ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

It seems like it is pulsing between dry air hits and rebursts.

Arthur seems to have a knack for bursting during the evening hours and showing attempts to reorganize in the morning hours.

[tropicwatch]

I think the Hurricane Hunters are going to find a deepening system and maybe even enough to upgrade to Hurricane status.

[wxman57]

Tropical Storm Arthur is way off the coast of Florida this morning. If this trend continues Arthur will go out to sea and all it will anyone is some high surf and wind and maybe a shower. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Your second sentence makes no sense at all. You didn't state where you are located. Arthur will certainly have an impact on North Carolina.

[windnrain]

Is the GOM stuff related to Arthur?

[vacanechaser]

Very big decisions to be made for Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks. The locals know hurricanes many of the tourists do not. Evacuation routes are slim.

Routes? Lol.. Really only 1. It seems like they may have to just let the folks ride it out. I doubt they will be able to evac in this short time period. They may try to get people out of oakracoke but other than that?? We will see soon I'm sure


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

Tropical Storm Arthur is way off the coast of Florida this morning. If this trend continues Arthur will go out to sea and all it will anyone is some high surf and wind and maybe a shower. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Your second sentence makes no sense at all. You didn't state where you are located. Arthur will certainly have an impact on North Carolina.

Lol.. Has to be a disgruntled Floridian. Lol


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[xironman]

Looks much more impressive to me on satellite & radar. Convection starting to wrap around the center. Dry air becoming less of a factor. Don't see any reason at all to nudge the track westward. It still looks like the center will track just east of Cape Hatteras early Friday morning. Residents on the Outer Banks should evacuate, however, as nothing is ever certain with hurricane forecasting. They could be looking at a Cat 2 landfall Thursday night. They'll be able to return during the day on Friday after Arthur passes.

Except for Hatteras island if the road goes out at the s-curves north of Rodanthe https://tims.ncdot.gov/TIMS/Cameras/vie ... _Beach.jpg. Then you will have 10,000 vacationers trying to get back to the mainland on the Stumpy Point emergency ferry that can handle about 500 cars per day (in good weather that does not shoal the channel). A total mess.

[TheAustinMan]

Is the GOM stuff related to Arthur?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Looking at satellite loops they seem to have had something to do with Arthur's outflow channels but I'm not entirely sure.

[Frank2]

Yes wxman57, it does have a better radar signature, that's for sure...

[syfr]

Routes? Lol.. Really only 1. It seems like they may have to just let the folks ride it out. I doubt they will be able to evac in this short time period. They may try to get people out of oakracoke but other than that?? We will see soon I'm sure

I doubt many/any of the locals are going to leave either O'coke or the OB for a Cat 1.

It's a tough call for the tourists. Certainly leaving Ocracoke can be accomplished for some via the three ferry routes, but the first step would be to limit the inflow to the island. I'd bet the ferries are still bringing folks in....

[SeGaBob]

Recon goes out again at 2pm right?

[tropicwatch]

Recon goes out again at 2pm right?

Actually I think they are scheduled to take off in about 15 minutes.

[hohnywx]

Tropical Storm Arthur is way off the coast of Florida this morning. If this trend continues Arthur will go out to sea and all anyone will see is some high surf and wind and maybe a shower. I am in West Palm Beach Just an opinion not a forecast.

Why are you posting this again when a Pro Met has told you you are incorrect?

[SeGaBob]

I think he was adding his location and correcting his last sentence but he should've just edited his 1st post.


About Arthur does anyone think recon will find it stronger than 60 mph?

[MGC]

Arthur looks pretty good this morning despite the dry air entrainment. Good looking eye on the radar loop. If I were a tourist in the Outer Banks I'd consider leaving. Been to Hatteras a few time and the road is low and will flood trapping them. Just think of the mess if the road gets washed out again. Even if Arthur passes offshore there will be big surf coming from the Atlantic....potential big mess setting up....MGC

[StarmanHDB]

Tropical Storm Arthur is way off the coast of Florida this morning. If this trend continues Arthur will go out to sea and all anyone will see is some high surf and wind and maybe a shower. I am in West Palm Beach Just an opinion not a forecast.

Just out of curiousity, where does your "opinion" that "Arthur will go out to sea and all anyone will see is some high surf and wind and maybe a shower" come from? Based on nearly every computer forecast model and the thoughts of professional meteorologists, Arthur will develop into a Category 1 strength hurricane (at the least) which will have definite impacts on the North Carolina coast.

I don't know how long you've been a member of this site, but although a number of our fellow hurricane enthusiasts do have their opinions, please notice that the majority of those opinions are based on the raw data which is at hand. Also remember that whenever storms approach the CONUS we tend to get a large number of guests who peruse this site looking for vital weather information. That said, from here on out please carefully consider your "opinions" before posting them as lives may be in the balance.

Thanks!

[WxEnthus]

Tropical Storm Arthur is way off the coast of Florida this morning. If this trend continues Arthur will go out to sea and all anyone will see is some high surf and wind and maybe a shower. I am in West Palm Beach Just an opinion not a forecast.

Why are you posting this again when a Pro Met has told you you are incorrect?

S/he corrected the second sentence to read more coherently and wrong as it may be, the post has a (rather short) disclaimer. Not that it warrants reposting though -- as previously said, this will affect NC in some way, even if this stays far enough offshore to avoid landfall, high surf and riptide currents aren't anything to mess with. They cause serious beach erosion, flooding of the roadways and displacement of sand (making driving and ferry operations hazardous or impossible which can cut communities off from important services for days) and water conditions that are deceptively dangerous. This concern is heightened because of the numerous tourists currently vacationing at the NC coast, who are not use to coastal storms and often don't heed warnings.

[Jevo]

12z GFS Shows a moderately deep system over the OBX in 42-46 hours

[AdamFirst]

My condolences for everyone on the OBX for having their 4th ruined. Maybe it'll stay offshore just enough to have fireworks.

[hohnywx]

Tropical Storm Arthur is way off the coast of Florida this morning. If this trend continues Arthur will go out to sea and all anyone will see is some high surf and wind and maybe a shower. I am in West Palm Beach Just an opinion not a forecast.

Why are you posting this again when a Pro Met has told you you are incorrect?

S/he corrected the second sentence to read more coherently and wrong as it may be, the post has a (rather short) disclaimer. Not that it warrants reposting though -- as previously said, this will affect NC in some way, even if this stays far enough offshore to avoid landfall, high surf and riptide currents aren't anything to mess with. They cause serious beach erosion, flooding of the roadways and displacement of sand (making driving and ferry operations hazardous or impossible which can cut communities off from important services for days) and water conditions that are deceptively dangerous. This concern is heightened because of the numerous tourists currently vacationing at the NC coast, who are not use to coastal storms and often don't heed warnings.

Is there not a rule against posting blatantly false information, disclaimer or not? There should be, if there isn't one.