the apparent NNE motion was indicative of Arthur initiating the northward motion that NHC had been anticipating. However... if satellite is not depicting the entire system lifting more to the north, than this would lead me to believe that the new radar depicted vorticity will eventually unwind and lose support as it fully detaches from its mid level center during the next few hours. Odd system....

the other vort is elongated already and will likely drop south and be absorbed all the while the new would swing back towards the coast.. clearly is no weakening and the convection is building with it..

So, essentially Arthur "is" making a cyclonic loop? Or, is this a vorticity max?

[Bocadude85]

Wish some of the smaller islands north of Grand Bahama had reporting stations. Islands such as Grand and Walkers Cay were pretty close to that "vort"

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, i‘m not even sure what to make of that. If this is a new center, as opposed to a vort max, or simply a new eddy that will eventually unwind, are you suggesting that Arthur may be conducting a cyclonic loop? Because, if you‘re right... that may well bring a borderline hurricane very close to Stuart ( or some point of the Florida coastline).

Meanwhile, i was assuming that the apparent NNE motion was indicative of Arthur initiating the northward motion that NHC had been anticipating. However... if satellite is not depicting the entire system lifting more to the north, than this would lead me to believe that the new radar depicted vorticity will eventually unwind and lose support as it fully detaches from its mid level center during the next few hours. Odd system....

the other vort is elongated already and will likely drop south and be absorbed all the while the new would swing back towards the coast.. clearly is no weakening and the convection is building with it..[/quote]

So, essentially Arthur "is" making a cyclonic loop? Or, is this a vorticity max?

not in the same sense as other systems do them... but rather they are rotating around each other.. but the vort near the coast is quite clearly now elongating and being pulled into the main center.. convection s maintaining around the new center..so as of right now its not being spit out.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is Arthur making a loop

[chaser1]

Wish some of the smaller islands north of Grand Bahama had reporting stations. Islands such as Grand and Walkers Cay were pretty close to that "vort"

Yep, pretty hard to understand exactly why the NWS wouldnt have a fixed station there (if only for pressure & winds)???

[viberama]

Wish some of the smaller islands north of Grand Bahama had reporting stations. Islands such as Grand and Walkers Cay were pretty close to that "vort"

Yep, pretty hard to understand exactly why the NWS wouldnt have a fixed station there (if only for pressure & winds)???

No Money????? We be broke????

[Aric Dunn]

the main center beginning the bend to the nnw now...

[TheAustinMan]

Wish some of the smaller islands north of Grand Bahama had reporting stations. Islands such as Grand and Walkers Cay were pretty close to that "vort"

Nonetheless we are having near 45 mph wind gusts from western Grand Bahama per the buoy located there.

[Bocadude85]

the main center beginning the bend to the nnw now...

Yes I noticed that on the radar as well