ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track is with no change in intensity nor pressure.

AL, 01, 2014070200, , BEST, 0, 277N, 792W, 45, 1003, TS

[Nimbus]

i guess that's the MLC, right guys?

Radar out 102 miles is looking at the 700 Millibar Vorticity and above.
I'm pretty sure it is stacked above a primary low level center down at 850.

The other low level vorticity echoes seen moving counter clockwise on the west side would
have had a hard time feeding it at just 10,000 FT.

[Frank2]

After my earlier post about it being very quiet down here all day, right now we are getting quite a light show - some intense thunderstorms to our N and NW moving eastward...

[ozonepete]

Also like I mentioned the it would take a turn back the nw to wnw once it absorbed the other vort and quit rotating around it.. I would expect it to get rather close to the coast overnight..

As this moves back towards the coast the new center will wind up being not far from where the old (5PM) one was so I'm wondering if the NHC will mention center relocation or just let it go.

Btw when we are saying the center will move back towards the coast we're not talking about a major shift westward or landfall on Florida. We just mean that the COC is shifting back more west-northwest or northwest for awhile as the entire circulation's LLC and MLC finish consolidating. The net result will be pretty close to the NHC forecast track, even though I know Aric has more doubts than I do, lol.

[Aric Dunn]

i guess that's the MLC, right guys?

Radar out 102 miles is looking at the 700 Millibar Vorticity and above.
I'm pretty sure it is stacked above a primary low level center down at 850.

The other low level vorticity echoes seen moving counter clockwise on the west side would
have had a hard time feeding it at just 10,000 FT.

yeah its doing quite well now that all the other vorts are gone..

[xironman]

Almost seems on the verge of RI, but that is tough to say. It certainly has dealt with the dry air and any shear so it would seem like the window is open.

[Hammy]

With the center seeming to rotate around before headed northeast, is it possible that it could take a Diana-type track to where it moves NW and brushes the coast?

[cpdaman]

the high octane fuel doesn't extend that far NW from where the LLC is right now, pretty sure there is marked drop off along the coast North of WPB. ie Melboure, Daytona at least regarding TCHP. If this were to sit and rotate W/WSW I would be a bit more concerned about potential for RI tonite. Note just potential IMO only.

[Aric Dunn]

With the center seeming to rotate around before headed northeast, is it possible that it could take a Diana-type track to where it moves NW and brushes the coast?

I dont think it will make it that close to the coast.. the hole is already open for it to begin the north turn... only the trough to pick it up..

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting first storm of the season so far to say the least, and it's only July 1st! Was expecting the first storm to amount to nothing more than a weak/moderate sheared TS but Arthur is proving to be much more IMO.

[NDG]

[TheAustinMan]

This is the nth installment of NEXRAD gif loops out of Melbourne Florida, extended to show the MLC wrapping southward and further east into the comma shape it exhibits currently. Note feeder band.

[jlauderdal]

big lighting show in fll right now..healthy band coming through..no wind, lots of noise

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon headed back in tonight right...or wee hours of the morning anyway?

Flight takes off around midnight, should be in the storm 2ish

[hurricanes1234]

Is it possible for someone to kindly post an image of the lightning? If not, it's okay. It's just that I like lightning shows. If you are unable to post them, it's okay. Thank you!

[nativefloridian]

Like JLauderdale said.....lots of lightning and thunder and rain, coming through here in Broward. Not much in the way of wind, but lots of noise.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Like JLauderdale said.....lots of lightning and thunder and rain, coming through here in Broward. Not much in the way of wind, but lots of noise.

I was walking back from the supermarket and it was literally a lightning per second but no thunder. Looks like some pretty intense thunderstorms are out there.

[Frank2]

Yes getting pounded right now in SW Ranches - oops - that was a close strike!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Yes getting pounded right now in SW Ranches - oops - that was a close strike!!

Plantation here, and boy did we get clobbered about 20 minutes ago. Looks like there's a couple more lines forming over the Everglades. Going to be a fun evening.

[MaineWeatherNut]

First Eye like feature or actual Eye?



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