ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Starting to wonder if this makes a run at Cat 3 before landfall

[cycloneye]

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx · 22m

Latest Euro moves Arthur into Cape Lookout and up the Sounds with Outer Banks in eastern eyewall. #Arthur

[Alyono]

This is when the EC has been saying the winds will increase significantly

[supercane4867]

Just for reference...SSD bulletin now up to T5.0/90kt

TXNT23 KNES 031759
TCSNTL

A. 01L (ARTHUR)

B. 03/1745Z

C. 32.9N

D. 78.2W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THOUGH THE NEAR EYEWALL IS BROKEN LG...THE DISTANT BAND
EMBEDS THE EYE/EYEWALL AND MOAT .46 DEGREES IN LG TO ALLOW FOR A EYE
NO. OF 5.0. THE EYE HAS RECENTLY WARMED TO OW AND IS RINGED BY LG FOR
NO EYE ADJ. MAKING THE DT 5.0. MET IS ALSO 5.0. PT IS 5.0. THE FT IS
5.0 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
03/1338Z 32.1N 78.5W SSMIS
03/1551Z 32.6N 78.4W AMSU

...GALLINA

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to wonder if this makes a run at Cat 3 before landfall

could if it can work the remaining dry air out in time..

[Batt2fd]

['CaneFreak]

Eastern and northeastern eyewall look pretty good right about now

[Ivanhater]

Also amazing to see it look like this almost at the same spot it came off the coast as a weak low

[Kingarabian]

Really looks beautiful and terrifying.

[jaxfladude]

Im getting the word the euro shift to left again...

I take that is NOT GOOD???

[HurricaneHunter914]

Eye starting to show up more prominently on satellite.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... y/rgb0.gif

[Aric Dunn]

recon about to fly through that heavy convection developing

[adam0983]

Does anyone expect Arthur to be a category 3 by the next advisory at 5. This storm is truly incredible. I remember in 2004 when Hurricane Frances went from a Category 2 to a Category 4 in 2 hours. Arthur seems to be doing the same thing. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[brunota2003]

Starting to wonder if this makes a run at Cat 3 before landfall

http://i.imgur.com/M1d2XXh.jpg

I've seen that "cut" into the storm (going from outside the storm all the way into the eye) before on a couple different storms that then rapidly intensified 3 or 4 hours later (the full 30 knots+, and most of that occurred in a few hours). Not saying that that will happen with this storm, though. A rapid increase of 20 knots would bump winds up to 100 knots, and IF it occurred like the others, it'd start around 6 or 7 pm most likely...all of a sudden you'd see the storm "snap" together and boom. Granted, it could be dry air...or land interaction could prevent a rapid take off. Too hard to say at this point.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

recon about to fly through that heavy convection developing

I was about to say that, lets see what they report in a couple of minutes.

[Aric Dunn]

inner eyewall convection looking like its trying to increase.. if that can get closed of could see it deepen quickly..

[NDG]

[Kingarabian]

3 hours ago:

[Aric Dunn]

recon pressure 977.

[NDG]

82 knots at surface with underneath some of that convection.