ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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WilmingtonSandbar
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
NWS has allowed first tornado warning to expire at 12:45. they are keeping a close eye on the second cell that Aric just mentioned.
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Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
Stay safe those of you in the path of this storm. Praying for you all. I pulled out my favorite diagnostic tool, a piece of paper! Def has moved to the North-Northeast in the last few frames. My question is this, is the front strong enough to continue pushing Arthur further away from the coast, or even grab it and pull it away?
I am not a professional or amateur Met, I just love the weather. Please consult your local NWS.
I am not a professional or amateur Met, I just love the weather. Please consult your local NWS.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm at the north end of Topsail Island. Pretty strong squall moved through about an hour ago, ocean is churning. Most people here seem to be staying on the island.
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jaxfladude
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Purely just my worry and is not grounded in any fact whatsoever.
I pray that Arthur does not break the streak of a hurricane making landfall on the U.S. officially as a major!
And just before/on the 4th of July NO LESS!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I pray that Arthur does not break the streak of a hurricane making landfall on the U.S. officially as a major!
And just before/on the 4th of July NO LESS!
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by jaxfladude on Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Stay safe y'all
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brunota2003
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Aric Dunn
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looking at sat looks it ingested a little bit of dry air... presently being pulled into the center..
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seahawkjd
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Re:
brunota2003 wrote:Man oh man...I forgot Camp Seafarer and Seagull would be in session with it being summer! Guy on TWC was just talking about them bringing in buses to evacuate the kids. The camps are north of the Neuse River in Pamlico County.
Yeah I'm sure they'll take care of them. I fed those kids at night for years during the 90's. Too bad that their camp experience is being truncated.
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dexterlabio
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if it does strengthen to a Cat2 or just below Cat3, Arthur will be the strongest hurricane to hit the mainland United States since Ike in 2008.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Are they about to do a NW-SE pass?
That would be correct. Irene was 85 and Sandy/Isaac were both 80. So technically it's already the strongest since Ike to hit.
dexterlabio wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but if it does strengthen to a Cat2 or just below Cat3, Arthur will be the strongest hurricane to hit the mainland United States since Ike in 2008.
That would be correct. Irene was 85 and Sandy/Isaac were both 80. So technically it's already the strongest since Ike to hit.
Last edited by Hammy on Thu Jul 03, 2014 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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hurricanekid416
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
dexterlabio wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but if it does strengthen to a Cat2 or just below Cat3, Arthur will be the strongest hurricane to hit the mainland United States since Ike in 2008.
Sandy and Irene were pretty strong too
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
Good long range radar loop view from ILM - my opinion that it might be showing more of a NE motion - let's hope so...
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes
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seahawkjd
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
I guess we're getting close to the point where wobbles one way or the other make a difference. Here's what the local ABC affiliate is predicting on wind impacts.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Sourced from http://www.wcti12.com/news/hurricane-ar ... a/26776254
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Sourced from http://www.wcti12.com/news/hurricane-ar ... a/26776254
Last edited by seahawkjd on Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
hurricanekid416 wrote:dexterlabio wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but if it does strengthen to a Cat2 or just below Cat3, Arthur will be the strongest hurricane to hit the mainland United States since Ike in 2008.
Sandy and Irene were pretty strong too
Sandy was technically not a hurricane at landfall and Irene hits as a 75kt Cat 1
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Aric Dunn
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recon ... looking like it made more a turn.. ne ....
now comes the wobble watching... wobble to left brings it ashore.. wobble to right stays offshore..
now comes the wobble watching... wobble to left brings it ashore.. wobble to right stays offshore..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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NC George
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Re: Re:
seahawkjd wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Man oh man...I forgot Camp Seafarer and Seagull would be in session with it being summer! Guy on TWC was just talking about them bringing in buses to evacuate the kids. The camps are north of the Neuse River in Pamlico County.
Yeah I'm sure they'll take care of them. I fed those kids at night for years during the 90's. Too bad that their camp experience is being truncated.
The local BSA announced yesterday camps would be closed today.
http://www.witn.com/home/headlines/Tropical-Storm-Arthur-Causing-Local-Scout-Council-To-Close-Beaufort-County-Camps-265469911.html
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Bertha '96, Fran '96, Bonnie '98, Dennis '99, Floyd '99 
, Isabel '03, Irene '11, Matthew '16, Isaias '20, PTC16????
Avatar is heading into Florence 2018, moving friend's boat, only land between us and Hurricane Florence is Ocracoke Island!
, Isabel '03, Irene '11, Matthew '16, Isaias '20, PTC16????Avatar is heading into Florence 2018, moving friend's boat, only land between us and Hurricane Florence is Ocracoke Island!
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Aric Dunn
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recon
170530 3229N 07809W 6976 03009 9875 +110 +086 231082 084 071 008 00
170600 3228N 07808W 6970 03025 9894 +106 +081 229083 084 071 006 00
170530 3229N 07809W 6976 03009 9875 +110 +086 231082 084 071 008 00
170600 3228N 07808W 6970 03025 9894 +106 +081 229083 084 071 006 00
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion
Arthur will make landfall, it won't stay offshore because it's too close already.
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Yes, a right wobble would be good news - after my post last evening I checked the SST's in the warning area and actually the SST's are above normal even in the deeper ocean, and was hoping that outside of the Gulf Stream cooler pools of water would slow intensification (warmest ocean SST's are until August), but at least right at this moment Arthur isn't any stronger, so that's good...
Frank
Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Thu Jul 03, 2014 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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