ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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WilmingtonSandbar
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1561 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:56 pm

tolakram wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I said it last night, and I am sticking by it so far. I think first landfall is going to be Bald Head Island or Southport NC. Keep in mind, the beaches of Brunswick County are south facing beaches, and with the models trending west, Arthur could make a pit stop on his way to the Outer Banks.


A hit that far south and west would bring it inland into NC and not exiting until south of Virginia Beach. No model is showing that solution and the euro, though it's shifted west, has a left bias and is still just barely offshore. Now Beaufort, in my opinion, does need to keep a close watch on this one because a landfall there seems like at least an outside possibility.

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This model shows it pretty clearly. Those are the Brunswick County beaches on the north side of the storm with Bald Head Island Just east of 78W.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 01L_10.png
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#1562 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:56 pm

Arthur may very well end up with half of the ace of the entire 2013 season
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#1563 Postby KBBOCA » Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:58 pm

Here's a link to the latest briefing by the Morehead City NWS office:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/downloads/b ... iefing.pdf

Also, they've put together a summary of warnings / watches / expected impact by different kinds of threat. Very helpful:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EM_Brief.php
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Re:

#1564 Postby vacanechaser » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:ok af recon made the turn heading sw to NE ... should be a good one..




Is no one posting the data in the others thread?? It would be helpful. Not seeing any updates..


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Re: Re:

#1565 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:02 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:ok af recon made the turn heading sw to NE ... should be a good one..




Is no one posting the data in the others thread?? It would be helpful. Not seeing any updates..


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The guy who had been posting the data asked about 30 minutes ago for someone to take over as he had other local storms he had to track. Guess no one jumped on it. If I knew how I would have.
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Re:

#1566 Postby StarmanHDB » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:04 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...


A). One strong early season tropical storm on its way to becomming a hurricane really doesn't "prove" anything.
B). If the storm sticks to the plan as set by the latest forecast models and professional meteorologists, Arthur definitely will not be "fun" for anybody remotely near its track.

Just sayin.... :roll:
Last edited by StarmanHDB on Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1567 Postby weathernerdguy » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:06 pm

StarmanHDB wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...


A). One strong early season tropical storm on its way to becomming a hurricane really doesn't "prove" anything.
B). If Arthur sticks to the plan as set by the latest forecast models and professional meteorologists, it definitely will not be "fun" for anybody remotely near its track.

Just sayin.... :roll:

Sarcasm at the end for me.
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Re: Re:

#1568 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:12 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
stephen23 wrote:what's going on with this thing on radar presentation right now? In my opinion looked a lot better just an hour ago. Center looks to have gotten really elongated and ragged. Anyone else see that?


It doesn't look too shabby to me. Perhaps it's just headed a bit further away from the Melbourne radar and is still on the outside of Jacksonville short-range radar so the otherwise poor radar presentation would be due to radar seeing the higher cloud tops. Just a guess.


That's what it looks like, to me. It's farther from a radar now.
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#1569 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:13 pm

first time the sw quad has had 60mph.. recon about to do the pass well outside the center.. pressure already 994.. could be sub 990 ....
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1570 Postby CarolinaNBANFL » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:13 pm

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-73.00,26.84,2133

Neat graphic not sure what it is depicting but so NICE LOOKING. Showing the "hurricane" spinning along with other areas of energy moving.
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#1571 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:15 pm

convection on a increase in a big way.. most deeper yellows I have seen and all quad except NE.. maybe its finally really tapping that moisture plume from the SE
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#1572 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:15 pm

Getting that classic look, it shan't be long before it becomes a hurricane in my personal estimation.
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Re: Re:

#1573 Postby vacanechaser » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:16 pm

StarmanHDB wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...


A). One strong early season tropical storm on its way to becomming a hurricane really doesn't "prove" anything.
B). If the storm sticks to the plan as set by the latest forecast models and professional meteorologists, Arthur definitely will not be "fun" for anybody remotely near its track.

Just sayin.... :roll:


some of you take this seriously like you should.. however, someone making such a statement doesnt always mean they are asking for or wishing for death and destruction.. i think some of the off putting comments here at times can be a bit much.. its not always necessary.. JMO.. seems like some just wait to jump on folks..




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Re: Re:

#1574 Postby baitism » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:16 pm

StarmanHDB wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...


A). One strong early season tropical storm on its way to becomming a hurricane really doesn't "prove" anything.
B). If the storm sticks to the plan as set by the latest forecast models and professional meteorologists, Arthur definitely will not be "fun" for anybody remotely near its track.

Just sayin.... :roll:


Don't be that person...
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#1575 Postby Hammy » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:16 pm

55kt barb on the SW quad, which is the strongest we've seen so far in the weaker side.
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#1576 Postby TheAustinMan » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:20 pm

I've temporarily assumed the role of updating the recon thread, but others can help. 8-)
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#1577 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:24 pm

990mb
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1578 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:24 pm

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 990.0 mb (~ 29.23 inHg

Pressure still dropping gradually
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Re: Re:

#1579 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:29 pm

vacanechaser wrote:
StarmanHDB wrote:
weathernerdguy wrote:In 2013 the first hurricane was in September... Proves this season is likely going to be a fun one...


A). One strong early season tropical storm on its way to becomming a hurricane really doesn't "prove" anything.
B). If the storm sticks to the plan as set by the latest forecast models and professional meteorologists, Arthur definitely will not be "fun" for anybody remotely near its track.

Just sayin.... :roll:


some of you take this seriously like you should.. however, someone making such a statement doesnt always mean they are asking for or wishing for death and destruction.. i think some of the off putting comments here at times can be a bit much.. its not always necessary.. JMO.. seems like some just wait to jump on folks..




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http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team


Agreed, even though I can not fault enthusiasm people can easily get carried away. I remember a decade away, damn has it been so long, when I started posting on these very forums. I was often exited the first couple of years when storms were going to hit land then came the peak of the 2005 season and a Hurricane named Katrina. I had never imagined death, destruction and suffering on such a vast scale. Katrina humbled me and I've never seen storms the same since. If the devastation in South Florida from Andrew in 1992, which I witnessed first had as barely a teen, started my interest in Hurricanes than Katrina tempered it. As terrible as Andrew's effects were you didn't count the death toll in the thousands. For years after I wrestled with my guilt over finding such a phenomenon interesting, especially living most of my life in a region usually sheltered from the worst of such storms.

Now back to Arthur.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1580 Postby Alyono » Wed Jul 02, 2014 6:29 pm

strongest winds remain in the SEQ
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