ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[seahawkjd]

recon

170530 3229N 07809W 6976 03009 9875 +110 +086 231082 084 071 008 00
170600 3228N 07808W 6970 03025 9894 +106 +081 229083 084 071 006 00

Can someone suggest a good tutorial for reading those? I always meant to learn and never got around to it. Thanks in advance.

[ConvergenceZone]

even as close as this storm is to the coast, I still think it has a good 10 MPH increase left in it....I think it will top off at 100 MPH. Glad the NHC went with a Cat 2 though at peak, just to be on the safe side....

[Aric Dunn]

recon

170530 3229N 07809W 6976 03009 9875 +110 +086 231082 084 071 008 00
170600 3228N 07808W 6970 03025 9894 +106 +081 229083 084 071 006 00

Can someone suggest a good tutorial for reading those? I always meant to learn and never got around to it. Thanks in advance.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

[Frank2]

...the 231082 group is the wind direction and speed in knots...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

recon

170530 3229N 07809W 6976 03009 9875 +110 +086 231082 084 071 008 00
170600 3228N 07808W 6970 03025 9894 +106 +081 229083 084 071 006 00

Can someone suggest a good tutorial for reading those? I always meant to learn and never got around to it. Thanks in advance.

If you take a look at the brand new recon discussion page for Arthur, there is an excellent tutorial right at the top.

[HurriGuy]

After looking at this recon pass, safe to say I think IMO that 2PM advisory will be just about the same.

[Alyono]

I'd like to know where the 90 mph winds are. Seeing nothing justifying anything above 85 mph

[Jevo]

looking at sat looks it ingested a little bit of dry air... presently being pulled into the center..

Saw that as well.. He sure rid of that fast.. That CDO is like brick wall

[adam0983]

Where is the most likely place Arthur will make landfall. I am guessing somewhere between Wilmington and the outer banks? Just an opinion not a forecast.

[NDG]

Yes, a right wobble would be good news - after my post last evening I checked the SST's in the warning area and actually the SST's are above normal even in the deeper ocean, and was hoping that outside of the Gulf Stream cooler pools of water would slow intensification (warmest ocean SST's are until August), but at least right at this moment Arthur isn't any stronger, so that's good...

Frank

SSTs all across the coastal waters of NC are in the low to mid 80s, in a moving hurricane shallow waters will not have time enough to cool down for the hurricane to be affected.

[Aric Dunn]

tornado warning downtown wilmington...

[Aric Dunn]

looking at sat looks it ingested a little bit of dry air... presently being pulled into the center..

Saw that as well.. He sure rid of that fast.. That CDO is like brick wall

yeah radar showing convection filling in closer to the center.. wrapping up tighter..



good close up with radar overlay..

still that little pocket of dry air rolling around in there wont take too long get it out..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/i ... h-rgb.html

[Kohlecane]

Looks as if it could push for just a little more strength prior to landfall

[cycloneye]

You can follow Mark Sudduths chase of Arthur in Cape Hatteras by clicking on the stream link below. He is near the lighthouse.

ustream live

[CrazyC83]

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 125
PM UNTIL 200 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389...

DISCUSSION...RISK FOR SCTD SMALL SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LVL
MESOCYCLONES/POTENTIAL TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTN
THROUGH TNGT ALONG THE NC CST AS REGION IS GLANCED BY FAVORABLE NE
QUADRANT OF HRCN ARTHUR. AS THE HRCN CONTINUES NNEWD...ENVELOPE OF
DEEPER/MORE MOISTURE-RICH
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOST
STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW-LVL WIND FIELD. GIVEN EXISTING DEGREE OF
LOW-LVL INSTABILITY ON NRN AND ERN SIDES OF ARTHUR /PER LIGHTNING
STRIKES/...CONVERGENT FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO SPAWN SHOWERS/STORMS
CAPABLE OF WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 16045.


...CORFIDI

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a 4 hour movement toward 38 deg at 9.3 kts. Movement over the past hour toward 44.6 deg. at 13 kts. It's definitely turning as forecast.

[Batt2fd]

Recon only finding 80 mph winds...

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks as if it could push for just a little more strength prior to landfall

I agree. I don't think the strength is topped off quite yet....It might be close, but I think it has a little more left in it...

[ravyrn]

I'd like to know where the 90 mph winds are. Seeing nothing justifying anything above 85 mph

Yeah I'm not seeing it in the recon data. The highest I've seen is 71 knots in the SE quad.

[ravyrn]

recon

170530 3229N 07809W 6976 03009 9875 +110 +086 231082 084 071 008 00
170600 3228N 07808W 6970 03025 9894 +106 +081 229083 084 071 006 00

Can someone suggest a good tutorial for reading those? I always meant to learn and never got around to it. Thanks in advance.

This guide may be a bit more user friendly than the NOAA's