Moving West

Chase224 · #1 Postby **Chase224** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 2:53 pm

Is it just me or the storm is moving more west then wnw and maybe the WNW was a wobble

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 2:56 pm

I actually looked at the satellite.. 1 of the infa reds and you might be right.. It started WNW then appeared to be headed back due west...

This storm is a powerful 1 and let me again use an analogy of her being a pretty girl but I wouldn't wanna be the 1 she kisses good night lol

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:05 pm

yup I see it too, and as predicted it was going to head back west. It will of course wobble wnw, wsw etc..

Agua · #4 Postby **Agua** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:09 pm

Hmmm... still looks WNW to me.

#5 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:11 pm

Chase...go to the GHCC site... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes and look at the 1km IR loop. Go back about 10 frames and zoom into the eye on high. I like this site because it gives 15 minute pics...sometimes 5 minute pics. You don't have to wait 30 minutes. When you get the loop....you can see the WNW motion over the last 2 hours. There was a wobble to the west a couple of hours ago. Remember a couple of days ago when you got wobbles to the SW but overall west motion? Now you have WNW with an occasional to the west. It is eyewall trochodial motions that cause it. If you had a spinning top that was not perfectly balanced...you would get the same effect.

Again...look at the GHCC site. Excellet shots...15 minutes pics...good zooms. Chose the north american IR middle top. The whole storm isn't in the pic...but for motion all you need is the eye.

#6 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:13 pm

Weatherman...could you link me to the sat loop where you are seeing the westward motion?

Thanks.

calidoug · #7 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:17 pm

Yeah, sorry, but it isn't going west any longer.

Clearly WNW (maybe even a touch *more* N than pure WNW) for the past 6 hours.

Looks like the models nailed another one.

Should be interesting for the VA/DE/NJ/NY folks...

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:18 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

have to factor the wobbles to the west as well for an overall motion.

Floridacane · #9 Postby **Floridacane** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:20 pm

This is a good water vapor loop... I see a wnw movement on this one.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:25 pm

This is an excellent view. As that low heads further e it will enclose that gap fulfilling the ridge and making Isabel have no choice but to move west or even wsw.

rlg · #11 Postby **rlg** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:28 pm

Is there somebody here who could interpret this steering wind pattern and how it relates to the future direction? Thanks

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

Josephine96 · #12 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:29 pm

I had a feeling it was still moving west.. if not maybe a hint WNW but mostly west

calidoug · #13 Postby **calidoug** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:31 pm

"As that low heads further e it will enclose that gap fulfilling the ridge [what the heck does that mean?]..."

Weatherman182001, What do you base that statement on? None of the models, nor any credible meterologists, are suggesting WSW movement in the future.

The storm has turned to the WNW. Why deny that? What do you have invested in a W to WSW track?

#14 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:31 pm

I think it has made the turn WNW as I though it would this morning (see "More concern for Florida" Thread"). I am almost certain that any jogs to the WSW are done...westward jogs may happen...but will become more and more rare. The WNW motion has begun and I think cali may be right...looking at the sat...it may be a little north of WNW. Unfortunately you can't get the motion for the vortex fixes because the eye is so large and the center is swirling around in there...and the lowest pressure is not staying right in the middle of the storm.

#15 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:33 pm

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

From the NHC

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:34 pm

calidoug wrote:"As that low heads further e it will enclose that gap fulfilling the ridge [what the heck does that mean?]..."

Weatherman182001, What do you base that statement on? None of the models, nor any credible meterologists, are suggesting WSW movement in the future.

The storm has turned to the WNW. Why deny that? What do you have invested in a W to WSW track?

So if the models don't agree it is not credible? Most meterologists will just report what the NHC anyhow.

I can have my opinions and have based it with proof. Something few have done.

#17 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:36 pm

Weatherman:"This is an excellent view. As that low heads further e it will enclose that gap fulfilling the ridge and making Isabel have no choice but to move west or even wsw."
THis is not the low that will pull the storm. It is the trough that is coming. There will be no more west or WSW movements...I would bet on that. Bet...anyone..anyone

holds out maxed out credit cards....

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:38 pm

That is a pretty weak trough for a Cat5 hurricane.

#19 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:40 pm

I think what calidoug and I are asking is what is the proof? All the models disagree. You have to have some real solid proof to disagree with all the avialable models. Even the toilet paper models are now in agreement (those are the ones I only print out when I run out of paper).

What is the meteorological reasoning? What is going to cause the ridge to not orient N/S and why is the trough not going to dig into the eastern GOM in 72-96 hours?

Guest · #20 Postby **Guest** » Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:40 pm

Hey Air Force - will cut up credit cards work? Anyway if I bet - I'll lose - LOL. For now I'll take your word.....

Moving West

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