ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Re:

#961 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:26 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:Image


there you go.. quite clear.. surface obs .. recon before they left and radar all point to center being near the middle of the CDO at this time..


Winds in the western tip of Grand Bahama Island have switched to the WSW not from SSW any more so perhaps that's the new LLC to the north of them, so yes, I agree.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GlennOBX
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 1:15 am
Location: Duck, NC

#962 Postby GlennOBX » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:27 pm

The Dare County NC Control Group met this afternoon, and decided to make no decision on evacuations or any other actions until they meet again sometime tomorrow evening. IMHO, by that time it would be too late to pull the trigger on any significant evac order. I could be wrong.
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#963 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:The classic coma.

Image

It's this a sign of the system struggling or developing?
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Re:

#964 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:28 pm

NDG wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
NDG wrote:Image


there you go.. quite clear.. surface obs .. recon before they left and radar all point to center being near the middle of the CDO at this time..


Winds in the western tip of Grand Bahama Island have switched to the WSW not from SSW any more so perhaps that's the new LLC to the north of them, so yes, I agree.


correct. even the old vort to the west of moved inland and collapsed all thats left is the this one. I see no more evidence of any other vorts from radar or sat or surface obs..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: Re:

#965 Postby ozonepete » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:28 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:There is NOT a CDO. In fact, convection appears to be weakening over the center and the big ball is being displaced east of the center. I don't see any shear, so this may just be a reorganization phase


and before recon left the found a circ within that..


The central dense overcast, or CDO, of a tropical cyclone or strong subtropical cyclone is the large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center, caused by the formation of its eye wall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irregular in shape. This feature shows up in tropical cyclones of tropical storm or hurricane strength. How far the center is embedded within the CDO, and the temperature difference between the cloud tops within the CDO and the cyclone's eye, can help determine a tropical cyclone's intensity. Locating the center within the CDO can be a problem for strong tropical storms and with systems of minimal hurricane strength as its location can be obscured by the CDO's high cloud canopy. This center location problem can be resolved through the use of microwave satellite imagery.


Aric, thanks for your answer. There's clearly a major circulation under that CDO; you can't miss it on radar and satellite correlation. It's actually a classic example of a CDO.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathernerdguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:44 pm

#966 Postby weathernerdguy » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:29 pm

i guess that's the MLC, right guys?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#967 Postby ozonepete » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:30 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The classic coma.

http://oi58.tinypic.com/2a5nh3q.jpg

It's this a sign of the system struggling or developing?


Developing, and it looks like pretty rapidly now.
0 likes   
Top
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#968 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:32 pm

The air is noticeably muggy down here like hurricane nitro.
0 likes   
Top
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#969 Postby xironman » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:32 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The classic coma.

Image

It's this a sign of the system struggling or developing?

The fist of development.
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

#970 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:34 pm

So is the Center just north of Grand Bahama or farther north of that where the obvious spin is?
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#971 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:34 pm

Also like I mentioned the it would take a turn back the nw to wnw once it absorbed the other vort and quit rotating around it.. I would expect it to get rather close to the coast overnight..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#972 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:35 pm

Looking at the WV loop is confusing - it gives the impression the system is moving ENE...

P.S. I'm using a tablet so am unable to post the image but perhaps one of the pro mets can take a look and see what they think...

Thanks
0 likes   
Top
MaineWeatherNut
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 225
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:06 pm

Re:

#973 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:36 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:i guess that's the MLC, right guys?


That's the LLC... The MLC and LLC may be getting stacked now...
0 likes   
The content of this post does NOT constitute official forecast and should not be used as such. They are the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or Storm2K. For official information, please refer to the local meteorological centers of respective areas.
Top
User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

#974 Postby robbielyn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:41 pm

Major blow-up with expanding CDO making it look like it's heading ene but it's not
0 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D
Top
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#975 Postby xironman » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:45 pm

From radar it looks like an eye wall forming.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#976 Postby blp » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:46 pm

Nice blow-up. Glad to be tracking something in the tropics.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#977 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:47 pm

xironman wrote:From radar it looks like an eye wall forming.


yeah probably a proto one... not quite there yet.. but getting there pretty quickly
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

#978 Postby artist » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:47 pm

Gonzo has been out there sampling for quite awhile. Looks like they are almost through.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#979 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:52 pm

very classic of a couple curved band wrapping around the center.. if this keeps up going to start seeing and eye feature on radar..


Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#980 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Jul 01, 2014 7:54 pm

Recon headed back in tonight right...or wee hours of the morning anyway?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests