ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Anyone else having trouble accessing the NWS site? I wanted to see what the latest local statement was for MHX / WILM and I can't get it to load.

It looks like the Weather Channel is having trouble accessing it too. The local statement out of Wilmington is temporarily unavailable.

[seahawkjd]

I find it interesting that the NHC appears to be only issuing a hurricane warning if the hurricane's wind field is forecast to touch a location (according to their latest discussion). The ECMWF has hurricane force winds passing within a few miles of Cape Hatteras on Friday morning.

"Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch."

Does anyone here know what's up with this? In past years, the entire NC coast would have a hurricane warning issued by now, even if the center wasn't forecast to strike the coast. Sometimes hurricanes deviate from the forecast path. That's certainly a change from previous policy, where hurricane warnings extended a good ways either side of the deterministic forecast of hurricane force winds.

Knowing how important this weekend is for NC, the jaded side of me says they are being pressured to hold off on a warning as long as possible if there is a chance it won't be bad. Unfortunately, not a good way to get people off of (or back onto) the barrier islands here quickly. At least they got the Bonner Bridge reopened, otherwise the only way would have been by ferry (though it is for some parts)

[KBBOCA]

Wxman and others. I suspect that there were no evac orders because there isn't enough time for so many people. NPS (National Park Service) is going to close at noon today. Since most of Hatteras and almost all of Ocracoke island is NPS property the closing of the campgrounds will cause enough traffic problems. Here is Dare County Emergency Management Statement.

http://www.darenc.com/emergencymanagement/

Can someone post the statement so those of us who are just merely curious don't overwhelm the site with extra traffic. I've not been able to load the site, and don't want to keep trying given that there are those who really need to access it. Thanks.

[supercane4867]

Radar velocities also strengthened quite a bit compare to last night, won't surprise if recon found Hurricane Arthur today

[seahawkjd]

Wxman and others. I suspect that there were no evac orders because there isn't enough time for so many people. NPS (National Park Service) is going to close at noon today. Since most of Hatteras and almost all of Ocracoke island is NPS property the closing of the campgrounds will cause enough traffic problems. Here is Dare County Emergency Management Statement.

http://www.darenc.com/emergencymanagement/

Can someone post the statement so those of us who are just merely curious don't overwhelm the site with extra traffic. I've not been able to load the site, and don't want to keep trying given that there are those who really need to access it. Thanks.

From the Advisory thread:

Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data
indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50
knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern
semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat
ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.

The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in
the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of
warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows
the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does
the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into
the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose
tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is
very similar to the consensus of the models.

Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning
from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely
accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.
Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 4756.shtml?
inundation#contents

[KBBOCA]

Wxman and others. I suspect that there were no evac orders because there isn't enough time for so many people. [snip...] Here is Dare County Emergency Management Statement.

http://www.darenc.com/emergencymanagement/

Can someone post the statement so those of us who are just merely curious don't overwhelm the site with extra traffic. I've not been able to load the site, and don't want to keep trying given that there are those who really need to access it. Thanks.

From the Advisory thread:

Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending
observations from Arthur during the past several hours. [snip...]

That's the NHC discussion I think? I was wondering about any statement by Dare County?

[got ants?]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon

Looking good

Yup, it looks like the outflow is completely wrapping around. Where the dry air was coming in on the NW quadrant, now seems to have stopped, albeit still a bit on the SW corner (by Lake O). I'm in Hollywood, and its blowing up down here, so I have a feeling that SW dry air will be gone soon too..

[xironman]

That's the NHC discussion I think? I was wondering about any statement by Dare County?

July 2, 2014 10:30 a.m.

Dare County officials are closely monitoring the track of Tropical Storm Arthur. The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Hatteras Island and a Tropical Storm Watch for areas of Dare County north of Oregon Inlet.

With the storm’s uncertain forecast, the Dare County Control Group will meet again today at 5:30 p.m. and assess the storm’s track and possible impact for the Outer Banks and determine any protective measures that may be needed.

Based on the current forecast, the storm is expected to reach the Outer Banks by early Friday morning. However, prior to the storm the area will experience high winds, rough seas, and dangerous rip currents. There is a possibility of water and sand overwash on NC Highway 12 on Hatteras Island and NCDOT is staged to address problems that may arise.

It is important for residents and visitors to stay informed and begin taking necessary steps to protect property such as securing loose outdoor objects and boats. Assemble or restock your disaster supply kit with essential supplies to sustain your family and pets for up to three days. Preparedness information is available at http://www.readync.org

Visitors should monitor forecasts and follow instructions offered by their property management company and be ready to leave the area with all belongings if the order is given by Emergency Management officials.

TOWN OF DUCK

The Town of Duck is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Arthur. A final decision regarding the Town of Duck 4th of July Parade will occur by 5:00 P.M., Thursday, July 3 and will be posted online and on Town of Duck social media channels. Please note, due to the 4th of July holiday, trash collection will be delayed one day and will be picked up Saturday, July 5, 2014. For updates regarding TS Arthur in Duck, and updates related to 4th of July events and concerts, follow Town of Duck on Facebook and DuckOBX on Twitter.

NATIONAL PARK SERVICE

The Outer Banks Group National Parks, Cape Hatteras National Seashore, Fort Raleigh National Historic Site, and Wright Brothers National Memorial, has begun the initial implementation of the Park’s Hurricane Plan in anticipation of the approach of Tropical Storm Arthur. The National Weather Service is predicting that the effects of Tropical Storm Arthur will impact the Outer Banks of North Carolina, by Thursday, July 3, 2014 with storm conditions possibly continuing through Saturday, July 5, 2014.

In anticipation of this weather event, the following NPS facilities will begin closing at noon today, Wednesday, July 2, 2014.

All NPS campgrounds, Ocracoke, Frisco, Cape Point and Oregon Inlet will close at noon today, Wed., July 2 and remain closed until further notice. The Ocracoke campground reservation system has been temporarily suspended.
Silver Lake Marina NPS docks will close at noon Wednesday, July 2.
Ocracoke and Hatteras Island NPS Visitor Centers will close at noon on Wed., July 2 and then remain closed until further notice. Bodie Island Visitor Center, Wright Brothers National Memorial and Fort Raleigh National Historic Site will be closed Thursday and Friday, July 3 and 4. Previously scheduled evening programs are cancelled as of Wed., July 2 until further notice.
Lifeguard beach operations at Ocracoke, Buxton, and Coquina will close at noon on Wed., July 2 until further notice.
The Cape Hatteras Lighthouse will close at noon Wed., July 2 and remain closed until further notice. All park special programs scheduled have been cancelled until further notice.
The Bodie Island Lighthouse will close at 6:30 pm on Wed., July 2 and the climbing reservation system has been temporarily suspended beginning Thursday, July 3.
All NPS beaches will be closed to off-road vehicles by 9:00 p.m. on Wednesday, July 2 and remain closed until further notice.
The Buxton and Ocracoke Off-Road Vehicle Permit offices will close at noon on Wed., July 2. The Bodie Island Off-Road Vehicle Permit office will close at 4:30 p.m. on Wed, July 2.
RESCHEDULING OF FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS

AVON – The Avon Fireworks Committee, Avon Property Owners’ Association, Koru Village, Pyrotecnico, and Dare County have made a joint decision to reschedule the July 4th fireworks show on the Avon Fishing Pier, tentatively to Monday, July 7th at 9:00 p.m.

MANTEO – As a result of the deteriorating weather forecast for Friday, all of the 4th of July events for the Town of Manteo have been rescheduled for Sunday July 6th.

NAGS HEAD – The Town of Nags Head’s Fireworks Spectacular, originally scheduled for Friday, July 4, has been moved to Saturday, July 5 at 9:25 pm. The fireworks will be shot off from Nags Head Pier, as originally planned.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Dare County will continue to monitor conditions and provide periodic updates about Tropical Storm Arthur. The next scheduled update will be Wednesday, July 2 by 3:00 p.m.

To receive email alerts directly from Dare County Emergency Management, visit http://www.darecountyem.com, and follow @DareCoEM on Twitter.

The Dare County Emergency Operations Center will be operating throughout the storm and may be reached at 252-475-5655 or visit http://www.darenc.com for updated information.

[viberama]

I find it interesting that the NHC appears to be only issuing a hurricane warning if the hurricane's wind field is forecast to touch a location (according to their latest discussion). The ECMWF has hurricane force winds passing within a few miles of Cape Hatteras on Friday morning.

"Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance,
the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new
NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the
coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the
forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would
require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the
area under hurricane watch."

Does anyone here know what's up with this? In past years, the entire NC coast would have a hurricane warning issued by now, even if the center wasn't forecast to strike the coast. Sometimes hurricanes deviate from the forecast path. That's certainly a change from previous policy, where hurricane warnings extended a good ways either side of the deterministic forecast of hurricane force winds.

Knowing how important this weekend is for NC, the jaded side of me says they are being pressured to hold off on a warning as long as possible if there is a chance it won't be bad. Unfortunately, not a good way to get people off of (or back onto) the barrier islands here quickly. At least they got the Bonner Bridge reopened, otherwise the only way would have been by ferry (though it is for some parts)

There's no way that public or gov't pressure would cause the NHC to hold off on a warning. They have their models and guidance and are sticking to it. Obviously they have fairly high confidence in the track and hence why there are only tropical storm warnings. They have definitely left the door open for hurricane watches and warnings if needed though.

[syfr]

From the NCDOT website:

ALERT: Tropical Storm Arthur approaches. Hyde County issues voluntary evacuation order for Ocracoke Island; 24-hour service to Hatteras begins. Tolls are waived.
(voluntary order is an interesting concept)

[Jevo]

Something of note... The 12z GEM (Canadian Model) just ran and followed suite with the previous HWRF run with an initial landfall close to Beaufort, then a run through the OBX.

http://i.imgur.com/vkNf0Fi.png

[seahawkjd]

That's the NHC discussion I think? I was wondering about any statement by Dare County?[/quote]

Oops sorry

[seahawkjd]

Something of note... The 12z GEM (Canadian Model) just ran and followed suite with the previous HWRF run with an initial landfall close to Beaufort, then a run through the OBX.

http://i.imgur.com/vkNf0Fi.png

So, I'm not supposed to get mad at the messenger.... right? lol

[seahawkjd]

From the NCDOT website:

ALERT: Tropical Storm Arthur approaches. Hyde County issues voluntary evacuation order for Ocracoke Island; 24-hour service to Hatteras begins. Tolls are waived.
(voluntary order is an interesting concept)

The governor just issued a state of emergency as well. Also, NCDOT is staging equipment near the area on the OBX that usually washes out to fix it as quickly as possible after the fact.

http://wavy.com/2014/07/01/obx-norfolk- ... rm-arthur/

[xironman]

Something of note... The 12z GEM (Canadian Model) just ran and followed suite with the previous HWRF run with an initial landfall close to Beaufort, then a run through the OBX.

http://i.imgur.com/vkNf0Fi.png

That track is usually when they get nasty sound side flooding on the islands, pushes Pamlico to the west on the way in and then the sound sloshes back as the storm passes.

[Frank2]

wxman,

Check your message folder regarding the watch/warning comment...

Thanks

[Hammy]

Didn't bother to check this morning and I come back to find a storm with a wrapping eye and getting better organized. I wouldn't guess say hurricane quite yet, let's see if it persists in it's present state, but certainly looks to be 65-70 mph.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[windnrain]

Arthur has a nice circulation with an eye peaking out, but I'm also really watching that convection in the GOM.

I don't know if my eyes are deceiving me, but it looks like the things are heating up.

[Extratropical94]

Does anyone think Arthur will be a Hurricane at the 2pm advisory. Just an opinion not a forecast.

Personally I don't think so because the NHC will most likely hesitate to upgrade as long as they don't have any proof (e.g. recon data) for hurricane status.