NWS Melbourne AFD

[TampaFl]

Interesting. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert


FXUS62 KMLB 131906
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

.DISCUSSION...

...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS...
...VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE ISABEL ABOUT 1200 MILES ESE OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL FOLLOW OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WHICH
TAKES POWERFUL HURRICANE ISABEL NW...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IT MUST BE
REMEMBERED THAT THIS IS AN OUTLOOK AND TRACK ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD CAN BE AS MUCH AS 400 NAUTICAL MILES. ALTHOUGH IT
IS TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT IMPACTS ISABEL WILL HAVE ON EC
FL...AT A MINIMUM WE WILL SEE LARGE SWELLS AND POUNDING SURF AFFECT
THE COASTLINE BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SIGNIFICANT BEACH
EROSION. BASED ON CURRENT WAVE MODELS...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED AND COULD BE NEEDED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

LATEST DISCUSSION WITH NHC INDICATES ISABEL MAY SLOW DOWN AND REMAIN
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CURRENT TRACK MODELS. SUCH POWERFUL
SYSTEMS OFTEN PRODUCE THEIR OWN ENVIRONMENTS AND SOMETIMES DO NOT
INITIALLY REACT TO THE SUBTLE EXTERNAL FORCES ACTING ON THEM.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN THE N/NE
WINDS WED-FRI AS WE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ISABEL'S LARGE
CIRCULATION. WILL INDICATE WINDY ALONG THE COAST (20 MPH) AND BREEZY
INTERIOR.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXTENDING A WEAK
RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. THEN ISABEL'S LARGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WIND PATTERN. A LONG FETCH OF EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS PRODUCING
A MODERATE SWELL. THE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE LARGE AS
POWERFUL HURRICANE ISABEL MOVES NORTH OF THE BAHAMA BANK NEXT WEEK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
MONDAY.

[spaceisland]

This statement: LATEST DISCUSSION WITH NHC INDICATES ISABEL MAY SLOW DOWN AND REMAIN
SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CURRENT TRACK MODELS has an interest qoutient for Floridians directly dependent on the meaning of "slightly south and west." At a distance, a slight change can make for a huge adjustment given enough time. As a Melbourne, FL resident, I look forward to a clear NW motion which remains for several hours.

[Josephine96]

True to that Space... If it stays south and west.. it may keep us on our toes for a while.. We still need to watch it.. even when it starts moving WNW