ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#2141 Postby Time_Zone » Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:59 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:eye clearing out.....dry air looks to be pretty much gone.

Expect this thing to intensify at a fast pace now unless it decides to ingest even more dry air...which wouldn't be surprising with this storm lol.


I wouldn't consider dry air to be completely gone, at least until Arthur moistens up that hole in its central convection that you can easily pick out in the radar loops out of Wilmington.

Image


It's mixed out the majority of the dry air is what I'm saying. It's not affecting it's core nearly as much as say 2 hours ago.

With that said, I'm sure he'll ingest some more soon. It's a cycle with him.
Last edited by Time_Zone on Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2142 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 1:59 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:they dont even have a hurricane warning...


Do you think they'll extend the hurricane warning southward to include Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender counties? Kinda late I suppose but I wonder if they will.
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Re: Re:

#2143 Postby Duddy » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:oh just as suspected it has wobbled back left again.. all these wobbles bring it closer to the wilmington area

Hate to see this. Hope everyone stays safe!


they dont even have a hurricane warning...


Yeah we only have a watch. Though they did state in the last update that any deviation left would require an upgrade to a Warning.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2144 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:00 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Area of high reflectivity building on NE eyewall

Image


yep that will likely help lower the pressure and pull the center to it and vertically align everything and help mix out the dry air..

intensifying quite likely up to landfall..
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2145 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:01 pm

FYI, the HWRF slams NC OBX, and Virginia and Maryland, marching Arthur to NYC and New England as a strong albeit messy TS. It is the HWRF though.......latest run from WxBell Premium....... :flag:


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Last edited by TexasF6 on Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2146 Postby ninel conde » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:01 pm

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx · 60s

If you are on the NC Outer Banks, you need to complete preparations. Eye could pass west of Outer Banks, putting you in worst side of storm.
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#2147 Postby syfr » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:02 pm

Certainly seems to have turned
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#2148 Postby HurricaneBrain » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:02 pm

Arthur's progression
Image
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2149 Postby torrea40 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:04 pm

Eye of Arthur continues taking on a triangular shape, looks to be intensifying.
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#2150 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:04 pm

18z early model runs most of them still a little west of the official track.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2151 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:04 pm

Visible showing a nice defined eye..
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2152 Postby znel52 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:06 pm

This storm is going to be bad enough but if it wasn't continually battling dry air it's scary to think what could happen.
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#2153 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:06 pm

im getting doppler velocity estimates at around 4000 feet in that strong band ( after recon ) of 100+ knots ..

of course that base not storm relative..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2154 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:06 pm

ravyrn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:they dont even have a hurricane warning...


Do you think they'll extend the hurricane warning southward to include Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender counties? Kinda late I suppose but I wonder if they will.


IS Duplin also under a watch or warning?
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Re:

#2155 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:im getting doppler velocity estimates at around 4000 feet in that strong band ( after recon ) of 100+ knots ..

Give it a couple more hours...if it is doing what I think it is doing, you'll see stronger winds than that at 4000 ft...and those winds you're seeing now will be on the surface.

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#2156 Postby TheAustinMan » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:08 pm

Dropsonde has recorded 89 knots (102 mph) at the surface. (1859 UTC)
987mb (29.15 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 24.5°C (76.1°F) 95° (from the E) 89 knots (102 mph)
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2157 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:09 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:im getting doppler velocity estimates at around 4000 feet in that strong band ( after recon ) of 100+ knots ..

Give it a couple more hours...if it is doing what I think it is doing, you'll see stronger winds than that at 4000 ft...and those winds you're seeing now will be on the surface.

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Bold!!! lol
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#2158 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:10 pm

EC has 85-90KT winds over Hatteras. A repeat of Isabel
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Re: Re:

#2159 Postby ravyrn » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:10 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
ravyrn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:they dont even have a hurricane warning...


Do you think they'll extend the hurricane warning southward to include Brunswick, New Hanover, and Pender counties? Kinda late I suppose but I wonder if they will.


IS Duplin also under a watch or warning?


They don't seem to have anything other than a Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Last edited by ravyrn on Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ARTHUR - Hurricane - Discussion

#2160 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:10 pm

Image













Hopefully doesn't have enough time to work that dry air out. Could mean the difference between a cat 1 storm and a cat 2 storm.
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