ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane_Luis]

http://i.imgur.com/2wjwfBs.jpg

Anyone got a link to a .kml file that has higher resolution than this when zoomed in for Google Earth? Sorry to be slightly off-topic, but looking for better resolution when posting recon pics and there is no recon discussion thread.

EDIT: Fixed image link.

I sure that Google Earth has a Cloud Overlay somewhere, Its not the best but it does the job.

Tropical Storm Athur

[OuterBanker]

Most locals are thinking that not much is ging to happen. I'm seeing that quite a few just may be surprised. Most disturbing is how the Euro has shifted west with a 977 centered on the obx.

[SunnyThoughts]

105700 3118N 07829W 6962 03080 //// +072 //// 217078 083 069 028 01
105730 3119N 07831W 6983 03034 //// +074 //// 226080 083 071 032 01
105800 3120N 07832W 6948 03067 //// +080 //// 236071 079 073 030 01

couple of 83 flight level measurements First time in the 80s..I believe.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 031126
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 03/11:03:30Z
B. 31 deg 35 min N
078 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2952 m
D. 79 kt
E. 136 deg 15 nm
F. 225 deg 83 kt
G. 136 deg 19 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 7 C / 3045 m
J. 14 C / 3050 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0901A ARTHUR OB 21
MAX FL WIND 83 KT 136 / 19 NM 10:57:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 53 KT 314 / 17 NM 11:09:00Z
CENTER DROPSONDE SFC WINDS 270/13
EYEWALL RAGGED/BROKEN

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the beginning of the western side outflow channel starting to set up that is supposed to aid strengthening.

[ninel conde]

http://www.wvec.com/weather/radar?radar ... sz=lrg&c=y

thats why i think arthur will go west of hatteras. yesterday the radar echos around here were going west to east, now they are almost going due north.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Very muggy here in Hampton Roads this morning. Clouds whisking by. lots of moisture in the air. Reminds me of the Friday before Hurricane Ike hit when I lived in the Houston area back in Sept. 2008.

[TheStormExpert]

Won't be long before this storm is just as strong (if not stronger) as the strongest storm from last season which was Humberto with winds of 85mph, and pressure of 979mb.

Not surprised they increased the winds to 80mph at 8am with a minimal pressure of 983mb.

[tropicwatch]

http://www.wvec.com/weather/radar?radar=64440637&img=0&sz=lrg&c=y

thats why i think arthur will go west of hatteras. yesterday the radar echos around here were going west to east, now they are almost going due north.

I see what you are mentioning but overall it appears the front is still progressing east.

[NDG]

Arthur's circulation looks like has gone all the up to at least H25.

[xironman]

Won't be long before this storm is just as strong (if not stronger) as the strongest storm from last season which was Humberto with winds of 85mph, and pressure of 979mb.

Not surprised they increased the winds to 80mph at 8am with a minimal pressure of 983mb.

Actually I am surprised they did not go a bit higher, there were a number of 80kt SFMRs

[NDG]

NOAA's plane vortex shows 91 kt flight level winds but keep in mind that it is flying close to 8K feet above the ground, so the reduction is greater.

URNT12 KWBC 031207
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 03/11:31:46Z
B. 31 deg 44 min N
078 deg 45 min W
C. NA
D. 55 kt
E. 237 deg 30 nm
F. 315 deg 56 kt
G. 218 deg 21 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 13 C / 2463 m
J. 17 C / 2454 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. open sw
M. C25
N. 12345 / NA
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 1001A ARTHUR OB 25
cntr dropsonde sfc wind 120 / 6 kt
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 91 KT 081 / 19 NM 11:37:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 181 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[hurricanes1234]

I'm having problems accessing the NRL website for satellite images. It might be down again.

In terms of Arthur, this really looks to be organising based on the eye feature which is surrounded by deep convection and could be trying to clear.

[BobHarlem]

Hmm, Arthur may be a cat 2 (maybe nearing 3) by the time it gets closest to the OBX. Are the models still on the west side? This is going to catch a few people off guard if so.

[NDG]

Hmm, Arthur may be a cat 2 (maybe nearing 3) by the time it gets closest to the OBX. Are the models still on the west side? This is going to catch a few people off guard if so.

Latest early model runs, 12z run, show that the majority of them are just a tad west of the official track.

[tatertawt24]

He sort of reminds me of Ophelia. Hopefully he won't move up and down the coast 20 billion times like she did.

[TheStormExpert]

Hmm, Arthur may be a cat 2 (maybe nearing 3) by the time it gets closest to the OBX. Are the models still on the west side? This is going to catch a few people off guard if so.

Latest early model runs, 12z run, show that the majority of them are just a tad west of the official track.

Looks like the majority of the models seem to have it making landfall in the Outer Banks of NC.

[Raebie]

Not good. The further west, the worse for the OBX. That would put them on the bad side of the storm. I'm afraid this is gonna catch a lot of folks offguard.

[TheStormExpert]

He sort of reminds me of Ophelia. Hopefully he won't move up and down the coast 20 billion times like she did.

Ophelia(2005) is a bad analog track wise at least.