ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

There is NOT a CDO. In fact, convection appears to be weakening over the center and the big ball is being displaced east of the center. I don't see any shear, so this may just be a reorganization phase

[robbielyn]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

There is a problem with the national point and click forecasts. It shouldn't have that verbiage in it, given the forecast conditions. We've been trying to get the powers that be to fix it. No luck yet, obviously. That should disappear at the top of the next hour, hopefully.

I know the nws has been (slowly) working on different wording; our local wfo is one of the testers on the proposed wording for severe storms and winter storms. But I'm unsure why the line "strong and damaging winds" is not appropriate in this instance? Are these conditions very unlikely in this area or...? Not debating the merits of your statement, just curious as to reasoning.

because gusts of 30 mph aren't strong and damaging. Thats below gale force. We get those winds everyday in TS and strong Easterlies in may

[Sanibel]

Classic low cloud banding and entrainment over the high bridge on the Sanibel causeway on my bike ride. Textbook formation with a steady laminar WNW wind.

[AJC3]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This is for the micco area out of the NWS in Melbourne FL

There is a problem with the national point and click forecasts. It shouldn't have that verbiage in it, given the forecast conditions. We've been trying to get the powers that be to fix it. No luck yet, obviously. That should disappear at the top of the next hour, hopefully.

I know the nws has been (slowly) working on different wording; our local wfo is one of the testers on the proposed wording for severe storms and winter storms. But I'm unsure why the line "strong and damaging winds" is not appropriate in this instance? Are these conditions very unlikely in this area or...? Not debating the merits of your statement, just curious as to reasoning.

That type of verbiage would be appropriately generated by point and click if the forecast track was actually calling for a landfall with the forecast wind fields showing speeds much higher than they currently are (about 20kt or so/20-25 MPH sustained) for that area.

[Nimbus]

Lets see if this works?

Distance in kilometers equals 3.57 times the square root of the cloud height in meters.

[weathernerdguy]

hurricane for 2pm or 5pm advisory tomorrow i think.

[Hammy]

There is NOT a CDO. In fact, convection appears to be weakening over the center and the big ball is being displaced east of the center. I don't see any shear, so this may just be a reorganization phase

Is it possible that the mid-level and lower level circulations may rotate around each other as they consolidate?

[TheAustinMan]

Lets see if this works?

Distance in kilometers equals 3.57 times the square root of the cloud height in meters.

Image of radar was inserted here

Or you could've just used the NWS Enhanced Radar and used the distance calc function to determine the center of that ball of convection to be 102 mi (164 km) at a bearing of 79 degrees east of Fort Pierce

[Aric Dunn]

There is NOT a CDO. In fact, convection appears to be weakening over the center and the big ball is being displaced east of the center. I don't see any shear, so this may just be a reorganization phase

and before recon left the found a circ within that..


The central dense overcast, or CDO, of a tropical cyclone or strong subtropical cyclone is the large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center, caused by the formation of its eye wall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irregular in shape. This feature shows up in tropical cyclones of tropical storm or hurricane strength. How far the center is embedded within the CDO, and the temperature difference between the cloud tops within the CDO and the cyclone's eye, can help determine a tropical cyclone's intensity. Locating the center within the CDO can be a problem for strong tropical storms and with systems of minimal hurricane strength as its location can be obscured by the CDO's high cloud canopy. This center location problem can be resolved through the use of microwave satellite imagery.

[syfr]

Odd that it's stationary. It would seem to be an interesting balancing act (like keeping a marble centered on a table top you're holding in the air) to keep it in one position.

What is likely to be the next weather feature that causes it to accelerate from where it's presently stalled?

[Frank2]

It does seem to be undergoing some reorganization per the above loop - it'll keep the NHC busy tonight...

[cycloneye]

The classic coma.

[WxEnthus]

Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Strong and damaging winds. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

because gusts of 30 mph aren't strong and damaging. Thats below gale force. We get those winds everyday in TS and strong Easterlies in may

I don't see where it says gusts to 30mph, only that TS conditions are possible, which can reach much higher wind speeds than 30mph. Maybe that part of the forecast was posted earlier and not quoted in the comment, so I missed it. That would explain things.

[Aric Dunn]

The classic coma.

can you animate that.. the center region of that i very near the surface circ.. all the velocities and storm track are going around it..

[ravyrn]

Not to take away from the severity of this developing storm, but why does the media feel the need to post misleading images on social media.

[robbielyn]

The classic coma.

I call it the "baby in the womb" just like a baby forming so does these storms it's really neat. Baby Arthur lol

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

there you go.. quite clear.. surface obs .. recon before they left and radar all point to center being near the middle of the CDO at this time..

[robbielyn]

Not to take away from the severity of this developing storm, but why does the media feel the need to post misleading images on social media.

ratings. Ratings = $$$. It's a shame though.

[cycloneye]

The media always overreacting. That is why NHC go rid of the renumbering thing.