ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Frank2
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#1061 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:41 pm

Considering the photo we (Fort Lauderdale and area) are directly under the feeder band that is feeding (!) directly into Arthur like an umbilical cord, and explains the large amount of lightning we are all seeing the past 2 or 3 hours - considering the amount of energy feeding into the system, we shouldn't be surprised its strengthening this evening...
Last edited by Frank2 on Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1062 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:41 pm

The more I look at the last few frames of the radar loop the more I am starting to see the Arthur is still not vertically stacked, the LLC appears to be just west of the MLC, you can see some light showers heading west on the radar loop just north of where I placed the LLC.
But is getting there little by little.

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1063 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:42 pm

CarolinaNBANFL wrote:What is the likely hood this thing hits Wilmington in percentage chances? I am just a computer programmer who loves watching these storms form and just happen to be moving to Wilmington, NC in a few weeks.


if you go to the NHC web site. you can find them all.
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#1064 Postby vacanechaser » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:This process of convection weakening is very typical during the intensification process.. then typically there is a large burst of convection on a portion of the developing eyewall that ends up wrapping around and you get very quick deepening..



Agreed.. Looks to me like it is about to go to town. It won't be long I think before this thing could start to intensify rather quickly.



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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1065 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:45 pm

CarolinaNBANFL wrote:What is the likely hood this thing hits Wilmington in percentage chances? I am just a computer programmer who loves watching these storms form and just happen to be moving to Wilmington, NC in a few weeks.

What does 'hit' mean? We're likely to get torrential rainfall and a period of tropical storm-force winds.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1066 Postby CarolinaNBANFL » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:46 pm

By hit I mean make landfall. I know it is supposed to turn but could that happen later or earlier than expected?
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1067 Postby TheAustinMan » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:46 pm

CarolinaNBANFL wrote:What is the likely hood this thing hits Wilmington in percentage chances? I am just a computer programmer who loves watching these storms form and just happen to be moving to Wilmington, NC in a few weeks.


Per the last National Hurricane Center advisory (this is official) -
*The probability that 34 kt or higher winds will be felt in Wilmington from today til 1800 UTC Sunday is 61%
*The probability that 50 kt or higher winds will be felt in Wilmington from today til 1800 UTC Sunday is 25%
*The probability that 64 kt or higher winds will be felt in Wilmington from today til 1800 UTC Sunday is 8%

For more details see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2047.shtml
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#1068 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:48 pm

Convection filling in.. could be the start..
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1069 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:48 pm

CarolinaNBANFL wrote:By hit I mean make landfall. I know it is supposed to turn but could that happen later or earlier than expected?

It could, which is why residents in eastern North Carolina -- and coastal sections of the entire Southeast, really -- need to watch this storm closely. A landfall on Wilmington directly seems unlikely, but even a small shift westward would mean much more significant impacts for us.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1070 Postby Steve H. » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:48 pm

What do you think the correct coordinates are Aric?
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#1071 Postby CarolinaNBANFL » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:49 pm

This storm worries me because it is very impressive looking and it did not look like that just 24 hours ago. I am not a meteorologist as mentioned but I think this thing has the potential to get extremely powerful just from my experience being in NC and watching hurricanes form over the years. I have seen weaker looking storms get to 80 or 90 in just a few days.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1072 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:49 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
CarolinaNBANFL wrote:What is the likely hood this thing hits Wilmington in percentage chances? I am just a computer programmer who loves watching these storms form and just happen to be moving to Wilmington, NC in a few weeks.


Per the last National Hurricane Center advisory (this is official) -
*The probability that 34 kt or higher winds will be felt in Wilmington from today til 1800 UTC Sunday is 61%
*The probability that 50 kt or higher winds will be felt in Wilmington from today til 1800 UTC Sunday is 25%
*The probability that 64 kt or higher winds will be felt in Wilmington from today til 1800 UTC Sunday is 8%

For more details see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2047.shtml


The stronger it gets though the greater those chances become as the wind field expands.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1073 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:50 pm

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#1074 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:54 pm

Nice!

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#1075 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:55 pm

Image
Latest microwave.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1076 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:55 pm

wow... The NHC is unwilling to do ANYTHING at all with this one until it has the solid data from Recon to back it up... They keep pressure and winds the same at 11pm though it's pretty clearly getting better organized... Oh well Recon takes off in an hour...
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1077 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:55 pm

Important section of the 11 PM discussion.

Data from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a
complex structure this evening. A mid-level cyclonic circulation
accompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N
78.8W. However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in
the radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi
west of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday
morning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the
arrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.
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#1078 Postby CarolinaNBANFL » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:55 pm

That is NO DOUBT an eye on radar now and that thing is a hurricane or close to it. This thing is really intensifying in front of our eyes hour by hour.

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1079 Postby tolakram » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:56 pm

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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1080 Postby LSU2001 » Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:56 pm

Hey everyone, back for another cane season 8-)

Looks to me like it's starting to get that fist shape they get before they take off.
Tim
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