ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Recon extrapolated up to 1015mb in the outer circulation, notably strong pressure gradient

[TheAustinMan]

Okay, new term to me...what is RI-ing?? Re Intensifying?

Rapid intensification

And for further clarification, rapid intensification is "officially" an increase of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) over a 24 hour period. That's the threshold that SHIPS uses, though any phase of quick intensification is often labeled by amateur meteorologists as "rapid" even though it may not officially meet the criteria.

[Airboy]

Vortex Message
L. Eye Character: Closed

[Hammy]

Okay, new term to me...what is RI-ing?? Re Intensifying?

Rapid intensification

And for further clarification, rapid intensification is "officially" an increase of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) over a 24 hour period. That's the threshold that SHIPS uses, though any phase of quick intensification is often labeled by amateur meteorologists as "rapid" even though it may not officially meet the criteria.

Interesting, I didn't know there was an official statistical critera.

[Aric Dunn]

Vortex Message
L. Eye Character: Closed

yeah also the last hour the convection around the eye has deepened near solid ring of green instead of blue.. its trying..

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has 80kt winds across Outer Banks before sunrise on Friday, with 100 kt winds offshore. Center passes just east of Hatteras.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Further down, on the beaches of Carteret, Onslow, Pender counties, no evacuation order has been issued at all. Probably not further down by Wilmington either.
Emergency management here ONLY goes by the latest NOAA forcast points. They base all decisions off of NOAA alone. So until the cone moves back closer/over land, there will be no notice given. This is a draw-back of the NHS moving the cone so slowly after models move.

The cone of uncertainly extends into the Eastern Coast of North Carolina and well the west of the outer banks. Folks should not be focusing on the line only. That said my feeling is this stays just offshore the East Coast of the U.S. on it's trajectory NE with the worst conditions offshore but it is way too close to call.

[UpTheCreek]

They are not yet. Probably too late now to evacute all of the beaches on the OBX. So far the only mandatory evac is Cape Lookout Seashore (all ferry/boat, not too many people), and a voluntary evac of Ocracoke (all ferry lots of people). Also consider it takes a ferry ride THEN an hour to drive up the outer banks to where you can get to the mainland on a normal day. Pretty sure Ocracoke will have issues with people stranded. And also NC12 north of Hatteras is still in very delicate shape, the least bit of overwash will close it. This is usually the biggest week for tourists on both Ocracoke and Hatteras. 24 hours is not enough to clear the OBX this week.

Further down, on the beaches of Carteret, Onslow, Pender counties, no evacuation order has been issued at all. Probably not further down by Wilmington either.
Emergency management here ONLY goes by the latest NOAA forcast points. They base all decisions off of NOAA alone. So until the cone moves back closer/over land, there will be no notice given. This is a draw-back of the NHS moving the cone so slowly after models move.

Also remember that coastal counties in NC normally don't issue mandatory evac orders at all, except for Ocracoke occasionally. They only request a voluntary evac of tourists and people living in low-lying areas and mobile homes.

Very informative post, even living here I didn't know some of that. Thanks Cape!

[weathernerdguy]

this dry air is making everyone think its is a hurricane from the eye, which would not had formed if the dry air didnt come in.

[Jevo]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Further down, on the beaches of Carteret, Onslow, Pender counties, no evacuation order has been issued at all. Probably not further down by Wilmington either.
Emergency management here ONLY goes by the latest NOAA forcast points. They base all decisions off of NOAA alone. So until the cone moves back closer/over land, there will be no notice given. This is a draw-back of the NHS moving the cone so slowly after models move.

The cone of uncertainly extends into the Eastern Coast of North Carolina and well the west of the outer banks. Folks should not be focusing on the line only. That said my feeling is this stays just offshore the East Coast of the U.S. on it's trajectory NE with the worst conditions offshore but it is way too close to call.

Well said Gator... At this point the worse case is the HWRF/GEM verifying with a Beaufort initial landfall and the storm passing through Pamlico Sound with the OBX on the East side of the circulation.

[supercane4867]

Extrap. 990.8mb from NOAA recon

[brunota2003]

NC is usually pretty good at evacuating residents when needed. That said...here are a couple issues I can see cropping up already:

1. It is going to be the 4th of July weekend, a BIG time economy producer for all coastal and near coastal areas in NC (tourism is #1 for the economy in most cities/towns).

2. You need time to evacuate. The forecast has consistently had a strong tropical storm or low end Cat 1 hurricane passing off the NC coast, but close enough to produce effects across the area. This is nothing unusual for coastal NC, and impacts are usually, for the most part, minor and more of an inconvenience than anything.

Now, with that said...imagine being in the shoes of the local EOC (don't just say "oh, err on the side of caution...what if???"). IF you evacuate and the storm stays offshore, you just cost the state and local economies likely millions of dollars in tourism for nothing...if you don't evacuate and the storm comes in closer/stronger than current forecasts indicate...you just potentially killed people, especially tourists who don't know how to deal with a hurricane and try to surf, swim, stay in low lying areas, etc.

So, which do you do? Time is ticking, and Hwy 12 will likely be overwashed in the usual spots by tomorrow afternoon or evening, and the seas will be too rough for the ferries to operate safely...do you evacuate, or just lock it down? I would not want to be in the hot seat dealing with this...you're screwed if you do, and screwed if you don't. There is no "right" answer, imo, and this storm couldn't be threatening at a worse time for coastal NC...

[eastcoastFL]

I am amazed at how well defined the eye looks on long range radar right now. Is this an illusion?

[eastcoastFL]

A huge feeder ban is reaching as far south as Miami. It just passed through west palm beach with Heavy Rain and Wind.

[Alyono]

NOAA recon pressures not as accurate due to the high altitude they are flying

[Alyono]

NOAA winds are indicating 55-60 KT

[seahawkjd]

Wow....



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[xironman]

NOAA winds are indicating 55-60 KT

Looks like TS strength winds a 100 miles east of the center.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

NC is usually pretty good at evacuating residents when needed. That said...here are a couple issues I can see cropping up already:

1. It is going to be the 4th of July weekend, a BIG time economy producer for all coastal and near coastal areas in NC (tourism is #1 for the economy in most cities/towns).

2. You need time to evacuate. The forecast has consistently had a strong tropical storm or low end Cat 1 hurricane passing off the NC coast, but close enough to produce effects across the area. This is nothing unusual for coastal NC, and impacts are usually, for the most part, minor and more of an inconvenience than anything.

Now, with that said...imagine being in the shoes of the local EOC (don't just say "oh, err on the side of caution...what if???"). IF you evacuate and the storm stays offshore, you just cost the state and local economies likely millions of dollars in tourism for nothing...if you don't evacuate and the storm comes in closer/stronger than current forecasts indicate...you just potentially killed people, especially tourists who don't know how to deal with a hurricane and try to surf, swim, stay in low lying areas, etc.

So, which do you do? Time is ticking, and Hwy 12 will likely be overwashed in the usual spots by tomorrow afternoon or evening, and the seas will be too rough for the ferries to operate safely...do you evacuate, or just lock it down? I would not want to be in the hot seat dealing with this...you're screwed if you do, and screwed if you don't. There is no "right" answer, imo, and this storm couldn't be threatening at a worse time for coastal NC...

This is probably the best explanation of the situation for those that do not know. The only thing I would correct is that I would wager it wouldn't be millions of dollars lost to the area and state, but billions. Other than that, I would say, spot on.

[Time_Zone]

NOAA winds are indicating 55-60 KT

Yep. Hasn't really strengthened at all despite it's improved appearance. Good news. Hopefully it stays weak and doesn't get any stronger than a cat 1. As long as it keeps taking it's time like this, things don't look too bad. imo