ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

Looks like the eye is now again on visible.

[baitism]

Looks like it is slowing down. Probably about to finally make that turn.

[tolakram]

from the FTP site

[tallywx]

Looks like it is slowing down. Probably about to finally make that turn.

Was noticing the same thing. Hesitating on radar a bit. Like it's hitting a wall to the north.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 031518
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 03/15:02:50Z
B. 32 deg 25 min N
078 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2906 m
D. 66 kt
E. 360 deg 0 nm
F. 297 deg 62 kt
G. 199 deg 18 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 13 C / 3046 m
J. 14 C / 3046 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 1101A ARTHUR OB 04
MAX FL WIND 62 KT 199 / 18 NM 14:57:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 79 KT 048 / 23 NM 15:10:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 179 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[theworld]

PinPoint Eye on Sat...

[NC George]

Just an observation, I'm in coastal NC and the humidity is insane. 72 percent humidity and a heat index of 99 degrees. I don't think dry air is going to be a problem any longer.



My opinion is just that, my opinion and should not be taken as fact or used to make important decisions. That's what the professionals are for.

It really got oppressive last night. Right at dusk the temps dropped and it seemed like it would be a pleasant evening, dew point was around 70. I dropped the top on my convertible as I was driving around. An hour later you could cut the air with a knife, the dew point rose to around 77 and I had to put the top back up so I could run the AC just to deal with the humidity. Even right now it's 92 with 67% humidity at my location. Pressure here is 1021 and steady, should start to drop soon as it appears the first rain bands aren't that far off; in an hour they have made it 1/3 of the way from Wilmington to Greenville.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 031531Z - 031800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CENTER OF STRENGTHENING HRCN ARTHUR WILL MOVE OVER THE
CAPE FEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CHANCE
FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND/OR
TORNADOES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE FEAR TO
CAPE LOOKOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EYE OF HRCN ARTHUR WAS LESS THAN 100NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MYR/CRE SC BASED ON 15Z NHC FIX. LEADING BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
SPREAD INLAND ACROSS NERN SC AND CAPE FEAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES WITHIN THIS LEADING BAND HAVE
EXHIBITED LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND SPARSE LIGHTNING...POSSIBLY DUE TO
BEING REMOVED FROM STRONGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HRCN
CIRCULATION. A SECOND OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND WAS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING CAPE FEAR FROM THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 30-35KT WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER CELLS SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE EXHIBITING
LIGHTNING...OCCASIONAL WEAK ROTATION...AND EVEN LINEAR/BOWING
STRUCTURES. LATEST KLTX VWP DEPICTS 35-50KT DEEP-LAYER SELY FLOW IN
THE 1-5KM LAYER RESULTING IN GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE
SR-HELICITY FOR STORMS TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 25-30KT.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN TSTM WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS
APPROACHING SEVERE...AS STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN
VIA CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. WITH TIME... STRENGTHENING SR-HELICITY
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE HRCN. THUS...WHILE INITIAL ACTIVITY POSES SOME CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS OF THE HRCN WILL LIKELY POSE AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL
SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR TO CAPE
LOOKOUT.

..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014


ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON 33927784 33977805 34247807 34577789 34757771 35077719
35117678 35067642 34977627 34707638 34677656 34647685
34607707 34547737 34327764 33927784

[tallywx]

Don't look now, but the 12Z GFS is taking this thing over the tip of Cape Fear and inland around Swansboro, NC and along the western/inland side of Pamlico Sound. .

[Bocadude85]

not sure if its a glitch in the radar or what but the radar presentation of Arthur has really degraded.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=LTX&loop=yes

[Hurricaneman]

not sure if its a glitch in the radar or what but the radar presentation of Arthur has really degraded.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=LTX&loop=yes

probably the radar reaching too far out for accurate depiction

[sicktght311]

Still here in northern obx in corolla (currituck coubty). No evacuations, stores seem pretty calm, minor gas lines. Seems a lot of People either got out of dodge, or are just sticking with what they've got and riding it out. Thankfully this far north I think barring a large tick west, we should stay out of a lot of he major sustained hurricane force winds, but still no pickle for us. Gonna be a violent evening.

[HurriGuy]

Okay this better start turning really soon.

[tolakram]

The big big picture

[cycloneye]

not sure if its a glitch in the radar or what but the radar presentation of Arthur has really degraded.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=LTX&loop=yes

probably the radar reaching too far out for accurate depiction

We have a plane that is collecting the realtime data.

[Frank2]

Pin hole eye - hmmm - perhaps an ERC, but time will tell...

[Bocadude85]

not sure if its a glitch in the radar or what but the radar presentation of Arthur has really degraded.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=LTX&loop=yes

probably the radar reaching too far out for accurate depiction

Yea I think you are right. The presentation is improving again. Also the southern eyewall is beginning to show up on short range radar now

[UpTheCreek]

Okay this better start turning really soon.

Amen to that, brother!

[Stormcenter]

Looks pretty good to me. IMO

not sure if its a glitch in the radar or what but the radar presentation of Arthur has really degraded.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=LTX&loop=yes

[ConvergenceZone]

Wonder if this has any shot of becoming a cat3 at its highest intensity?